The latest SurveyUSA poll of California found Republican Meg Whitman with a single-point lead over Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor, and incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer trailing Carly Fiorina in her re-election bid.
SurveyUSA (8/9-11)
Governor
Meg Whitman 44
Jerry Brown 43
Others 6
Undecided 6
Senate
Carly Fiorina 47
Barbara Boxer 42
Other 5
Undecided 5
This is a noticeable improvement for Jerry Brown since last month, the last time SurveyUSA polled the race. Back in July, Brown was losing to Whitman by seven points (Whitman 46% – Brown 39%). I suspect Brown’s improvement in the polls comes from simply starting to run ads and campaign more actively. Up until recently, because Whitman had a contested primary, she had been dominating the news and airwaves. On the other hand, Boxer has slipped slightly from last month when it was Fiorina 47 – Boxer 45.
SurveyUSA has been more pessimistic about Democrats’ chances in California than several other pollsters. The latest polls by Rasmussen, PPIC (PDF), and PPP all had Boxer with a lead over Fiorina. I suspect at least some of the difference comes from the different projections about turnout demographics this year. I suspect this year’s turnout is going to be very difficult to predict. You have fired-up conservatives, unenthusiastic Democrats, turned-off undecideds, and there is a big question of how many Obama surge voters come back to the polls in a midterm election.
This is the same poll that found Proposition 19 winning with 50 percent certain to vote yes and 40 percent certain to vote no. I feel like pointing out again that more voters have decided they are certain to vote for Prop 19 to legalize marijuana than say they are certain to vote for any of the candidates running for governor or US Senate.



43 Comments
I sure hope this tide turns
I might just have to go volunteer for Jerry. Must. Not. Let. Whitman. Win.
Critical.
Aren’t these the same pollsters that Kos fired?
SurveyUSA is a terrible poll for statewide California. Wait for the Field Poll before drawing any conclusions.
Hey Babs, remember when you threw Ned Lamont under the bus and supported Joe Lieberman?
So do we.
Don’t blame the messengers. I’m not fired up. I didn’t know I was part of the professional left until Robert Gibbs told me. Who is our leader?
Great news! I hope the polls stay this way for awhile because our Dem leaders need the shit scared out of them.
If Meg Whitman wins the election she is going to cut more money from the poor and give it to the corporations according to her website. That might be just what we need to get the apathetic public to start protesting in the streets. That might be just what we need to finally put a nail in the coffin of the California Republicans. That might be just what we need to get a cohesive progressive party who stands up to the corporate Dems and demands action instead of platitudes.
Same for Fiorina. She will be a disaster in the Senate and I hope she wins. Boxer is useless anymore and I would love the opportunity to vote for a true progressive after Fiorina screws things up.
We need to bring this to a head. We need to get the rot out of the Democratic party so we can all start to heal. I’m not voting in this election–I cancelled my voter registration after Boxer voted to let Joe Lieberman keep his chairmanships in the senate. She’s not on my side. But if I were voting, I would be voting for Fiorina.
Jerry Brown is too old for the job. We need someone who understands that the world has changed since 1970. Regardless of who wins this November, California is screwed. The Dem candidates are spineless and out of touch and the Repub candidates are corporate hacks who don’t know the meaning of “the common good”.
And to those of you who think I’m nuts and cruel for not caring about all the people Meg and Carly will hurt if they win, I’m disabled with AIDS, lost my dental care earlier this year thanks to Schwarzenegger, and will very likely lose more of my healthcare if either Repub wins. I have skin in the game and I’m willing to risk it because I want a better tomorrow. If I end up being tossed in the dumpster by Meg and Carly through cuts to medicare and social security, and end up dying because of it, it will be well worth it. Give me liberty or give me death!
We can no longer afford to vote for spineless Dems. The stakes are too high. I say bring the Dem party to its knees so that we can rebuild it with people who have the courage to fight for Democratic ideals. If we don’t act now, I doubt we will have the opportunity to act in the future. We may already be too late.
I just don’t understand why people would vote for Fiorina. Doesn’t anyone remember her illegal activities in spying on reporters when she was the head of HP? Doesn’t anyone remember this?
Jerry Brown is too old for the job.
I think that is a silly statement. Obviously, I disagree.
You’d really rather have Meg and Carly in there and be dead? We have different takes on life, I think.
she spied on her own board members!
Great news for a Saturday morning. And I’m not even a Republican.
I just don’t understand why anyone would vote for Boxer. Remember her campaigning against Ned Lamont and FOR Joe Lieberman in Ct? Remember her NOT standing up and demanding a public option when she had the chance to prevent cloture and pull a Joe Lieberman to make her demands met? Remember how she threw women under the bus during the health care debate by supporting the rabid anti-abortion amendments so that Obama could get the “win?”
Remember how Barbara Boxer has voted with a majority of her Democratic colleagues 96.3% of the time during the current Congress, supporting the corporate agenda instead of working for her constituents?
Remember how forcefully she stood up to the president on DADT … me either. Remember how hard she has worked as the Chair of the U.S. Senate’s Committee on Environment and Public Works to get clean energy to California, to make corporations responsible for their pollution … me either. Remember how Boxer has a progressive score of only 77% according to http://www.thatsmycongress.com. Remember how forcefully Boxer came out in support of net neutrality after the announcement by Google/Verizon … me either.
She’s way too comfortable in her position and doesn’t feel the need to fight for us anymore. She supports Joe Lieberman who totally screwed any chance we had to take full advantage of the historical margins we have in the senate and house. She votes party line instead of acting in her constituents best interest. She will keep putting party before country and she won’t lift a finger to fight for us but she will sign her name to all the important progressive legislation so she can fake a progressive record. Get rid of the dead wood.
We can do so much better than Boxer but we won’t have the chance if people keep voting her back into office. California is one of the most progressive states in the union and we deserve a better senator than Barbara Boxer. A vote for Fiorina is a vote for progressive change in the long term.
We have to stop being afraid of what will happen short-term if we really want change. This is going to be a long process and we should be thinking about 10 to 20 years down the road. Get rid of the need for immediate gratification and start thinking about the future generations and the future of our country.
My parents are Jerry’s age. They tell me they are too old for that sort of thing. They tell me people their age don’t have any fight left, they are just trying to enjoy the golden years. I don’t think that statement is silly at all if one of your qualifications for a candidate is someone who will fight for your ideals.
There are exceptions to every rule but I have not seen anything in Jerry Brown that would lead me to believe that he is anything other than what my parents say. He’s against legalizing marijuana but offers no rational reason or methods of improving the drug war situation. That alone tells me he is from a generation that view the world differently than the up and coming generations. I believe we need someone with vision and hope for the future, not someone who is just trying to bolster his legacy. Jerry Brown had his chance. It is time for the next generation to take the helm.
A loss by Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer in one of the most progressive states in the union will be an undeniable message to the Democratic establishment that they are no longer welcomed in the Democratic party. That message needs to be sent.
Exactly. Progressives keep griping about the status quo, but when there’s a chance to do something about, they go fetal and cry about how horrible the Republican alternative is.
Of course the Republican is horrible. And they will always be horrible…well for as long as their party holds together. But sometimes you need a term of horrible to get something better into office afterwards. The same principle applies to the Obama admin. We can do better, but we have to get him out of the way first to make room for the better.
If Obama is any example it must set in at about 47
Six years is a long time, and Senator Sneed could do LOTS of damage, because she’ll likely take the GOP into the majority. Alongside Coburn, Sessions, Graham, McCain, Inofe, Angle, Paul, and Rubio, it could lead to the most damaging Senate of the modern era.
Anyone wishing to see California burned to the ground, with the earth salted by Whitman, is condemning millions of children to a subpar education, hundreds of thousands of disabled and millions of poor to a life even more on the edge, and the entire state to a future based on eating rubble and farming rocks and dust.
I can’t imagine how a vote for Sneed and eMeg is a vote for progressivism. It makes absolutely no sense. Boxer and Brown may be imperfect vessels — who among us is not? — but they are so vastly superior to their opponents in every way that it’s simply not a close call.
Go Barbara!
Go Jerry!
I was thinking the same thing as I was typing. ;-)
Ha! Nearly identical thought, here. Must. Stop. Meg. Whitman.
Yet you manage to buy into so many of the Republican themes it’s hard to tell the difference between you and a Republican.
Six years is a very short time when considering the history of the country. If the Repubs get the majority in the Senate then the president has a veto pen and the minority Dems will have the filibuster. They will be able to block the Repub majority … if they want to.
If eMeg tries to take down California, the California legislature has HUGE Democratic majorities that can thwart her agenda just like they thwarted Schwarzeneggers worst ideas. Nobody is advocating for California be burned to the ground and the earth salted.
I think the idea that if Republicans get in charge they will be able to do whatever they want is the common rational for voting Democratic and it is a false equivalency. A Republican governor and senator in California will not be able to enact their anti-progressive agenda as easily as you seem to think. The California Democrats will be forced to stand up to them or risk losing their own seats. I see it as a very healthy dynamic for the California legislature to get the Democrats to start acting like Democrats.
Think long-term Teddy. I know my ideas are very confrontational and quite possibly alarming to most but I hope my explanations take some of the fear factor out of them. I want what you want and what all progressives want … a more progressive future. I think my ideas have the best chance of accomplishing what we all want to accomplish.
I don’t think voting for Boxer or Brown will have any long-term impact on our shared goals and will only be a band-aid to prevent things from getting worse in the short term.
Why haven’t I send any Jerry Brown ads? WTF? Why couldn’t the dems field a viable candidate? WTF?
Maybe I will move to Oregon after all.
I was really hoping Antonio Villaraigosa, the mayor of LA, would run. I have heard him speak several times and he is a very thoughtful, rational guy who is willing to take responsibility for his political stands despite push-back from the Republicans and the media. He is a very confident, intelligent guy and is exactly what we needed at this juncture. But he knew that LA really needed him where he was so he turned down the opportunity to run for governor. That says something right there.
California’s Democratic party establishment is part of the reason we never seem to have good candidates to vote for in our elections. They see Dianne Feinstein as an “institution” and would never let anyone progressive come close to challenging her. Same with Boxer. They would fight against any progressive challenger to Boxer so our only option is to wait for Feinstein and Boxer to retire. I’m not willing to wait that long for progressive change.
Correct me if I’m wrong (and I may be, not being a resident of California but merely someone who reads the newspapers), but what does Boxer have to do with the education of children in California, other than 1.) funneling money into the state, and 2.) voting on education legislation at the federal level? And correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Boxer the incumbent? So then to the extent she has any influence whatsoever on that issue, isn’t she responsible for the millions of children in California who are currently condemned to a sub-par education?
I’m with figaro. Like a person suffering from alcoholism, the Democratic Party (and the country) needs to hit rock bottom before it fully understands the problem.
Yeah, Scott Brown really taught Dems a lesson. I cant believe we are having he same discussion. It will be painted as a backlash against liberalism making it easier for Obama to negotiate with Rethugs like he always wanted. It won’t help us. At All.
What dreadful candidates. Crazy Republicans and pathetic Democrats.
Cali sure looks like a bunch of stupid people from here.
Sorry!
Hasn’t Obama capitulated to Republican demands (and, more importantly, those of corporate interests) under current conditions, with Boxer as an incumbent Senator? Didn’t Obama capitulate to these demands even before Brown became a Senator? Boxer’s loss alone will not change things; I don’t think figaro or anyone else here has made that argument. Boxer is merely one of many Democratic officials who stymie actual progress in the U.S. She does more harm in the long term than good precisely because she embodies a status quo in the Democratic Party that is content with negotiation with Republican and corporate representatives. That is why, for the long term good, we would be better off with her gone.
Scott Brown was the shot across the bow. If you remember, the pundits had a really hard time analyzing the outcome of that race. Nobody ever thought the Dem would lose to a Republican, especially one who was against the health care reform bill. It was definitely a shock to the Democratic establishment. They tried to blame it on the Democratic candidate but that never found any resonance. You can bet that it was a wake up call of sorts.
This November will be the real message. If they lose again like they did in Massachusetts they will have a really hard time blaming it on all of the candidates. This will be there wake up call. Big losses in November will force them to confront a reality they have been trying their best to ignore. One thing is for sure, if the Dems lose big in November we won’t have to hear any more liberal bashing from the White House. They will know who their master is and it ain’t gonna be Rahm Emmanual.
The Democrats have been pathetic since they took large majorities in both Houses, and the presidency with a progressive mandate.
It’s becoming a cliche, but it seems accurate: we’re like battered wives who won’t leaves their abusive husbands.
“We have to stop being afraid of what will happen short-term if we really want change.”
Exactly. The current crop of republicans are like death by firing squad while the dems are like slow poisen. Poisen may take a little longer but in the end you are just as dead.
I don’t understand why anyone would want her to lose, which is what you seem to want. She’s way the hell better than DiFi, and is usually reliably D.
Exactly.
I may vote for Brown, but I can’t wait to vote for Fiorina just to rat-fuck Babs. Boxer losing in CA — to a shitbox candidate like Carly — would be just the thing to show Rahm and the rest of the Dem apparatus how pissed we are and how fucked they are.
My new rallying cry: Beat Babs!
Six years may be short in the lifetime of the country, but it’s long in the lifetime of any one of us.
NOW is all the time we’ll ever have: there’s no way to buy more or re-do the past.
Go to Arizona, then. They’re more your style.
That’s your standard, she’s better than DiFi? So is food poisoning but I wouldn’t ever eat bad food on purpose.
The only thing that could be better than blowing Babs out of the water would be the opportunity to send both of them backing. (How much do I hate DiFi? I maxed out my legal contribution limit to her first campaign for the Senate. Now I wouldn’t piss on her if she was on fire.)
But if (D) is part of the problem, then the fact that she is reliably (D) is cause for concern. Further, many of the problems we now face come as a result of the belief that “NOW is all the time we’ll ever have” — we need to correct that view in light of the data before us.
Here’s why I want Barbara Boxer to lose;
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/65116
And saying Boxer is way better than DiFi really doesn’t say anything at all.
Yes, but the common good trumps all that … at least for me. I believe we have a duty to each other and that includes the future generations. While my life might suck for 6 years, my niece’s life will be much better for the sacrifices I make for her now.
It’s way too early to get excited and the Field Poll will be far more accurate.
As Governor in the 70s, Jerry Brown was not a progressive’s dream and support from teachers and nurses will be tepid.
I’m new to firedoglake; while I admit I am not as informed as most of you, I believe there is a “malaise” in the Democratic Party. It is Nationwide and will affect everyone. Firedoglake and Dennis Kucinich could be the cure. Our President has been listening to the “Right” as evidenced by Shirley Sherrod, when he should be listening to us. We must get his attention.
Welcome to the club! I’m fairly new myself but I’ve been lurking since around 2006. A challenging group of folks here … and some great laughs. I look forward to reading your take on things.
I have already called Boxer’s Washington DC and San Francisco offices to tell her flack catchers that I, a 4th generation Democrat, was voting for
(ugh) Carly Fiorina. Why? Figaro, what he said.
As for Whitman, I won’t bother to tell her she’s got my vote. I just remember a long ago Firing Line show debate where William F. Buckley, Jerry Brown, and I believe Steve Forbes were lined up on the same side in favor of a flat tax. George McGovern stood tall for us all on the other side. Jerry Brown had better lower his expectations of getting my vote.
Boxer out, Jerry Brown doesn’t have a clue. California has been screwed by the Dems for so long, the poor will always be poor and I am sick of paying for lazy people. The state is broke, always spending more than the state takes in. I am pro business, how else will jobs come back to this once great state. Socialist, left wing idiots have been running this state for 30 to 40 years and it keeps getting worse. I just love BO, let’s spend our way out….that’s like my wife reducing her credit card by shopping more…brillant!!!!