Democrat Robin Carnahan is effectively tied with Republican Roy Blunt in the race to become Missouri’s next senator according to the latest poll from Missouri State University:

Missouri State University (Including leaners) (8/7-22)
Robin Carnahan 48.4%
Roy Blunt 48.8%
Other Candidate 2.8%

This poll is in contrast to what little other recent polling we have seen of the race by Rassmussen and PPP which had Blunt with a solid lead. No doubt the Carnahan campaign is very happy to have at least some independent polling data to point to indicating it is still a tight race.

Interestingly the poll has a very low number of undecideds, which I take to mean that they pushed people really hard to choose. It is possible this could explain why Carnahan is doing better. It might be that there is some traditionally Democratic-leaning segment of the electorate that is really unhappy with Obama and the direction of the country, but when push comes to shove, they will hold their noses and cast a very disappointed vote for the Democrat. This could have been what happened in a few of the special elections this year that Democrats won even though most polling had the Republicans leading.

The poll also found that the voters of Missouri really, really hate the individual mandate. During the August 3rd primary, voters passed the anti-mandate Proposition C with 71.1 percent. Supporters of the new health care law tried to point out that it passed only because of the heavy turnout for the Republican primaries, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. The poll asks:

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statement: The State of Missouri should enforce the recently passed Proposition C, which states that Missourians are not required to purchase health insurance, even if enforcing Proposition C could cost the state millions of dollars in court fees.

44.9 percent agreed, 28.7 percent disagreed, and 25.9 percent were not sure. I believe this is about as leading a question you can pose against Prop C, and it still has plurality support. I guess the idea of the government forcing you to buy a product from one of the most disliked industries in American just isn’t popular–who could have possibly guessed?

MSU also polled the MO-04, MO-07 and MO-08 races. Not surprisingly, in the deeply red 7th and 8th districts, which no one thinks will be competitive this year, the Republican candidates have solid leads. In the 4th district’s incumbent Democrat, Ike Skelton, looks to be in decent shape, but give that district’s sub-set sample size of only 187 voters, take it with a big dash of salt.

Missouri State University
(Including leaners) (8/7-22)
Ike Skelton (D) 46.7%
Vicky Hartzler (R ) 34.6%
Other Candidate 2.2%