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The good news keeps coming for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. The latest Field Poll of likely voters has her leading Carly Fiorina by six points.
Field Poll (PDF) (9/14-21)
Barbara Boxer (D) 47
Carly Fiorina (R) 41
Undecided/Other 12
Importantly, the trend has been in Boxer’s direction for the past several months. In March, it was Boxer 45, Fiorina 44, and in July it was Boxer 47, Fiorina 41. We have also seen the trend moving in Boxer’s direction in other polling.
We now effectively have all pollsters showing Boxer with a modest lead in the race. SurveyUSA also has Boxer leading by six, and PPP has her up by eight.
According the Field data, the race seems to be all about Boxer. From Field:
At this point in the campaign majorities of supporters of Boxer and those backing Fiorina appear to concur on one thing about this year’s U.S. Senate contest – the race is primarily about the incumbent.
Two-thirds (65%) of voters who support Fiorina say that their preference is more a vote against Boxer than it is an affirmation of Fiorina’s own candidacy (31%). Among Boxer supporters 67% say their vote is more a vote for Boxer than it is a vote against her opponent (29%).
I suspect we are seeing a similar thing for most Democrats running for re-election. Boxer is just more fortunate, running in a very blue state with a much smaller Democratic enthusiasm gap result. California’s electorate seems less upset with Democrats as a whole right now, compared to most other states.
It looks like the California seat is slowly but steadily moving out of reach for Republicans.
27 Comments
True but I also think many CA citizens are “on” to who Fiorina really is. Boxer is lucky in the same way that Reed is lucky to be running against Angle in NV. Fiorina isn’t a nitwitted t-bagger like Angle; she’s just a rip-off billionaire out to buy herself a Senate seat with no real qualifications or credentials to recommend her.
Talk about a choice between the evil of 2 lessers, though. I’ve really gone “off” Boxer, since she decided to tack ever rightward. Also doesn’t support Prop 19, which is dumb since it’s not a fed issue.
Thanks for the update. I suspect Boxer will win mainly bc her opponent is so horrible.
For Fiorina to have any chance of winning, she will have to wear a bag over her head and maintain complete silence.
Unlikely I would say….now if we can get Brown moving as well.
If that pig from New Jersey continues to “help” Meg …
How much has she spent so far?
Will this be the year millionaires can’t buy an election?
Well it’s better than a sharp stick in the eye I suppose.
On the Ed Show, Ed called him a cold hearted fat slob. Or something like that.
The latest Fiorina ad is really just mean and nothing else, I thought. Bye bye Carley.
The new Brown Campaign Ad is here.
Happy Friday Night everyone.
It would be a shame for CA to toss away that much senate seniority.
which pig? cristie? i’m from NJ. left 5 yrs ago. still can’t believe they voted him in.
Don’t see the Brown ad.
Yes, that one.
I’ve never really bought into the seniority argument much, BW. too many jerks able to justify their existence that way. See Al D”Amato; Rick Santorum et als.
fucking whale.
If you haven’t seen it.
Corzine is a putz and I had to hold my nose to vote for him. As bad as Corzine is, it’s not surprising Christie skated past him.
What’s the chance Boxer is benefiting from an unpopular Republican governor? Boy, I remember when Schwarzenegger was all that. How the mighty are fallen. Sic transit gloria mundi, as then named Lew Alcindor once said–coulda knocked me over with the proverbial feather at that one.
Kareem was quite the Latin buff, I’ve heard.
Well that depends, those firmly Dem are going to vote for Boxer. Yes there are some that are not totally happy with some of Boxer’s positions lately but iCarly is not the answer and they realize that.
Prop 19 will also benefit her.
Brown and eMeg are neck and neck and Brown hasn’t really had nearly as much money to bomb the media with ads. There’s a general rejection of eMeg by the political hardcore who are the ones paying attention. The ones they are not really paying attention but do vote will ask their hardcore friends and you know how that works.
I have been saying it on this blog for 6 months.
Brown will win
Boxer will win
Prop 19 will pass
California MIGHT not be quite as liberal as everybody thinks but its not anywhere near Purple.
went to Catholic highg school, right?
Boxer may be moving to the right but over the years she has been willing to take progressive stances when other Democrats including Di-Fi would not. That goes against the grain of most other self-labeled Democrats these days, starting with Obama.
Carly Fiorina?? Ugh,she represents the exact opposite of everything I believe in. At least Boxer gives a dang about the middle class in this country. Go Barbara.
No one should feel safe as long as there is a Dibold voting machine in use anywhere.
Not sure how much Fiorina has spent, although most of her ads are really weird & totally ineffectual. E-Meg Whitman has spent over $112mill so far, which Brown is tryng to use against her (with some success). It’s really overkill and definitely highlights E-Meg’s entitled billioniare persona.
Boxer has a pretty good war chest, though, so she’ll be able to hold her own against incompetent hack Fiorina.
That must be good news of a sort. Fiorina would be a disaster!
I really like to be respectful, and dislike Republicans but will vote all Republicans and will encourage all my friends to do the same. Tell me honestly where are the Change and the Change we can believe in? The two wars still going on and Americans still dying! Goldman Sachs and the Banks make billions while million California homeowners under waters. Talk and talk worst than Dubya!!
Who cares seniority, what had she done for us? According to NPR Cokie Roberts, more than 50% of Americans don’t believe in the “American Dream” and will stayed home this coming November. Please Democrat go out and vote this Nov. Vote Republican, unseat the Democrat and make sure the Teleprompter will be a ONE TERM PRESIDENT!