The latest SurveyUSA poll of likely voters now has Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize and regulate marijuana in California, leading with 48 percent certain to vote yes and 41 percent certain to vote no.

SurveyUSA (9/30-10/3)
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you
Certain Yes 48
Certain No 41
Not Certain 11

This is a slight improvement from a SuveryUSA poll two weeks ago, which had its winning margin at only 47 percent to 42 percent. However, the change is within the margin of error, and the lead is still slightly below the SurveyUSA high for Prop 19 of 50 percent to 40 percent set back in July.

An important point is that early voting officially began Monday in California. For Prop 19 to be holding steady or slightly improving as the first votes are being cast is good news.

All polling of Prop 19 has a remarkably high level of consistency. All pollsters have found the yes vote leading the no vote by a margin of 7 to 11 percentage points and have found the percentage of people committed to vote yes to be right around 50. This is critical because with the high level of media attention about Prop 19, the assumption is that most people who are still undecided about it right before they vote will tend break towards no.

We have seen very little fluctuation in support for Prop 19, a very small number of undecided voters for a ballot measure, and remarkably high voter awareness. It seems most voters have firmly already made up their minds about the issue of marijuana legalization.

This is why it seems Prop 19′s passage or failure will probably come down to turnout. Fortunately for Prop 19 supporters, there is growing evidence that Prop 19 is motivating young voters, who overwhelmingly favor legalization, to turn out for this midterm election.

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