The good news keeps coming for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. The latest Field Poll of likely voters has her leading Carly Fiorina by six points.
Field Poll (PDF) (9/14-21)
Barbara Boxer (D) 47
Carly Fiorina (R) 41
Importantly, the trend has been in Boxer’s direction for the past several months. In March, it was Boxer 45, Fiorina 44, and in July it was Boxer 47, Fiorina 41. We have also seen the trend moving in Boxer’s direction in other polling.
According the Field data, the race seems to be all about Boxer. From Field:
At this point in the campaign majorities of supporters of Boxer and those backing Fiorina appear to concur on one thing about this year’s U.S. Senate contest – the race is primarily about the incumbent.
Two-thirds (65%) of voters who support Fiorina say that their preference is more a vote against Boxer than it is an affirmation of Fiorina’s own candidacy (31%). Among Boxer supporters 67% say their vote is more a vote for Boxer than it is a vote against her opponent (29%).
I suspect we are seeing a similar thing for most Democrats running for re-election. Boxer is just more fortunate, running in a very blue state with a much smaller Democratic enthusiasm gap result. California’s electorate seems less upset with Democrats as a whole right now, compared to most other states.
It looks like the California seat is slowly but steadily moving out of reach for Republicans.