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Voters in California have heard or seen something about Proposition 19 at levels almost unheard of for any other ballot measure anywhere in the country. Among young voters, awareness of Prop 19, which would legalize, tax and regulate marijuana, is at an unprecedented (and almost impossible to believe) 94 percent.
According to a Field Poll (PDF), as of mid-September, a remarkable 84 percent of likely voters in California know that prop 19 is on the ballot. Among that same group, just under 40 percent had heard about Prop 23 and Prop 25, two other important measures to be decided this November. For a historic comparison, look at the numbers for 2008′s Prop 8, California’s hotly contested anti-gay marriage initiative, from around roughly the same time in the election cycle. A Field poll (PDF) from mid-September 2008 found that only 70 percent of likely voters had heard that Proposition 8 was on the ballot.
Even more impressive than the generally high awareness of Prop 19 among voters is how nearly every likely voter under 30 has heard of Prop 19. Looking at the cross tabs (via the Sacramento Bee) from this Field Poll, we see 94.4 percent of likely voters under 30 have heard or read about Prop 19. (To give you an idea of how broad this awareness is, that 5.6 percent who is unaware is probably greater than the poll’s margin of error for that subgroup.) Almost no politician in the country has name recognition among young voters anywhere near 94.4 percent.
While the huge level of media interest in Prop 19 has probably helped drive it to very high levels of awareness in general, the issue clearly resonates with younger voters. Young voters are often disconnected from politics, especially in midterm elections, but on the issue of marijuana legalization in California this year, they are highly tuned in. As the Prop 19 campaign unfolds, there continues to be more and more evidence that having marijuana legalization on the ballot has a unique ability to motivate young people and drive up youth turnout.
25 Comments
If young people turnout for Prop 19 it would send a strong signal that this age demographic is going to stay engaged. Cannabis relegalization becomes an ongoing way of motivating a usually uninterested part of the electorate.
This could be very good for Gary Johnson in 2012.
This also is very good news for the Dems who were smart enough to support 19.
Ironically, it could also help Dems who don’t support it.
As well as Democrats who are less popular than 19 but might get a benefit from young people showing up at the polls who hate the GOP. Boxer, Brown: I’m looking at you two.
Great headline, Jon.
It just goes to show you that when people don’t feel marginalized from political power, they actually start paying attention.
Maybe they should discuss how a 26 year old gets caught with a joint and does real jail time for 6 years. The 19 year old murderer gets 3 years and probation.
Can we just legalize it already?
Jon, what do you think this ‘awareness’ does to current turnout predictions and likely voter models? Does it upend them completely? Are any pollsters accounting for this in their modeling of likely voters in California races?
All the editor Gregg’s doing
Another good question: Has the increased awareness led to a similar increase in registered voters?
Young people are very hard to reach and ever pollster uses differently likely voter models. I know PPP does it based on how many people say they are sure to vote so to a strong degree they are taking it into account.
The tide rolls on. Prop. 19 will pass in California and M74 will pass in Oregon. While we are there voting on the prop., we might as well vote for the candidate that is not so stiff that he cannot look down here where the People live.
This is the only way to get control of “the drug problem,” take out the profit of prohibition.
Can the government prove that drugs are bad for you? No. The proof is in the numbers. Legal drugs kill hundreds of times the rate for “drugs.”
Be afraid, very afraid and attend Colbert’s rally on the 30th of October.
So “Buck Up!” Stop “Sitting on Your Hands and Complaining!” Get out there and legalize marajahuchee, you effing retards!
So “Buck Up!” Stop “Sitting on Your Hands and Complaining!” Get out there and legalize marajahuchee, you
effing retards“Democratic base” voters!So motivating!
Joh Walker thank you.
We are living through the fourth and final act of this American tragedy in which a theocratic, fascist state wages endless agressive war and murder against the world and glorifies it by calling it a holy crusade, and yet demonizes a simple, harmless plant whose potential cornucopia of riches for mankind seems inexhaustible.
Perhaps it is time to start the experiment over again; only this time with a socialistic, democratic model where capitalism is carefully controlled and limited and the fanatically religious are incarcerated in hosptials for the criminally insane.
Yes I can see how nine propositions can be challenging, 23 is clearcut but 25 has me wondering if it’s one of those ones that’s intended to cut them off at the pass. Lakeoff did some work on this minority rule problem but it’s still a work in progress.
Speaking of Measure 74 … It looks like Republican gobernatorial candidate Chris Dudley is anti-medical marijuana and is NOT for ending Prohibition 2.0 of marijuana but just doesn’t want anyone to know about it:
- from “Oregon Governor Candidate Dodges Marijuana Issues,” by Johnny Green, June 27, 2010
That’s pretty amazing as Chris Dudley suffers from diabetes (see “Chris Dudley Accu-Chek Commerical – YouTube.Com” and what it means to have to live with diabetes) and is person who might be helped by the medical benefits of cannabinoids: Diabetic Neuropathies: The Nerve Damage of Diabetes
Meanwhile, “Oregon Senator Ron Wyden Condemns Marijuana Consumers” (by Johnny Green, July 15, 2010).
The already-linked article: “Oregon Governor Candidate Dodges Marijuana Issues,” by Johnny Green, June 27, 2010
Chris Dudley Hall of Shame video: “Reactions to Chris Dudley Video Attacking Oregon’s Minimum Wage,” Sept. 23, 2010
Of note to all politicians: “It’s the Foreclosures, Stupid: Broken Housing Market Really to Blame for Democrats’ Woes,” (Sept. 29 2010)
America’s #1 Request of Obama… Legalize Pot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0SCtUiAIiY&feature=related
President Obama at Virtual Town Hall on Legalizing Marijuana
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuqvcMDqMn8&feature=related
White House Spokesperson Questioned About Obama’s Position on Marijuana After First “Town Hall”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7XweXtz6SY
I think you meant ‘less than’?
Maybe Meg Whitman, repub candidate for California governor, was toking over the last nine years. Poor poor Meg didn’t know that her Mexican maid living in her house for nine years was an illegal immigrant.
Holy smokes.
Once again our repub public figures are tricked by the deceitful and unlawful poor people who deign to take good ‘murican jobs: plenty of locals would have loved to work at eMeg’s for minimum wage washing her clothes, fixing her meals, etc.
Let’s also vote for Prop 25: which replaces the 2/3 supermajority vote to pass a state budget with a simple majority. Then we can end the stranglehold the minority party of repubs has held over the budget process. Yes on 19, 21 (state parks), and 25 (simple majority).
It’s worth voting. Go Dems!
let’s just hope those people turn out and vote, but I’m amazed, its hard to get 94% awareness about anything. Hell theres probably more than 6% of people who think the moon is actually made of cheese.
Just be sure to vote, people!
I can’t wait till we get the same thing on the ballot in CO. I think we can pass it here.
I’m one of those young voters, 26 yrs old. If it was on the ballot in CO I’d definitely show up to vote and I’d mostly vote for Dem’s, but I surely wouldn’t vote for any dem who didn’t support marijuana.
Cannabis is less physically addictive than caffeine, while the so-called “gateway drug” theory is a complete fantasy, and it was just recently called “half-baked” as a result of a scientific study. CNN reported that Cocaine use has dropped sharply, by 30% since 2002, which is really good news. I worked in addiction medicine for years, and this is what I can advice on the matter: Any suppression of Cannabis use will be immediately followed by an increase in alcohol/hard drug/prescription drug abuse! You don’t believe me? Then maybe you will believe the Big Alcohol lobby that is financing the Cannabis Legalization opponents for exactly this reason. Right now Cannabis is just simply perceived as a much safer alternative to alcohol/hard drugs, which is precisely how it should be perceived. To have a society in which there is NO psychoactive substance use is an illusion, and it will be good for our government to realize this. So then, it becomes a matter of “safer choices”, just like with the sex education. And Cannabis is, without a shadow of a doubt, a much safer choice than alcohol or hard drugs! Just very recently a research study in addiction medicine has determined that Cannabis may actually serve as an “exit” substance for recovering alcoholics/hard drug addicts! And there is another extremely important property of Cannabis that the prohibitionists would love to keep secret: Cannabis use suppresses violent urges and behaviors and, as one prestigious textbook says, “Only the unsophisticated think otherwise” Then, of course, there is a potential for Cannabis in chronic pain, where other drugs may be ineffective (or physically addictive), with very important potential implications for our wounded veterans, many of whom have chronic pain. It is also worth noting that Cannabis may have certain preventative value for such devastating conditions as cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. And all this comes with no danger of overdoses or induction of a physical dependence! Let’s be very happy that the cocaine abuse rate is dropping. Let’s not interfere with these dynamics, and then we can possibly achieve what has already been achieved in the Netherlands where the drug overdose rate is 85%(!!) lower than in the US, and that is with much more liberal Cannabis possession laws than in this country! Maybe it is time to give up “dogma” about Cannabis, and to start listening to the experts, if we really want to lower the alcohol/hard drug use in this country, and the accompanying dependencies and overdoses!