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Support for California Proposition 19, which would legalize, regulate and tax marijuana, increased significantly in the latest Field Poll (PDF). Yes on Prop 19 is now winning 49% compared to 42% against.
Field Poll (PDF) (9/14-21)
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 19, a statewide ballot proposition that would legalize marijuana under California law?
(As you know) Proposition 19 legalizes marijuana under California but not federal law and permits local governments to regulate and tax its commercial production, distribution and sale. Allows people 21 years or older to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use. Fiscal impact: Depending on federal, state and local government actions, potential increased tax and fee revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and potential correctional savings of several tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 19?
Yes 49
No 42
Undecided 9
These numbers from Field Research are very much in line with recent polling from PPP (yes 47 – no 38) and SurveyUSA (yes 47- no 42) which both show Prop 19 at just under 50% support by likely voters.
This most recent poll is a significant improvement since July when Field last polled this. In July, Field found Yes with only 44 percent and no with 48 percent.
Generally, a ballot measure polling below 50 percent at this point is considered in the danger zone, but Prop 19 is very different from almost all other ballot measures in history, so I don’t think that rule of thumb applies here. Unlike most ballot measures, Prop 19 has an extremely high profile. The Field poll found that an amazing 84% of likely voters have heard of Prop 19. To provide a comparison, the relatively high profile Proposition 25 (to restore simple majority votes for state budgets) is known by only 39% of voters. Proposition 23 (to suspend the state’s greenhouse gas reduction law) has been heard of by only 37% of voters — and that’s after corporations supporting Prop 23 already spent millions on it.
As expected, the internals show the same basic patterns we have seen elsewhere for support of marijuana legalization. Prop 19 is very popular with voters under 40 (yes 59 – no 33) and unpopular with senior citizens (yes 36 – no 53). Prop 19 also preforms the best with voters in the San Francisco Bay Area.
One small worrying sign is that Prop 19 preforms slightly worse among those who are signed up to vote by mail compared to those who vote in person. In general, those who vote by mail tend to have higher “turnout” during midterm elections.
This is important because Prop 19 is hoovering right around 50% confirmed support. It will likely succeed or fail based on turnout. My analysis shows motivating young people to turnout strongly for Prop 19 could easily provide it that extra few percentage points it needs to put it over the top. The big questions for Prop 19 now are who will show up for this midterm, and will the young voters that strongly support Prop 19 turnout in high enough numbers to put it over the top.
18 Comments
Awesome news Jon!
Very good news if we get young voters we keep power in California imagine a Dem Governor drawing voting districts in California how many GOP districts could we remove?
Book Salon up with China Mielville’s Kraken (novel) hosted by Henry Farrell
Very exciting news.
yeah Field was the only poll to show the no out number the yes which is great to see the number flipped
Obama drug-policy adviser says the administration opposes marijuana legalization and isn’t big on medical marijuana
HELENA — The Obama administration adamantly opposes legalizing marijuana and has a dubious view of medical marijuana, a top White House drug policy adviser said here Thursday night.
Kevin Sabet, special adviser for policy at the White House’s Office of National Drug Control Policy, said marijuana is a dangerous drug that causes documented health and social problems, and should not be subject to voter approval for its use.
“Marijuana cannot be the one exception in history of the world that doesn’t go through a scientific process to be approved as medicine,” he told the Montana Supreme Court Administrator’s annual drug court conference in Helena. “It doesn’t make any sense.
snip
Sabet also said legalization proponents have created a “false dichotomy” by suggesting the only alternatives are legalization or a harsh, punitive approach that emphasizes incarceration.
Those aren’t the only options, and the Obama administration favors an approach that pairs treatment with law enforcement, to reduce illegal drug usage and addiction without sending people to prison, he said
more
I’m signed up to vote by mail. Mostly because I don’t trust the machines on which I vote and at least this way, I can keep a copy. I think you’ll find more of us non-trusting types planning to mail our ballots in and the number is probably slightly higher than the polling suggests.
It’s not about “undoing” GOP districts… It’s about undoing gerrymandered districts no matter the party. In CA’s case, it just happens to be that most of the gerrymandered districts are Repub.
Start with the CA-04. That district needs an enema after 20 years of Doolittle and now McClintock.
No, Mr. Sabet. Drug czars going back to William Bennett have created that dichotomy.
Voting by mail is an excellent idea, I think I should do that too.
Does anyone who’s really familiar with Prop 19 have a comment on the LA Times, I think it is, editorial against? Are any of the points valid objections?
If we vote no on PROP 19 all of the users of Marijuana will obtain medical marijuana recommendation cards and will use the product anyway. If that happens it will continue to support illegal growing and importing of marijuana and there will be no control or taxes generated from its use.
Please understand 1 thing, Pot is sold at every street corner now, if prop 19 is approved Marijuana will be completely controlled and handled in a safer manner including quality control, prices will be more realistic and in turn the illegal importing will cease to exist.
The Dispenseries have spent money to setup the medical marijuana collectives therefore they have everything to lose if Prop 19 is approved, Remove all the scammers and peddlers vote yes and allow the state to protect the minors and keep some cash in this country for our future.
Thanks
working on one now
I am for freedom of choice and You can believe I will be voting YES on Prop 19 on november 2 2010.
I am not a user of marijuana instead I enjoy beer on my weekends but believe me a few to many beers can be a lot worse than smoking an ounce of marijuana, Alcohol intoxication is proportional to the amount consumed I think marijuana will only level out after a couple drags and smoking more will just be a waste.
PROPOSAL
Repeal ALL MEDICAL MARIJUANA LAWS. Medical marijuana is a SHAM. It is LEGALIZED marijuana under the cloak of medical. Everyone qualifies for medical marijuana with a fake illness, some money and unscrupulous doctor.
FDA must approve marijuana smoke as treatment for medical conditions.
Legalization of marijuana MUST START at the FEDERAL LEVEL. Bug your Congress.
PROPOSED LEGAL MARIJUANA BILL AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL.
1. Only 21 and over will have legal access.
2. No cultivation at place of residence at ALL. No cultivation at any place of business unless there is a LICENSE and PERMIT fees are all paid.
3. No cultivation at any public property.
4. Marijuana will only be sold in Legal Marijuana Adult Stores. Do not sell in grocery stores, liquor stores, discount stores, etc. There will be zoning restrictions and the store should only be in a business area about 5000 feet away from residence, religious places and schools. This must be approved by the city.
5. Marijuana-laced food is banned just like trans fat is banned.
6. Marijuana is heavily taxed.
7. Marijuana can only be smoked INSIDE the smoker’s residence with closed windows and air cleaner to remove the smoke.
8. Marijuana cannot be smoked in front of the minors.
9. Smoking marijuana outside of the house is illegal. Smoking marijuana at somebody else’s residence is illegal. In other words, if you want to smoke marijuana, you can do it alone in your own residence!!!
10. Anyone caught violating the marijuana laws will pay heavy fines and will be required to attend education classes in pot dependency and treatment for pot dependency.
11. Police will routinely test for DUI of pot for drivers.
12. Pot will only be LEGALLY cultivated and IMPORTED from Mexico. Mexico will be the LEGAL suppliers of pot to the USA. If cultivated in the USA, it is heavily regulated with very high license fees.
13. Federal laws regarding marijuana will change and new pot laws affecting employment will be instituted. These means employers have the right to test employees who are impaired and have the right terminate employees who test above the pot limit in their system or are impaired. Employers have the right to have a drug-free environment.
14. Medical marijuana should be treated as medicine and prescribed by doctors and dispensed from pharmacies in SHRINKWRAP with tracking numbers.
15. All legal recreational marijuana will have special universal wrapping and tracking numbers.
In other words, marijuana will be treated like selling ADULT (porn) items in ADULT STORES only. It will NOT be treated like alcohol or cigarettes.
Please don’t forget that prop 19 is not the only important vote on MJ. Here in Oregon we have I28 which is now M74. M74 establishes a dispensary and producer system to add to the existing Medical Marijuana law. It’s a good thing.
I don’t think you need to treat the sacrament of my religion like porn. It is a COMPLETELY HARMLESS WEED, get over it.
lower taxes legalize marijuana
Soon after marijuana is legalized, Thousands of dollars will be saved as there will be no need to arrest someone with it, provide that person with a public defender, feed that person sandwiches in jail.
Maybe than we can go one day without hearing about the states budget troubles, and for goodness sake lay off some of these dead weight cops and state workers.
Marijuana will always be treated like alcohol in the work place, some employers will terminate you if your intoxicated and others will smoke with you, it depends on your line of work.
People need to stop thinking that the laws in this country control drugs right now its just not true, Consumers do. Most people in this country are competent and able to decide what is best for themselves and for their lives, look at smoking cigarettes everyone did it in the 1950s it was cool but now that people know its deadly it has a much smaller group of users, and its legal! it just faded away and its not cool anymore.
Pot is for a select group of people and for the most part they seem perfectly normal while intoxicated, its the people that normally dont use it that have adverse affects and than think is bad for everyone, like other legal drugs some work well for some people but not everyone, for instance some people are allergic to penicillin and it could kill them dose that mean it should be made illegal, hell no it helps millions of people.
I am very upset at people that categorize pot with other drugs like Heroin, Meth, etc MARIJUANA WILL GROW AND REQUIRE NO PROCESSING OF ANY KIND JUST PLANT IT WATER IT AND USE IT FOR YOUR NEEDS AND WANTS ITS NATURAL AND ITS ALMOST FREE.