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The latest from Elway, a Washington State-based polling firm, has Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray with a solid nine-point lead against her Republican challenger Dino Rossi. A lead well outside of the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error.
Elway Poll (9/9-12)
Patty Murray 50
Dino Rossi 41
This is very good news for Murray–and, by extension, for the whole Democratic party. This poll has Murray with her largest lead in months. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Murray trailing by seven and even an internal DSCC poll had Murray leading by only five points. If the Republicans hope to take back the Senate they need an almost clean sweep of all the contested Senate elections, including Washington.
My own analysis of Washington’s “top two” primary system indicated that the race should be close, but that Murray would likely win. I found that if the race follows the pattern observed in 2008, in which two or more Republicans ran against one Democrat, that the likely final vote would be Murray winning by seven points.
2 Comments
I think the good people of Washington state took a nice long look at Dino Rossi and said “OH MY GOD NO!”
I wouldn’t count the Washington State race over yet. If I recall correctly Gregoire had a significant lead in the Polls over Rossi in her govener race and barely one on a recount.
I don’t think the voters are taking a long look at either of these candidates. I think they are largley apathetic. On one hand we have a senator that has never seeen a bank bailout or military bill that she didn’t like and on the other hand we have a republican. I expect a big undervote for state senate, much like we had with Govener.