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Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman has taken a seven point lead over Democrat Jerry Brown, according to the new SurveyUSA poll of the race. The poll also found the Senate race to be extremely close. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer trails Republican Carly Fiorina by just two points, with in the polls 4.2 percent margin of error.
SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1)
Governor
Meg Whitman 47
Jerry Brown 40
Other 9
Undecided 4
Senate
Carly Fiorina 48
Barbara Boxer 46
Other 5
Undecided 1
The governor’s race seems to be moving in Meg Whitman’s favor. Roughly three weeks earlier, when SurveyUSA last polled the race, Whitman had just a one point lead. Looking at the cross tabs, the movement seems to be a result of women growing more supportive of Whitman. While her share of the male vote has remained effectively unchanged since early August, she has gone from trailing among women (38 percent to 51 percent) to effectively tied (45 percent to 44 percent). Due to her vast personal fortune, Whitman has been able to spend an unprecedented amount of money on her campaign, flooding the airwaves. It is possible Brown’s numbers might rebound as the election draws closer and he starts spending his more limited advertising resources.
While the governor’s race seems to be moving in the GOP’s favor, in the Senate race, Boxer has gained slightly against Fiorina. The previous SurveyUSA poll of the race had Fiorina 47 percent to Boxer 42 percent. However, this three point improvement is within the poll’s margin of error and could be just statistical noise.
While I find it hard to believe that a mere one percent of the electorate is actually undecided in the Senate race two months before the election, the undecideds are probably very few. With the race almost tied and so few undecided, at this point the race probably is going to come down to turnout. With the huge national enthusiasm gap and Whitman’s massive political operation, Fiorina should have a lot of help getting Republican voters to the polls.
One possible saving grace for Boxer is that young voters strongly support her over Fiorina, 61 percent to 37 percent. Young voters also overwhelmingly support Prop 19. If having marijuana legalization on the ballot encourages them to turn out in large numbers this November, it could benefit Boxer. Of course, given Boxer’s public opposition to the ballot measure, it may be hard for her to capitalize on the excitement Prop 19 creates for young voters.
57 Comments
They can vote to go back to Bush policies they voted against in the last election and shoot themselves in their foot OR they can vote Boxer or a third party! Just better be sure that they vote for a party with THEIR best interests at heart! Repubs want to gut Social security and make tax breaks for millionaires permanent. Is that what California voters want?
Sure the economy is in a mess, but it was the Repubs who put us here, so to blame Obama is not fair or accurate! And then everything Obama tried to do, they said, “NO,” so to blame him is crazy!
People with deep pockets (Repubs?) are holding back small business loans and not hiring. Could they WANT Obama to look bad? Do they want power again despite their poor performance last time? Of course!!
To quote H.L. Mencken, “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” The majority of the electorate, certainly the much heralded “independents”, know more about reality TV than they do about political realities. To echo a British headline in 2004, “How can 56 million people be so stupid?”
Boxer was dumb to oppose Prop. 19. The conservatives were not going to vote for her anyway. And I feel sure that she doesn’t really oppose it. Idiot.
Maybe now Brown will actually start a campaign considering he’s 7 points down. Or maybe not. Don’t want to upset the Republicans by actually trying to win an election.
I wonder if, in moments of self-reflection at night, Obama ever feels bad about the miserable record he’s saddled decent Democrats with. Probably not…
I don’t think it would take a whole lot to beat old Moon Beam.
Don’t blame Obama alone. Pelosi and Reid each deserve a third share of the blame as well.
Thank you Democrats for shoving Obamacare up our arses.
Retribution is coming.
Where are the jobs Democrats and especially Obama promised for that trillion plus they blew on banks and investment houses.
Where are the jobs?
“They can vote to go back to Bush policies they voted against in the last election and shoot themselves in their foot OR they can vote Boxer or a third party!”
We haven’t left Bush policies to begin with, so the only way to avoid Bush policies is to vote 3rd party.
Brown was likewise foolish to oppose it. The Proposition is polling very well in contrast to the two tone-deaf candidates who had to open their mouths in opposition to it.
I suppose a Flip Flop would hurt them now. Though a clever flip flop could be a good tactic if they didn’t say anything too stupid in their original arguments in oppostion. (Fat Chance.)
The Democrats are the ones who are currently trying to gut social security and there are plenty of Democrats who want to make the tax breaks for millionaires permanent. Why do you blame the Republicans for things that the Democrats are in agreement on? Shouldn’t you be blaming both parties and telling Californians to vote third party if you are truly interested in Californian’s best interests?
Obama needs no help in this area. He is managing to look bad all on his own with his poor choice of advisers. Obama is not a victim here.
At 8pm EDT, Yahoo News had a Headline up:
Future Jobs Are For Those With Specialized Skills
We are frogs in a pot of warm water set to boil. – hackworth1
Sorry, cokids, but the difference between Republicans and Democrats now is marginal, at best. Thanks to our right-leaning White House and Congress, we are about to return to the bad old days of Republican rule full throttle. They won’t even have to pretend anymore.
Maybe this time, with the Democrats’ help, they can finally destroy what’s left of the American Empire. California is just a few short steps from plunging over the cliff and a Republican governor should help speed that up quite a bit. As to the US Senate, well, what difference would it really make? Really?
No kidding. How much of the legislation from the House has the Senate passed or even considered? Turkeys. (my apologies to the bird)
Thanks for the poll updates and analysis. One request for future posts is to mention whether the poll measures likely or registered voters. In case anyone is interested, this poll measures likely voters:
I live in California and the main reason Meg Whitman has taken a seven point lead over Democrat Jerry Brown is Meg Whitman has HUNDREDS OF ATTACK ADS ON TV ATTACKING BROWN. and Jerry Brown has NONE. Zero…
Quite simply really, many people don’t pay much attention to politics and when they hear over and over again (the lies) commercials bashing Brown, it has the designated effect of turning people against him.
I think he was smart to start later rather than trying to respond to Meg’s early and relentless bullshit.
She ran an ad that stated that Jerry has destroyed the school system in Oakland as mayor. Mayors’ in CA have no authority over the schools. geez.
Not that I want to be, but to be fair: Brown challenged Empress E-Meg to debate this summer, and suggested 10 in number, but less, if that’s what the Empress wanted. E-Meg flatly refused. They may have 2 or 3 debates this fall; I guess the number will depend on how badly Brown shreds Whitman. Whitman is not known for her public speaking skills.
Brown has had some ads run by the unions and others. They’re not considered political ads (something about what they say), but there have been some of those. Brown has stated that he plans to campaign in earnest shortly after Labor Day.
That said, both Brown and Boxer were super dumb to oppose Prop 19. It’s like D’s these days just want to lose to R’s. It’s the only thing that I can figure.
Lord help us if we end up with E-Meg in charge. It ain’t gonna be pretty. This is one case where there is some difference bet the D & the R, and the R in question will be bad, very very bad. Same goes with Fiorina. Ugh.
So much for women’s suffrage, huh? But seriously, Whitman will be a first class disaster. Can’t anyone do something? They’ve got that jaundiced Joel Fox group funding “issue ads” that claim Brown is the cause of unemployment…I mean, really, how dumb is the electorate? (Don’t answer that.)
Yup, eMeg would be a nightmare. I’m gonna have to hold my nose and vote for Jerry Brown, which, being a resident of Oakland, I swore I would never do. At a public appearance here recently, Brown was actually touting how he managed to make an end run around the California Environmental Quality Act while he was Mayor- way to be progressive, Jerry!
You may be right but from my perspective, Jerry Brown has failed to tell us what he stands for and what he will do for California. He is relying on name recognition and while he has that in spades, people who have not lived in California since 1970 don’t really know who the guy is, me included.
Meg Whitman is running a brilliant campaign and comes off as a very level-headed Republican. I have not even noticed the attack ads against Brown. They don’t register with me.
The only way Brown can win this thing is to come out strong against Schwarzenegger’s administration and tell us what he will do differently. I have no idea what Jerry plans to do in office or why he even wants the job. Is this just an ego stroking run for governor? Right now, that’s what it looks like to me.
Jerry was the only person the dems could find to run.
Can you back that up with some info? As I recall, Obama was supposed to be the antithesis of McCain. Didn’t turn out that way.
Is it possible that Whitman will be a moderate Republican with some progressive ideas when she gets into office? She supports Barbara Boxer which tells me she is not a right-winger. She has mentioned support for amnesty for illegals and has some other not so scary opinions.
To believe your claim that Brown will be superior to Whitman I need some more evidence.
You trying to blame a state AG for federal failures?
Outside of Los Angeles, that is.
short answer: no.
She hasn’t bothered with politics until this year, and she’s trying to buy her way into the Governor’s office. That’s a sign of someone you really don’t want anywhere near power.
I’ve never understood that. California is a huge fucking state and yet year after year we are given these incredibly weak Democrats for which to vote. Where are all the firebrand environmentalists or social justice candidates?
It must be the weather that makes us all complacent and uninspiring. ;-)
Being offended that she never voted and that she has lots of money to buy the election is completely understandable but is hardly a reason to vote for Jerry Brown. And it really tells me nothing about Whitman’s plans for California.
You are making assumptions that she will use power for her own evil plans solely based on her lack of voting and the fact she’s rich. I don’t see a connection.
Well, no, not really. Gavin ran and couldn’t get any traction at all, so he switched over to the Lite Guv job. Which might do him well after all; if Meg wins and he’s her Lite Guv, he’ll have lots of time to run CA after she gets appointed to President Romney’s cabinet.
Ain’t the weather. The dem party functions the same way that Obama/Rahm did during the election. No real progressives were allowed to run.
That is true. But he didn’t run, right. There was no run off. Or have I lost my mind. Don’t answer that last question.
Pot legalization and gay marriage are very toxic mirages that progressives
are starting to turn away from.It’s ok to get the LGBT vote,but it must be
perceived as support from LGBT and not as support from progressives for the
LGBT and Pot heads.Progressives need to jump on the bandwagon of return to moral values as the current trend clearly shows.
Which is exactly why I think we need to take down the Dem party in this election. If we can weaken them, perhaps we can get some progressives to primary Feinstein in 2012. As it stands now, that is not an option.
I certainly understand all the warnings here about how bad the California Republicans would be, but everybody needs to remember that the Democratic Party of California is the political wing of the prison guards’ union.
Apparently the only thing that is trickeling down in the Obama Administration is his falling poll numbers.
Did I read this right? Are you suggesting that progressive Democrats become the party of family values and that pot smokers and gays are not moral?
Pot legalization is way ahead in the polls as of today.
Sorry . Wrong link. Have to find the more current one.
I *heart* Jerry Brown. How could anyone not vote for that man?
values . . .
Thanks for your concern, but “pot legalization and gay marriage” don’t constitute any abandonment of moral values, so they don’t neccessitate any return to those values.
Or, when you said “moral values”, did you mean right-wing authoritarian values?
File 13 will be the home of prop 19 just as it became for prop. 8.The market is rapidly disappearing for fringe and dischevelled efforts at tearing down long established footings of civilization…especially when
these endeavours try to navigate their stuff under the false pretense of a
strugle for civil rights.True progressives will not fall for such a masquerade.Remember the Spanish proverb :”Ir por lana y volver trasquilado.”
He was also promising to fuck over the unions. He loves bashing the hippies – basically Obama without the charisma. We are desperate for leadership and we get these worthless garbage heaps.
Are you suggesting that progressive Democrats have no appetite for family
values ? I like to think that progressive Democrats are mainstream Americans with more social conscience but quite distinct of faux progressive lunatic fringe sect-like chapels.
Take a walk on the wild side and check intrade prediction….and Mary dont
put any credibility in research 2000 or it’s affiliates.
Why should anyone be surprised by the polls? The repugs and tea party have been engaged in a relentless year long assault on the dems and the dems have done nothing, I mean nothing, at all. When is the last time you saw a democratic rally with some signs and things? We couldn’t even opppose Saint Beck’s rally which would have been a natural.
You are kidding.
Tell us you’re kidding.
Abandon your principles because there’s an election to win.
That’s your idea for Progressives?
What is it that makes you allergic to basic solid traditional values playing their role as moral compass ?
I don’t think we should worry really. Brown will get around to saying something in the next 10 weeks or so and, hell, it doesn’t really matter anyway. He and Boxer are expendable.
You would have Progressives shut down their principled stance on torture, gay marriage, a wrecked economy, and a myriad of issues specifically to gain electoral advantage.
Do you have anything against lying weasels in Congress now? And you would like to see their electorate follow suit?
If, as suggested above, voter turnout even approaches 56%, Brown will coast to victory with Whitman spending nearly $1 million a day in the final two months for that pleasure. Unfortunately, a wide swath of adults are convinced that voting does not matter, and worse, that the act of voting would signify some sort of assent or approval of plutocracy, i.e. “If I don’t vote, I can’t be blamed for what happens.”
Don’t confuse the Republicans with the Tea Party. They are not the same.
It’s not the fault of either that Democrats stupidly and doggedly pursued finance regulation and Obamacare instead of J O B S!
It’s the economy stupid!
Then, Obama gives this really dreary and stupid speech about Iraq to unemployed Americans! He does not mention jobs! JOBS!
That is what people vote on, that is the issue that makes and breaks politicians.
Obama-Pelosi-Reid busted the Democrat party all by themselves, they needed no help from Republicans.
In case you have missed it, the Tea Party is also going after tax and spend Republicans. I am hoping the Tea Party will be able to police the tax and spenders out of office in the next 4 years.
elpasobirdman writes: “Obama-Pelosi-Reid busted the Democrat party all by themselves, they needed no help from Republicans.”
It’s Democratic.
If you’re Freeper troll, we can understand. Otherwise, get it correct!
arrrgh…i know it doesn’t matter (or does it?) but i was prepared to hold my nose, step into the booth and help smite the evil meg. But now, after reading this thread i’m not sure of even that plan. For the recall of grey davis i am proud to report i cast my vote for Gary Coleman RIP, aka Arnold Jackson. Star,adult entertainer, was under consideration but Gary was so frickin cute.Sigh, i thought moonbeam was ok,ignorance was bliss.
Why are so many people freakin nuts? How much Fox/Conservative cool aid are people gong to drink.
The direct cause of our economic and democratic misery is CONSERVATISM!
Conservatism is Fascism, they put corporations before people. Greed is their answer to everything, it is their principle for governing. Democrates at least try to govern with the good of the people in mind.
Voting for a Republican is SUICIDE, TONS OF CURRENT EXAMPLES TO PROVE THIS POINT. STOP BEING DUMB.
[Mod Note: Indoor voice please]
Maybe Jerry will get off his ass and actually start attacking Meg now ?
Leave it to the democrats to snatch defeat from victory.
Voting for a Democrat is SUICIDE, TONS OF CURRENT EXAMPLES TO PROVE THIS POINT. STOP BEING DUMB.
[Mod Note: Time for indoor voice and dial down the rhetoric]
You are a liar and a dumb wingnut troll. Why else would you be on a liberal blog spewing evil Republican/Conservative BS?
Fact, due to Bush’s Conservative deregulation of wall street, our economy collapsed bringing continued destruction and misery to millions of Americans.
[Mod Note: Dial back the rhetoric a bit. Disagree without being insulting]
Living in California I can’t help but notice the $120m Meg Whitman has spent so far and the fact that Jerry Brown has not engaged in any noticeable campaigning at all. Meg’s lead should be at least 30 points not 7.
Barbara Boxer has never been more than a warm body filling one of California’s Senate seats. I cannot point to a single thing she has accomplished for my state. DiFi while doing absolutely nothing for the state either has at least advanced her husbands business interests enormously. Boxer is a real blank slate who is never in the news except at election time, yet she is still neck and neck with Fiorina.
The difference between this blog and, for example, DailyKos, is that the content of the former is oriented toward liberals and progressives generally, while the latter is explicitly pro-Democrat. That the Democrats haven’t done much to fix the mess created by Republicans is not “Republican/Conservative BS”, it’s a sober examination of the facts.
Figaro, re: your remark at #25,
The reason better candidates do not run for office (leaving someone like Brown to ‘campaign’ for the position) is, in my opinion, because electoral politics in the U.S. is such a contemptible practice. Campaigns are almost never about the important, relevant issues as such. It’s nearly impossible to run for, or administer, an office without sacrificing your integrity. Why would a capable person willingly put themselves through that? This is why we get less-than-capable candidates like Whitman instead.