Appointed Democratic Senator Kristen Gillibrand has an 11-point lead over Joseph DioGuardi in New York’s Special election for US Senate, according to the latest Marist Poll (PDF) of likely voters:
Marist (PDF) (9/19-22)
Kristen Gillibrand 52
Joseph DioGuardi 41
An 11-point lead and polling over 50 percent is good news for Gillibrand. Despite it being a bad year for Democrats in general, New York is still a very blue state, and Republicans were unable to get a top-tier recruit willing to challenge Gillibrand. To my knowledge, Gillibrand has made no serious gaffes or mistakes that would hurt her.
The poll found partisans pretty much rallied around their candidates, while independents slightly favored Gillibrand. Given the Democratic edge in the New York, if that pattern holds up, Gillibrand should win this November.
Last week, we had two polls showing the race in single digits, a SurveyUSA poll with Gillibrand leading by only one, and a Quinnipiac study with Gillibrand leading by six. I personally suspect this Marist poll is closer to the mark, but it all depends on turnout this November. The almost universal question right now is: will Democratic base turnout be just relatively lower than Republican turnout, or disastrously lower?