The Republican Party took a big lead in the generic ballot in Gallup’s weekly tracking poll of registered voters. Among registered voters, 51 percent prefer a Republican candidate while only 41 percent prefer a Democratic candidate. This is not only the largest lead this election cycle; it’s the largest lead for Republicans that Gallup has ever seen in their history of tracking the generic ballot for midterm elections. This double-digit deficit in support for Democrats is mirrored in my analysis of the results in the Washington State primary.
Republicans have held the lead in the generic ballot since earlier this month. They not only lead the generic ballot, but their voters are dramatically more enthusiastic about voting this year. A full 50 percent of Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting while only 25 percent of Democrats make that claim. This is also the largest enthusiasm gap this year.
It’s not all bad news for Democrats today, though. A Newsweek poll (PDF) of registered voters also released Monday found Democrats simply tied with the Republicans in the generic ballot at 45 percent each. A tie in the generic ballot would still mean large losses this year for Democrats, just not a total bloodbath anticipated by a ten-point deficit in current polls.
The poll also found Obama had a respectable 47 percent job approval rating with only 45 percent disapproving of the job he is doing as President. Unfortunately for Democrats, Obama’s numbers are very bad on the most important issue this cycle. Only 40 percent approve of the way he is handling the economy while 56 percent disapprove.
While the data from these two polls varies, the results range from things being only bad for Democrats to being truly terrible for Democrats.