There is some good news for Democrat Jack Conway. The latest Braun Research/CN2 poll (PDF) of likely voters in Kentucky has him roughly a half-point ahead of his Republican opponent Rand Paul, making the race effectively tied (rounding brings the margin up to a point).
Braun Research (PDF) (8/16-18)
Jack Conway 42
Rand Paul 41
Unsure 16
Refused to answer 1
This is a huge improvement compared to the last Braun Research poll (PDF), which found Paul with a ten-point lead over Conway, 41 – 31.
This is also the first poll in a very long time to show Conway with the advantage. The most recent polls from Rassmussen, Ipsos, and SurveyUSA all found Paul in the lead. We will need to wait for some other polling to determine if there is a real surge in support for Conway or if this is just an outlier.
At the very least, this poll should be helpful to Conway. It makes it easier for him to make the case to voters, and importantly potential donors and volunteers, that the race is a tossup. Being able to point to a poll showing Kentucky might be one of the best Senate pickup opportunities for Democrats in this bad cycle could be quite useful for fundraising and energizing supporters.



52 Comments
Paul has managed to open his mouth quite a bit recently and prove that “he’s not from around here” with some of his proclamations about the state.
Oh goodies, we can haz another
democratDINO in the Senate.It’s not “good” news though is it? I mean a rabid teabagger libertarian is just the same as a democrat.
I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that Ayn Rand Paul is batshit crazy? I wonder if a similar effect can be expected in the Nevada senate race?
Talking with my Rethug boss today about Tuesday’s primary in FL. One thing for sure, he knows his numbers and candidates. Last midterm primary (2006) had a 17.5% Rethug turnout. They’re hoping for 20% Tuesday. 20% of registered Rethugs.
Ya think?
Speaking of batshit crazy, I just got through choking down about 10 minutes of Glenn Beck. (I can only stand his nuttiness in short bursts.) Bottom line:
In my estimation, this guy is truly dangerous, much more so than O’Reilly, Hannity, Limbaugh or fellow travelers. And this thing he’s got planned for next week? Holy Moly.
Ya knoooowwww, all these batshit crazy reichwing nutjobs are the best justification for rebuilding state psychiatric hospitals I can think of.
Actually Conway is a fair reflection of Democrats in Kentucky. Is he a “progressive?” No. But he is a man who is reasonably true to the roots of the Democratic party as it used to be.
He’s not perfect by any stretch but he is a hell of a lot better than some like Bayh, Lieberman, Lincoln and others.
They’d probably change their batshit crazy minds about privatizing everything in sight (including nuthouses) under such circumstances. But either way, whatever it takes.
Beck is a dangerous MF…
Yeah, I know my desires aren’t ever gonna be met in most southern states as far as Democrats go, even here in mine. My Gawd Webb turned out worse than I thought. I knew Warner was a corporate Dem, but Webb didn’t strike me that way when I followed him.
But I swear that if a true progressive ran a true populist campaign in the south, he/she would do better than the “professionals” think.
For example, in a race against a totally batshit crazy opponent, I think a true progressive could win a statewide race in the south, like Kentucky.
But I’ll take your words to heart and give Mr. Conway a fair shake once he gets to DC.
I agree re Beck. He went over the edge quite a while ago.
I guess teh crazy doesn’t play well even in Kentucky.
I got an e-mail asking for money for him when I’ve never signed up for anything related to him. I don’t live in Kentucky and I hadn’t even heard of the guy until that e-mail. One of the big groups sold my e-mail address and I am pissed about it. I wish I knew who it was. I’d like to let them know what I think of that.
I think he’s/she’s (ShotoJamf) right about the guy potentially being very dangerous too, in addition to going over the edge.
He could incite some bad shit if he chooses.
Looks like this might be a good read…
Might be nice to get him on FDL soon, maybe even concurrent with the idiot event in DC on the 28th.
Tip always said “all races are local” – that may be what saves the Dems this go round.
I read somewhere that the gold company Beck shills for is in a bit of legal trouble. Folks find out they’ve lost money buying gold they ain’t gonna be happy. Most of ‘em prolly get “certificates” for the amount of gold they’ve bought and those “certificates” ain’t gold. If ya don’t have it in yer hand you ain’t got shit.
Great title.
Here’s a Seminal Diary I did a few months ago that touched on Conway. At the time he was in a primary race with the decidedly homophobic Lt Gov. Conway is the current AG for the state.
With 2 populist state constitutional amendments on the ballot in FL the left should have a good turnout. Crist is prolly a shoo-in for the Senate and if Alex Sink keeps stepping to the right and folks begin to find out about how she screwed consumers while at BoA Bud Chiles just might have a chance at governor.
Even if the gold is in one’s possession, if the whole enchilada goes to shit, it ain’t gonna be worth much. You can’t eat it, you can’t drink it, and you can’t use it as fuel. About the only thing you can do with it is drop about 100 coins into a sock and bonk someone over the head if it comes to that. I’d much rather have a 1,000 gallon tank full of petrol…but that’s just me.
Plus it’s really hard to get what you paid for it. Gold dealers are not gonna give you the spot price, they’d never make a profit, and you can’t buy anything with it.
Man, gettin’ walloped with a hundred ounces of anything sure would give ya a hell of a headache.
I’d want a huge stash of flour, rice and beans.
That works.
They are scamming the buyers by selling them gold coins at inflated prices. Beck continues to push the company to this day (or yesterday, as has been documented.)
What check the poll again the Anointed One the Son of Ron cannot be loosing!!! I mean have you seen those big diverse Tea Bagger crowds?/s
If Rand can’t win then the GOP’s plan to energize their base is a failure.
There is nobody who has better Tea Bagger Cred than Rand.
Very good question if this trend goes National then everyone’s polling on this race is skunked. I can’t even begin to guess what the election would really look like then.
Not going to happen if the Tea Bagger trend goes national if the Baggers can’t keep a 10 point lead for Rand then who can they help?
That would be a good campaign issue if some company sells your information you should be informed and get a piece of the action.
Also if they give away your information or its stolen you should get cash. I think the Left and Righty blogs could agree on that one.
Tea Party here has pretty much been a flop. More counter protesters than Tea Partiers. Very vocal but not many are listening. Rubio is the only one actually affiliating himself with their ideas, and the TP candidates for Congress like Marg Baker. Man, talk about a nut case.
That’s stupid. Fer cryin’ out loud, I can walk into Regions Bank and buy Krugerrands at the spot price.
I think it’s an issue when it was probably BoldProgressives or Healthcare NOW or the like. Since the health insurance “reform” I removed my name from most lists, but I still get e-mail from those two.
I surely am not the only person getting unsolicited e-mail like this. You are right that this isn’t a left or right issue: it doesn’t help the cause of any group or candidate who participates in this. It merely makes me even more disgusted by them and more determined to vote 3rd party or write in names– anything except support those who currently call themselves Democrats.
You should go to one of these meets and get us a report from the ground hopefully with pictures or video. If the Baggers can’t carry Florida then Jeb is going to have a harder sell running for President.
Of course I think he will claim he can win Florida but without Kathleen Harris counting the votes?….I think not.
No tv here has the media been covering the fact that more anti baggers than baggers show up for bagger rallies in a red state like Florida?
I think this issue is a winner for any candidate who wants crossover votes. Net users are sick of Spam! That and identity theft!
I used the contact form to send a email to Alex Sink, blasting her for siding with the right on the community center non-issue. I didn’t even get the usual boilerplate response but 2 days later got an email looking for money. That one email from me was enough to put me on their list. I unsubscribed and haven’t heard from them since.
I think the Astro Turf is melting in the summer heat.
I don’t have a teebee either so can’t follow the news other than the online papers and my local community radio station. FAIK the rallies have been small, few and far between. Jeb doesn’t stand a chance in FL and I think he knows it.
I think politicians are getting scamed by their internet help. I think they are paying by the signature and the companies are using even complaint emails like yours to bill the politicians.
Poor Texas I bet Jeb starts his campaign there then. Unless Texas is going our way?
Does it get more aggravating than that? You contact her to tell her off, and then you get a request for money? Good grief!
During the health insurance “reform” I was in touch with my representative, Cleaver, by both snail mail and e-mail. I sent the same letter twice, but in 2 different media hoping he’d get it that way. I noted on them that I’d contacted him both ways. Subsequent to that, I received a canned “we’re sorry you didn’t support this but here’s why it’s so wonderful” letter AND a “we’re happy you supported our legislation” letter. I couldn’t have been clearer that I was against it and that I would not be voting for him again. His responses didn’t improve matters at all.
I think Jeb is more interested in being a “consultant” than actually running for office. He’s making very good money with his venture capital gig. Definitely puttin’ in some overtime with the knife and fork.
A Bush in a venture capital gig cripes anytime a Bush invests without the inside scoop from another Ivy leager its a disaster. The Carlyle Group had a fund close in the Netherlands right before Lehman and the Banks collapsed.
Since I don’t know when a Bush has the inside scoop I figure avoid investing in anything they touch.
Newsworthy but early days yet. It will be interesting to see how this crop of ‘Baggers turn out. I could be wrong, but it seems like Scott Brown in MA was more “sane” than folks like AynRand Paul & this Angle person in NV. But then again, there are the Virginia Foxx’s and Michelle Bachmann’s bringing on teh crazzeeee, and they keep getting voted back in. So go figure.
Also of note is that in the CA Governor’s race, both Jerry Brown and E-Meg Meanie have been pretty elusive in terms of public events.
Brown asked E-Meg to debate him between 1 – 10 times this summer, but she refused (scaredy cat), but they’re alleged to debate 2 or 3 times this fall.
In the meantime, E-Meg continues her spending spree and is up $104 million of her own money. Not sure what Brown’s spent, but hardly anything. Yet the 2 are pretty much neck and neck at this time. Brown has indicated that he’ll come on the public stage after Labor Day. I have a gut feeling that Brown’s gonna pull it off, but don’t quote me. If for no other reason, I hope Brown wins bc it would make me smile to watch E-Meg waste her millions uselessly. Of course, there’s plenty more where her millions came from (all that Goldman Sachs insider trading pays handsomely).
My hat’s off to you (I think) bc I don’t believe I could tolerate even 10 min of Feckless Glenn. Beck takes the weirdly nuts to a new level, and it’s not even interesting.
In my occupation, I interact with mentally ill people from time to time. Some have very strange symptoms. Beck definitely reminds me (not in a good way) of some mentally ill folks I’ve dealt with (no offense to the mentally ill intended; just stating facts).
As much as I despise Limbaugh, O’Reilly & Hannity, I have to agree that Beck is a world of his own, and I simply cannot understand how *anyone* can bear to watch this clown, much less buy into his weird, twisted, sick, perverted, toxic, ugly, facist, racist kant. Unreal. My family LOVES this guy and watch & listen to him all the time. It is unhealthy.
People are going to really take a HUGE fall over the gold that Beck has shilled them into buying. My family is (seriously) burying gold coins in their yards. I’m telling you: weird and insane.
There’s no way they’ll ever get their money back on this extremely dubious “investment.” But Beck will find some twisted way to blame it on the liberals, and his brainwashed masses will go along with it (wait and see).
Nice to see that Rand Paul’s numbers are sitting in place like a turd in a broken port-a-potty. 41% and not going anywhere. Meanwhile every one of the 11% rise that went to Conway came from the former “Undecideds”.
Seems Rand has been about as attractive as Kryptonite to those that didn’t know much about him.
So what you want to bet that the undecideds suddenly will find him the “more attractive” candidate?
Another Bluedog Senator. How thrilling. A wacko like Ron Paul would have been much more entertaining and far less damaging.
Beck’s company is pushing collector’s gold coins, the value of which is determined by rarity, condition, etc. They are making a mint (so to speak) off selling the rubes those coins rather than bullion coins like Kruggerands, Canadian Maple Leafs (Leaves?), and U.S. Gold Eagle — which are valued for their melt value (the value of the gold in the coin).
KO has repeatedly implored him to seek help.
I can’t stand Rush, Hannity, or O’Reilly, but I don’t believe any of them are insane.
Beck, however, is crazy.
If you go to the cover page of this most recent poll, and compare it with the poll the same company took 10 days-ish before, the one that found Rand Paul to have a 9.3% lead over his opponent, you will see the pollster changed methodology. Previously they picked voters by voter registration rolls, this last time they just dialed randomly and ASKED people if they were registered, for which party, and if they were likely to vote.
This method is established to overrepresent those who aren’t registered to begin with. Only THEN did Rand’s opponent tie with Rand in a poll.
This doesn’t bother you?