Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana in California, is still holding on to a very narrow lead according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

SurveyUSA (10/15-10/18)
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you … Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you … lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
Certain Yes 48
Certain No 44
Not Certain 8

A SurveyUSA poll from early this month found Prop 19 winning 48 percent “yes,” -41 percent “no.” As expected with most ballot measures, it appears the undecided are breaking toward “no,” although the change is within the margin of error.

Importantly, the number of likely voters who plan to vote for Prop 19 seems to be holding remarkably steady. Almost every poll has found the percentage of voters planning to vote for the initiative hovering right around 50 percent.

Given the remarkable lack of movement in the polls, the incredibly high voter awareness of the ballot measure and the tendency for undecideds to break against an initiative, it’s passage or failure is going to come down to turnout. The young people who overwhelming support Prop 19 don’t tend to turnout in midterm elections, but if they do, they could put the initiative over the top. Either way, it will likely be an extremely close vote.