The latest from Elway, a Washington State-based polling firm, has Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray with a solid nine-point lead against her Republican challenger Dino Rossi. A lead well outside of the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error.
Elway Poll (9/9-12)
Patty Murray 50
Dino Rossi 41
This is very good news for Murray–and, by extension, for the whole Democratic party. This poll has Murray with her largest lead in months. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Murray trailing by seven and even an internal DSCC poll had Murray leading by only five points. If the Republicans hope to take back the Senate they need an almost clean sweep of all the contested Senate elections, including Washington.
My own analysis of Washington’s “top two” primary system indicated that the race should be close, but that Murray would likely win. I found that if the race follows the pattern observed in 2008, in which two or more Republicans ran against one Democrat, that the likely final vote would be Murray winning by seven points.