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The latest SurveyUSA poll of likely voters now has Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize and regulate marijuana in California, leading with 48 percent certain to vote yes and 41 percent certain to vote no.
SurveyUSA (9/30-10/3)
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you
Certain Yes 48
Certain No 41
Not Certain 11
This is a slight improvement from a SuveryUSA poll two weeks ago, which had its winning margin at only 47 percent to 42 percent. However, the change is within the margin of error, and the lead is still slightly below the SurveyUSA high for Prop 19 of 50 percent to 40 percent set back in July.
An important point is that early voting officially began Monday in California. For Prop 19 to be holding steady or slightly improving as the first votes are being cast is good news.
All polling of Prop 19 has a remarkably high level of consistency. All pollsters have found the yes vote leading the no vote by a margin of 7 to 11 percentage points and have found the percentage of people committed to vote yes to be right around 50. This is critical because with the high level of media attention about Prop 19, the assumption is that most people who are still undecided about it right before they vote will tend break towards no.
We have seen very little fluctuation in support for Prop 19, a very small number of undecided voters for a ballot measure, and remarkably high voter awareness. It seems most voters have firmly already made up their minds about the issue of marijuana legalization.
This is why it seems Prop 19′s passage or failure will probably come down to turnout. Fortunately for Prop 19 supporters, there is growing evidence that Prop 19 is motivating young voters, who overwhelmingly favor legalization, to turn out for this midterm election.
30 Comments
Not to beat a dead horse, but even NORML isn’t talking about this:
SB 1449 does not mean a marijuana infraction will not go on your record. It just means it will not go on your record as a crime. This is because an infraction is technically a civil offense, not a crime.
Your prospective boss will not care. He will go to the local court website like this: https://ocapps.occourts.org/Vision_Public/SearchCase.do He will type in your name and–voilà–”Possession of Marijuana”.
Prop 19 is the only way to avoid any record.
Good point bmull.
This is very good polling news and what it tells us is that we have to work hard to get our voters out to the polls (either early on election day). This can happen but it will depend on supporters taking action with things like the phone bank and canvassing.
I think it’s a little misleading to suggest that Prop 19 “is the only way to avoid any record.”
It will still be against federal law in California, and if you’re charged with violating a federal law, that most certainly will be on one’s record.
Even if you have a prescription from your doctor?
So if I with a felony pot record go to Cali I can get a good job for once?
How many pot crimes are handled by the feds? In Illinois I’m a class 2 felon never mind the degree or you can judge for yourself by my comments and diaries my intelligence but getting a job that does not require my back to break something I can use my mind at?
I swear the Feds did not charge me but am I free in Cali?
In Ca they only seem to pay attention to the big growers. Not much else.
Yes, I believe so.
Obviously local federal prosecutors are free to use their judgement and not prosecute based on the state’s obvious wishes, but technically, the feds can go after patients, growers, and distributors. Only one I’m unlcear on as to whether they’ve broken a law is the Doctor that writes the prescription.
The legal stuff is what we need to debate can we get the Lake Lawyers to weigh in this effects me personally.
Almost no one in American is charge with federal marijuana violations
Girl I got a felony record can I finally get a job a B.A with my intellect deserves? How many FDLers would write me a job rec if I asked?
My back is done
People in Ca are pretty casual about things – especially pot. Don’t imagine you would have too much trouble getting a job – if there are any jobs.
Is that snark?
Common Sense says Legalize It
We voters have a chance to vote for Liberty and Common Sense by approving Prop19, the decriminalization of marijuana. A “YES” vote proclaims that the multi-billion dollar “War on Drugs” is misguided, expensive, and dangerous and damaging to America. Currently, there are no effective controls on pot distribution. The current reality is a failure.
Mexico is falling apart, turning into multiple warring narco-states, right on our border. Our “war against terrorism” is weakened as well-funded
organizations perforate our borders. Marijuana is the Mexican drug gangs
biggest money-maker; since they produce the pot but just haul the cocaine. Eliminating their pot business plan will hurt them greatly while upping our security.
We spend billions chasing pot and trying/jailing offenders. The prohibition builds resentment and disrespect for laws. People would better cooperate with law enforcement and immigration, IF they felt that they weren’t criminals in their own country. Marijuana is relatively benign, but ONLY for adults. The worst side-effect of pot is being busted.
Marijuana possession convictions can endanger future student loans or aid, which deprives America of another college grad. Every parent should see that their child’s future is endangered for no reason.
Law enforcement against prohibition website: >http://www.leap.cc
Just a statement of fact, the vast majority of people are brought up on state not federal marijuana violations
That’s true, but whenever it’s the feds doing the arresting, it’s federal laws they’re charged with. And DEA operates in all 50 states I believe. And the feds have gone after growers and distributors in California since it became “legal” for medial marijuana, as well as in Denver IIRC.
I think I read somewhere that marijuana violators make up nearly half of the federal prison population. Might be misremembering that though, I’m gonna go do some googling.
Cool I am heading your way in January :)
Ugh, I can see my memory was very WRONG on the federal prison numbers. I’m looking for more recent numbers, but from the early 2000′s it was 1 in 6 in federal prison were there for marijuana crimes.
I found a link from NORML that said half of all arrests made in the US were related to marijuana, so I think that’s where I got the 50% number in my head.
Sorry.
“Marijuana is the Mexican drug gangs biggest money-maker;”
Considering that pot is the number one cash crop in several states here in America, I can’t imagine the need to import it.
Mind boggling. More than 20 million people in America smoke a quarter ounce a week or more. More than 500 joints per second.
Most of those are growers, distributors and smugglers a la Steinhatchee Seven. Ran into Steve couple weeks ago matter o’ fact.
Yes, I agree. It’s usually the states that arrest for mere possession. nearly all of federal prosecutions are for growers/distributors.
But Jon’s remark floored me. I’m quite sure that there are plenty of folks in federal prison right now for violating marijuana laws that would beg to differ.
And even though they (the feds) don’t usually arrest for simple possession, the fact is they can. I’d rather see the law changed rather than leave it up to the discretion of anyone. I hope Prop 19 is a first step, but IMO there will still need to be steps that follow.
If Prop 19 wins convincingly, I think it gives more political support for changing the federal laws. That’s why I not only hope it wins, I hope it wins big. 55-45 would be really good, IMO.
One of the worst bi-products of prohibition, second only to arrest and conviction, is the certain knowledge of young people that the “reasoning” behind the prohibition is a lie. Younger people know that marijuana doesn’t destroy brain cells or cause overdoses. Your brain does not turn into a fried egg from smoking pot, and weed is not an addictive substance (habituating maybe, but not addictive).
Yet when they hear crusaders for criminalization list the reasons to keep marijuana illegal, this is what they hear, and they know it’s all lies. Such deception engenders disrespect for the “leaders” who make other laws as well, and causes other laws and prohibitions to be questioned. Lies about marijuana make people wonder if the reasoning behind other laws, particularly other drug laws, isn’t a pack of lies as well. This can be a very dangerous situation considering the need for young people to be able to believe warnings about dangers coming from responsible adults, not to mention the outrageous penalties associated with criminality.
Yes.
Thank you. I’ve been harping on that for years.
In Colo, doctors don’t write prescriptions for medical marijuana (because MMR is federally forbidden from being a prescribable drug); they fill out a “physician certification” stating that due to “this patient’s medical history and current medical condition,… that this patient may benefit from the medical use of marijuana.” A disclaimer on the certification form says, “This assessment is not a prescription for the use of marijuana.” So even though there’ve been blanket threats to doctors for recommending MMR in Colo, they’re not subject to criminal prosecution for writing illegal prescriptions. Don’t know about Calif.
Yes on 21. Save the state parks. For a minor increase in the vehicle tax, we can save the state parks.
Yes on 25. Make passage of the budget a simple majority. CA currently requires a super majority to pass a budget. Only 5 right wing nut jobs from the Central Valley can hold up the entire budget process. Block revenue. Require cuts only. Time to change back to a simple majority. Free the state from the evil repub minority. Act now. At least we can charge an oil depletion tax on the big oil companies. Texas and Alaska both charge oil depletion. Why can’t California? Because 5 repub block raising any revenue. Screw them. Vote YES on 25
Cannabis is less physically addictive than caffeine, while the so-called “gateway drug” theory is a complete fantasy, and it was just recently called “half-baked” as a result of a scientific study. CNN reported that Cocaine use has dropped sharply, by 30% since 2002, which is really good news. I worked in addiction medicine for years, and this is what I can advice on the matter: Any suppression of Cannabis use will be immediately followed by an increase in alcohol/hard drug/prescription drug abuse! You don’t believe me? Then maybe you will believe the Big Alcohol lobby that is financing the Cannabis Legalization opponents for exactly this reason. Right now Cannabis is just simply perceived as a much safer alternative to alcohol/hard drugs, which is precisely how it should be perceived. To have a society in which there is NO psychoactive substance use is an illusion, and it will be good for our government to realize this. So then, it becomes a matter of “safer choices”, just like with the sex education. And Cannabis is, without a shadow of a doubt, a much safer choice than alcohol or hard drugs! Just very recently a research study in addiction medicine has determined that Cannabis may actually serve as an “exit” substance for recovering alcoholics/hard drug addicts! And there is another extremely important property of Cannabis that the prohibitionists would love to keep secret: Cannabis use suppresses violent urges and behaviors and, as one prestigious textbook says, “Only the unsophisticated think otherwise” Then, of course, there is a potential of Cannabis in chronic pain, where other drugs may be ineffective (or physically addictive), with very important potential consequences for our wounded veterans, many of whom have chronic pain. It is also worth noting that Cannabis may have certain preventative value for such devastating conditions as cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. And all this comes with no danger of overdoses or induction of a physical dependence! Let’s be very happy that the cocaine abuse rate is dropping. Let’s not interfere with these dynamics, and then we can possibly achieve what has already been achieved in the Netherlands where the drug overdose rate is 85%(!!) lower than in the US, and that is with much more liberal Cannabis possession laws than in this country! Maybe it is time to give up “dogma” about Cannabis, and to start listening to the experts, if we really want to lower the alcohol/hard drug use in this country, and the accompanying dependencies and overdoses!
Jesus said to treat other people the way we would want to be treated. I know I wouldn’t want my kid to go to jail with the sexual predators, or my aging parents to have their house confiscated and sold by the police, if they grew a little marijuana in their own back yard.
Let’s change the world. Let’s get registered and vote.
Google your state name and the phrase, voter registration. Print off the form and mail it in (or drive it down to City Hall).
And put it on your calendar for Nov 2. to vote! (In some states, you can request an early ballot today and get it out of the way!)
Voter registration for California (deadline: October 18)
w w w . sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_vr.htm .
(just fill out the form and mail it in).
California request a ballot by mail:
w w w . sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_m.htm .
Other states: Google your state name and “voter registration.”
College students: You can usually register as a citizen of either your hometown or your college residence town. Share the voter registration info through your student newspaper, twitter, etc.
Five minutes. Register to vote. Change the world. We can do it right now.
Details as to why Prop 19 is not unconstitutional for conflicting with federal law.
The prop does not make it legal to be high and work my dear. It only makes it legal for you to posses it and smoke it. Employers can still drug test you and fire you for being under the influence.
Can’t wait till its legal. Can’t wait till people see the truth behind marijuana and not just what the media (who always lies) or their parents that were brought up to believe pot is bad, are telling them.