Pennsylvania is one of those states in the industrial Midwest where the public mood is incredibly inhospitable to Democrats. At the same time, the Democratic enclaves around Philadelphia and its suburbs could boost statewide candidates if they manage to hold serve elsewhere. The Senate race is intriguing for how Joe Sestak is running against Pat Toomey – painting him as too extreme for the state and comparing him to the likes of the state’s former conservative Senator, Rick Santorum.
Polling shows the race close, but with a consistent high-single-digit lead for Toomey over Sestak, a Congressman and former Navy Admiral. There’s a lot of material available on Toomey, a former Congressman and the recent chair of the Club for Growth. He’s managed to hide in the weeds relative to other tea party favorites like Christine O’Donnell, Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, but Toomey would be one of the most reliable conservatives in the entire Senate. He has a career as a derivatives trader, in particular innovating the practice of municipal interest rate swaps, which has devastated towns and cities all over the map. His record in Congress clearly favored deregulation and privatization at every opportunity, and sat to the right of Santorum’s record. He has consistently believed that deregulation was responsible for economic expansion. He basically wrote the Commodity Futures Modernization Act before it caught fire in Congress. He believes that FDR prolonged the Depression. He to this day supports privatization of Social Security, and he says he would have voted against a Chinese currency bill which was co-authored by a Pennsylvania Republican and supported by the majority of the state’s GOP caucus.
How is someone with a record this out of touch with where Pennsylvania is as a state on the verge of becoming their next Senator? Jesse Zwick says he’s boring:
It was during Toomey’s run for Congress in 1998, and even more so during his closely contested but successful fights to defend his seat in 2000 and 2002, that Toomey learned to hone his discipline and perfect his political pitch.
In many ways, Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District had come to mirror the state as a whole. The cities of Allentown and Bethlehem bestowed the district with a slight Democratic edge, but a growing white-collar population outside the city limits was steadily supplanting the region’s working-class, heavily unionized roots. To win, Toomey would have to play up union antipathy in the suburbs while preserving a pro-worker image among the district’s still sizable blue-collar population — and that’s exactly what he did.
“He’s labeled ‘Wall Street’ and he is,” grouses Ed O’Brien, the union leader who challenged Toomey for his House seat in 2000 and 2002. But try as he might to make the race about Toomey’s financial-sector roots, his support for a regressive flat tax, and his disregard for worker safety regulations, O’Brien couldn’t make the label stick.
“The thing of it was that he was able to convince people he was a moderate and make them leery of me,” O’Brien adds. “I was against this, that and that. He called me puppet of trial lawyers. He had more money from the trial lawyers than i did!”
Sestak is trying his best to drive up negatives against Toomey and expose him as a Wall Street lapdog and extreme-right Republican. Essentially he’s going to the well again with a tactic he used to defeat Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania primary. Then as now, Sestak had a measurable deficit until one ad shook up the race. Clearly he wants this to be that ad. It has all the earmarks: a spartan soundtrack with no music, the repetition of Toomey’s statement about his voting record being “pretty hard to distinguish from Rick Santorum’s,” and visuals that match up Toomey with others on the far-right like Sarah Palin.
Toomey saying “I would support legislation in Pennsylvania that bans abortion, and I would suggest penalties for doctors who perform them” is the only substantive legislative piece in the ad. Sestak is also trying to use the Chinese currency bill, enormously popular in Pennsylvania, to throw Toomey on the defensive.
But basically, Sestak is trying to paint Toomey as unacceptably conservative. In past Toomey campaigns for the House, that hasn’t worked. We’ll see if Sestak can close the gap in the final weeks.



96 Comments
Sestak’s tv ads are devastating. Can’t believe Toomey is even in the running.
(and I wouldn’t call PA a Midwestern state)
certainly not in the Midwest by any stretch
A WallStreet Trader is winning why just how bad is our candidate is he pulling his punches? Is Rahm shorting him cash?
The Lake alone has enough material to destroy any
He has a career as a derivatives trader, in particular innovating the practice of municipal interest rate swaps, which has devastated towns and cities all over the map.
My bold
Well, good luck to Joe but he has an uphill battle given that the democratic base is not particularly enthused. Maybe he should attack on SS and say he will save it from WS and cuts. I also like the idea that working people need a helping hand, like an increase in the minimum wage. I mean if they want a class war let’s give them one. Why should WS make all those millions?
Ask Pat to explain how the entire Derivatives Market is not a Ponzai scheme that made him rich and cost us our homes and jobs.
Live in southeastern PA, one mile from the Delaware line. Never heard PA referred to as a Midwestern state, but then again, Penn State is in the Big Ten.
Will be going door-to-door prior to the election to encourage Dems to come out and vote for Sestak and the local slate.
The wild card in the race is the President. The gut feeling is that Sestak will do better without his support.
Your local whats your feelings on the race so far?
I presume you are talking about credit default swaps. The regs on those still have to be written. Most of those outstanding will likely be exempted, I would suppose, as you noted. the question is what the regs will be on future CDS. But in the end, there will always be risk out there. I don’t think anyone knows how to eliminate it. Too big to fail is still with us but if you are the first to fail, then you may be gone. That could have a bracing effect on some. (I hope.)
Now THAT is music to my ears!
But O might help in Philly?
It all depends on D turnout. If something happens to motivate Democrats to go out and vote, Sestak wins.
Obama’s antics of late have not been helping.
Absolutely he should make that a big deal. He is one of those who caused this mess.
Toomey is a radical — he headed the Club for Growth, which is Ayn Randian in its views. He needs to be painted for who he is: a radical free-trader and deregulator who will turn over the Social Security fund to his former buddies, Wall Street derivatives traders.
Sestak closed fast against Arlen, too. I think he likes coming from behind as the underdog. I hope he can do it again next month.
(Adding: I expect to be disappointed fairly early on by Senator Sestak, should be be elected. But Toomey is actually scary in a way Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell are not.)
He will not help if he comes to Philly insulting folks as he’s been doing of late. Philly will run him out of town.
Plus there is no way you can explain how they are not a Ponzai scheme:)
Geez, if the president can’t go to a safe place like Philly, he must really be fucking up.
Short version he DIRECTLY got rich as we lost our homes and jobs gambling with imaginary money he didn’t have.
I’m trying to take our messages down for the election so low information voters can get it in the space of a commercial.
O they are nothing more than gambling, that is for certain. b/c they have no margin reguirements. It’s just “trust me”.
McCain never went to the South Side of Chicago:)
Gambling with Imaginary Money sounds like a good explanation/sound bite. I want Cred if the Dems use that one:)
Absolutely agree with your take of the threat that Toomey presents. As the Delaware County replacement for Curt Weldon, is record as a Democrat is acceptable. Do not believe that he will change skin color as quickly as the President did.
You people clearly don’t live around PA , or at least SE PA; can’t speak for the other side of Alabama… I am also thrown by the thought that PA is midwestern, but there is a dilemma. PIT and PHL are apparently very different places (disclaimer, I have spent no time in PIT apart from the airport, please set me straight if I am wrong).
Toomey has been advertising on the TV machines for _months_, and everywhere else as well – I frequently see ads on TPM. Sestak ads have only been coming up for the last few weeks. I agree that they are hard-hitting, and I am pleased to see that. They are trying to tie Toomey closely to looser Rick Santorum. Of course, way too many people voted Ricky into office in the first place, so I am not sure that this is a good strategy.
Of course, the Plila media market covers DE, so I also get to see Chrisey OD’s bizarro ad, as will as Chris Coons white-bread offering. I guess they figure CO’D will hang herself? I hope that they are ready for last-minute ad buys.
That is definitely a good one and now he wants to gamble with our SS by giving it to WS. And he wants to cut it as well.
Evidently you don’t know Philly.
Oh and TCU, it’s a_Ponzi_ scheme, as that was the man’s name.
I have no idea where you get “high single digits.” The most recent numbers I saw this week showed Joe within the margin of error. And as you know, Joe has a singular history of closing very strong. Please re-check the data before you repeat the RSCC meme…
Do you think ads saying Pat DIRECTLY got rich as we lost our homes and jobs gambling with imaginary money he didn’t have would be better in that area than trying to link him to Rick?
I’m looking for a message we can rally the voters with.
OK then. Is there anybody who can help in Philly? clinton?
That line adds too and improves my message:) Thanks
Pennsylvania is one of the original 13 colonies, making it, by definition, part of New England.
That being said, they did elect Santorum. I guess they have short memories there.
Sorry correction noted but to late for me to edit:(
I have little doubt that Sestek will be much more than an Obama “yes” man. But I can’t for the life of me see how a Pat Toomey can win or a Russ Feingold can lose.
Scary.
Is Santorum the right message? Doesn’t do much for me but I like the idea of gambling with imaginary money on homes and now SS. he should try it.
Don’t forget he took our jobs!
Bill Clinton remains extremely popular in Philadelphia.
and SS is the largest Ponzi scheme ever inflicted on mankind !!
Every GOPer is getting cash from the same guys who got richer for 8 years with the Bush tax cuts to the rich, who got cash one way or another from the bank bailout, who fund that pack of Fools the Tea Party!
Voting GOP is voting for another bank bailout paid for by our Social Security!
Time to run against the inbred Reverse Darwin Economic Elite!
I don’t know enough about Pennsylvania to answer that intelligently but at first glance, it looks more like Tim Kaine’s “let’s remind everybody how much Bush sucked” strategy. I like Sestak and I hope the ad helps him. Pointing out what a nutjob Toomey is can’t hurt his chances.
Define Ponzi scheme.
How tiresome. Evidently YOU don’t know Philly. Did you see where they welcomed Donovan McNabb back with a standing ovation? Did you see where they cheered the Atlanta Brave who helped intercept an outfield streaker last month? I personally watched Phillies fans congratulate Brian McCann’s mother – sitting in the visitors’ family section – when her son hit a homerun against the Phils. You simply repeat the New-England-centric-ESPN criticism without first-hand observation. How parochial.
:Do you think ads saying Pat DIRECTLY got rich as we lost our homes and jobs gambling with imaginary money he didn’t have would be better in that area than trying to link him to Rick?”
In a word – NO. It’s still too abstract, it’s not enough. Pat Toomey wasn’t anyone’s mortgage broker. Actually, as far as I know he’s been out of that world for a while. I think that makes it problematic to try to pigeon-hole him into the Wall street as a major attack.
Toomey is far to the right on social issues, this needs to be addressed as well, which the Santorum comparisons hit.
Read my comment at 4
Social Security is paid for first of all, second SS is not a $600 trillion Ponzi scheme.
And voting Democratic will be better because ______________ ? Look, I’m not going to vote GOP but I’m going to have to hold my nose awfully tight to vote for my Dem Rep. I’m so very tired of picking who sucks less. This is the United States. We should be able to do better than this.
Agree with you, the folks likely to vote for Sestak don’t lie awake at night worrying about Rick Santorum. Sestak could go for the jugular if he tied Toomey to an attack on SS.
Congratulations! In one sentence you removed every shred of credibility you might have had. If that’s what you think, then your understanding of both SSI and Ponzi schemes is too shallow for you to comment on them intelligently.
I sat in the stands at Franklin Field when the whole stadium booed the sitting mayor when his name was announced. That’s the Philly I know.
He’s Club for Growth he got paid to push deregulation which caused the crash. He made money on the Ponzi scheme and got out in time.
Still not direct enough of a message ok I will work on that and and or ask for suggestions.
Just don’t vote Blue Dog but yes I get your anger.
Pennsylvania is in the Northeast, not the Midwest.
:-)
Nice take down Billy Goat:)
Unfortunately, mine is barely left of the blue dogs.
I got Feingold I can vote for him no problem.
We know who Club for Growth is.
We are in the minority.
I understand your argument, but it is weak from an advertising standpoint. Most do not have the information (or in fact agree with the simplistic anti-tax rhetoric). I like the Santorum-like ad, as it places Toomey in a known frame of reference.
Of course, this will hurt not help in some parts of the state (where I presume the ad is not running).
(sorry, in fact, not i fact)
I bet having a guy like Feingold to vote for granted not perfect could help down ticket Dems by getting us to the voting both.
But not having anyone like Feingold running will really hurt us in some states.
Well both of my SENATORS are Republican and in fact one of them is the last Republican I ever voted for, (back in the very early 90s), but that was before she too became just another teabagger.
I’m going to vote in order to vote for Bill White. I’ll have to decide about my Rep then. I certainly won’t be voting for the Republican alternative but if there is a Green candidate, I’ll probably chose that one.
If we push this message we might get lucky and force him to deny it. Voters might not understand the explanation but they will understand waffling on a question. Emotional Choice voters do sense weakness without need for understanding the facts.
We need an election map of Progressives running in state elections and maps where there are no Progressives in purple states Lefties not showing up should doom the Blue Dogs.
We need maps of Tea Baggers in purple states they should lose also.
Yes, but we also sent Santorum packing. That was a happy happy day indeed!
It’s true that most voters hate what Republicans stand for. That being said, Republicans have figured out that it doesn’t matter what they stand for, as long as they do it unwaveringly. Just enough swing voters would rather have people sure of bad policy than waffling on good policy. The Democrats have interpreted that to mean that they should be waffly Republican light. People that stupid are unqualified for and don’t deserve to win leadership roles.
TCU@ 58: And you think these people come to the polls? Good luck with that, I am unconvinced.
Signing off on here near PHL…
And not just for Pennsylvanians, may I say? :)
Emotional Choice voters are Tea Baggers racist Tea Baggers not all emotional Choice voters are evil but the evil ones are energized to vote GOP. The more we give in to fear and hate the more emotional making judgments with the lizard brain instead of logic we become.
We can all get pushed to lizard mode under the right conditions. Combine that with the Authoritarian trait of blaming the out group for all their problems and we get Tea Baggers.
Nite Good Talk:)
sounds right. I heard something like that on KO last night.
I live in a market that gets the ads for PA campaigns and I gotta tell you, on the one hand, Toomey comes off as very likable and on the other hand, I have no idea what Sestak stands for. Were those ads the basis of my vote, Toomey would be a easy choice. Sestak is an inept campaigner and Toomey is very good at projecting Mr Reasonable Nice Guy, it’s that simple. People like Toomey.
Don’t go off on low information voters. How many of you voted for Obama because you believed him? There was a lot written about Obama as a public figure that was on the web and I can report, having read everything I could find, Obama’s presidency was described in the career that led up to it. We’re all low information voters when we engage emotionally.
All the more reason for Sestak to point out what an insane nutbag he is. Those low information voters are just starting to tune in and if they see a “nice guy” without any data one what an extremist zealot he is, then they may live to regret it. That’s probably exactly what happened in Santorum’s case. People saw a “nice guy” and didn’t realize what an unhinged lunatic he was until it was too late and then he lost by huge margins.
Now where have we heard that before?
well put and exactly right – take it from a PA native
This is bad a great message won’t save a bad campaigner.
Just the racist ones. We didn’t belive Obama we agreed logically with him. It was the ideas that triggered our emotion. The GOP and Obama are mistaken to think we have a cult of personality.
Granted a non racist emotional choice voter could have picked up he was lying assuming Obama is not a Sociopath. A racist one would just assume he was lying because he’s Black.
Obama was able to deceive us because he lied but now that we know better we will take him apart.
We are not GOPers who believe and wait decades like the GOPers waiting since Reagan for the GOP to end abortion.
How many GOP Presidents appointed how many Supreme Court judges but still the anti abortion voters wait?
Us we don’t wait Obama is like a man who comes home late to his wife smelling of cheap Wallstreet perfume.
Us we are the wife who the next day files for divorce.
GOP voters believe what ever their Man tells them.
Agreed but to do this he needs more and better tv ads and a better stage presence.
For the record, PA voters were not wildly supportive of Santorum when he was first elected in 1994. He won because his Democratic opponent Harris Wofford ran a horrible campaign.
Geographically, no – ideologically, yes, with the exception of the SE corner of the state. Most political observers (and many natives, including me) believe the Midwest begins (again, ideologically) somewhere just west of Harrisburg.
The utter decimation of the manufacturing base in PA is analogous to the same situation throughout the Midwest (and in fact the entire country).
I used to drink with felons and low information voters who would not drink with stupid unless she was hot.
Low information is not stupid most of the time just to busy to keep up with politics or like us get do the research to get past the lies. Thats why the GOP constantly repeats their lies.
The Media does not expose the lies. Lou Dobbs for example kept his CNN show after saying immigrants spread leprosy.
Stuff like that just invites violence.
And because he was from the western part of the state, which is wildly conservative (thank you, Richard Mellon Scaife – you moron) and, thanks to Pittsburgh, just populous enough for that to make the difference.
You and I may find Santorum’s views repugnant, but he wasn’t, isn’t, “an unhinged lunatic.” And Toomey isn’t “an insane nutbag.” He’s a very right wing millionaire who’s done extremely well extending his beliefs into his business practices.
I don’t agree with Toomey. Sestak is still an inept campaigner, and I have no idea what he stands for. Interesting, this election, because the other PA senator, Bob Casey, he of the house of Casey, is quietly one the more rightward Democrats in the senate.
Ah, yes.
Thats one problem we can’t fix here. A better message might help but yes we need to screen candidates better for campaign skills like personality and public speaking.
I loved Jimmy Martin for the senate in Georgia. His wife is a powerhouse in her own right, masters in accounting, a solid resume of experience. Two for the price of one, indeed. But Saxby Chambliss, SAXBY CHAMBLISS, for christ’s sake, beat Martin in a run off. Hey, no accounting for taste? What can I tell you. Jim Martin did his best, I sent money, Chambliss is in the senate. End of story.
Read The Big Sort. Fascinating.
Yes, he is. A sampling:
That Toomey, without coercion, said he is proud to be a carbon copy is Toomey’s problem, not Sestak’s, and your claim that you don’t know what Sestak is for is confounding, seeing as you are clearly able to find websites.
No, he isn’t. I don’t agree with him, but that’s not evidence of unhinged lunacy–in either case.
well, I went to college in western PA and it might as well be WV or KY.
Re Sestak, I have heard him speak on TV many times. And, I might agree with his stance on issues, but I find him very difficult to listen to. His voice and his speech patterns grate on my nerves.
Did you even read that shit he said and did? Where are your links refuting his unhingedness?
Going for the the jugular is something the would be left needs to practice. Im not going to use the various toungue in cheek names we have for the right any more, such as reichwing, wingnut, teabagger, or especially “far right”.The “far right” is fascism. Im just going to identify them all as Fascists. It makes sense since most of them are but my real gripe is the way they abuse “Socialism” by constantly, absurdly, insisting that Obama and Biden or Pelosi and freinds are “socialists”. Proving that your average fascist republican voter dosent know anything about Socialism except that a Socialist just a something a real amerkin calls someone whos not,like a n***er or a f***ot.
You’re entitled to your opinion. I disagree. Denigration isn’t useful and doesn’t convince or persuade. Toomey projects likable, Sestak is a cipher and, by timncguy at #83, an annoying speaker. I try to vote issues and actual career history but all of us get emotionally swept away at times. I fell in love with Bill Clinton and learned a hard lesson from that political romance: politicians are useful or not useful. That’s all there is to them that matters. That’s their view of voters, after all; we should return the favor.
BTW, an acquaintance who was raised in Pittsburgh told me that western PA is culturally mid West. I’ll take her word for it.
No.
It’s not a Ponzi scheme.
You are incorrect.
Santorum was a historic loser in his bid for re-election, too.
Nobody likes a loser.
I don’t think golfingary, himself, believes that. It was a follow on to the remark at #6. As in, Yeah, and ask him about this, too.
I envy you. You’re right that KBH & JC are both post turtles, but my rep. is Kevin Brady (TeaBagger-TX08).
My other choice is Kent Hargett (D), who lost on ’08 by 80-20, and while he’s a likable enough fellow, most people here are either teabaggers (like Brady, and as you may have guessed from the margin in ’08), or have no clue who Hargett is despite his best efforts to actually get some press coverage!
The part I can’t figure out is that TX08 is actually suffering quite a bit economically speaking, and has been doing so because of the economic policies of the R’s, but the people here are strongly supportive of those who will continue to limit their economic opportunities (prolly the whole fear-of-teh-GAY thing, mostly, but definitely some keep out the .gov as well), and you just can’t get past the “I’m a REPUBLICAN!” to actually discuss issues with them. Faux Snooze & El Rushbo dominate the day, and people just can’t hear anything else.
Well said, ThingsComeUndone@71! I couldn’t have put it more articulately myself! Bravo!
Sestak should have stayed in the house a bit longer and let Specter have his swan song. What would that have cost him? More to the point, what is his decision to run against Specter going to cost all of us who live in PA.
And just to reiterate:
“The most recent CNN/Time Poll has the race deadlocked:
* Sestak 45% – Toomey 45%, with 10% undecided.”
If you KNOW Joe Sestak, you know that he runs a very effective campaign. He began with a very positive campaign against Spector, if you recall, but when Spector went negative just once, Joe unloaded, including that one ad that became the turning point. In this campaign, Joe has been retail politicking relentlessly, something Toomey apparently finds distasteful. It will turn out to be the case that Joe’s supporters are indeed the more “likely voters” come November 2.
An “inept campaigner?” Based on what? Please show me an election he has lost. Oh, right, you can’t – because there isn’t one…
And talking about unhinged… Just last week, Santorum stated that the poverty rates among blacks and women were at the lowest in history under Bush. Well, of course that’s nonsense – they were at lows under Clinton, and climbed every single year under Bush, to near-historic highs. He apparently still thinks (despite his own personal experience) that he can spout lies relentlessly and no one will ever fact-check him. That kind of self-delusion is the very definition of “unhinged.” QED.