pIt appears that “undecided” voters this year are primarily a group of people who really dislike both parties and the candidates put forth this election. Tom Jensen at PPP describes the undecideds in the Colorado Senate race:
-They pretty universally dislike both [Michael] Bennet and Ken Buck. 9% like the job the incumbent’s doing while 47% disapprove. 3% have a favorable opinion of the challenger while 39% see him unfavorably.
-They have little regard for the President, giving him a 31% approval rating while 55% disapprove. But they express even less faith in the future of the Republican Party with 12% saying it’s headed in the right direction and 54% saying it’s going the wrong way.
It seems this is a national pattern. The recent NBC/WSJ poll found Americans have extremely low opinions of both major parties right now. A Gallup poll from earlier this year found a similar result. It appears that the Republican Party’s brand remains damaged from the Bush administration, while voters’ opinions about the Democratic Party have dropped sharply. This is probably due, in no small part, to Democrats’ failure to improve the incredibly bad employment situation and how they have squandered a large majority in a totally broken Congress.
If the “undecideds” in most polls are people who seem to strongly disapprove of both major parties, I think it is legitimate to speculate whether they will even bother to vote this November. Democrats are trying to make this election a “choice” between them and Republicans, but voters always have a third option of just staying home. Given how poorly people view the two major parties, staying home might become a more and more appealing choice for some.
As a result, this midterm could be a very low turnout election. If so, it becomes even more important for both parties to focus on getting out their base. This is probably why three months out from the election, OFA is sending emails asking supporters to “commit to vote in the 2010 elections.” Given the level of enthusiasm within the conservative base, the Republican party is probably not going to need to work as hard to get their core voters to the polls.
Update – Tom Jensen at PPP has found basically the same pattern of “undecideds” hating both parties in their national poll as they did in their poll of Colorado.
The undecided voters on the generic ballot tell an interesting story. They voted for Barack Obama by a 46/32 margin. But they now disapprove of him 38/48. And they disapprove of Congressional Republicans even more, 9/65. They dislike Congressional Republicans more than Obama- but will that be as important a factor in how they vote this fall? Hard to say at this point.



43 Comments
Gee, decisions decisions, cat-vomit or dog-vomit, I can’t make up my mind.
I’ll take neither for 100 Alex.
does remind you of that South Park episode some times.
All going to the eleventy-seven dimensional chess plan.
Here.
I’ve heard of that plan. That’s where you promise to fix the country if elected, and then don’t, and in fact, diss the people that put you there, while continuing the rape of the middle and lower classes. That plan.
Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon
Going to the candidates debate
Laugh about it, shout about it
When you’ve got to choose
Every way you look at it, you lose.
–Paul Simon
Gee, if only we had a legitimate third party to absorb all that disaffection. Or even a reform candidate to rally behind. Oh well, I guess I’ll put my head back under the covers.
does happen with first past the post single member districts.
The lesser of two evils is still evil!
OT– but it will make you laugh now that corporate candidate Ben Quayle has decided to run for Congress in … wait for it … ARIZONA!
Lloyd Bentsen responds to Dan Quayle (1988, Vice Presidential Debate, Dan Quayle and Lloyd Bentsen)
I’d settle for a legitimate second party.
The general dislike for both parties should be a golden opportunity for progressives to organize populist anger into a credible political force, but we are letting it pass us by.
Sorta o/t, but here ya go…
I believe Canada has a single-member simple plurality system, as do we, and they also have a strong third party, the NDP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Canada. The key is that the NDP concentrates on the progressive areas of Canada (BC, Alberta Saskatchewan, Manitoba) and don’t bother with the conservative areas. It would be the same as if we ran a progressive party in the west coast, the northeast, Denver/ Boulder, etc., and ignored the deep south and the plains states. So, hint-dit-d-hint-hint. (Edit: sorry, screwed up embed but that is the link).
I’m as motivated as any Republican, because I have Republicans to motivate me. Sleaze-bag Dino Rossi will motivate me to vote for Senator what’s-her-name, and the clueless halfwit Dave Reichert will motivate me to vote for his opponent.
I’m as pissed off at this sold-out and caved-in administration as anybody else around here, but I’d never dream of not voting against my local Republican jerkweeds.
“You’re on drugs, you fucking retards, plus you’re whiny, ungrateful and are never satisfied after ALL THAT’S BEEN DONE FOR YOU! You are going to shut up and put out, you hear?!”
Well Democrats, since you asked so nicely, I guess I could show up in November, just to shoot you the finger of course, but I’ll definitely be there.
Jon-
Any opinion with regard to the differences between the turn-out numbers for Democrats and Republicans through the primary election season thus far?
Anything in particular strike you as noteworthy, in terms of who’s voting (or not)…and why?
The conclusions of this paper Winner-Take-All Politics sum up why voters mistrust both parties.
Or as they say in Japan, “What if they had an erection and nobody came?”
That would be soooooo “lock and loll”.
Dredd
Hell, I’m not voting (except for local candidates). I’m a liberal. There isn’t anyone to vote for.
I am with the group that dislikes both parties.
They both have played significant parts in putting the country in the pile of shit it’s now in:the GOP may have played a major role in the degradation but let’s not kid ourselves,the Democrats have been right there with ‘em at every f..king turn helping.
This is a feature, not a bug. The criminals that make up TPTB LIKE this situation. If you go to the polls, you have a choice of shit or crap. Either way they win. If you DON’T go to the polls, shit and crap wins too. They win.
Revolution is the only answer. Flush the toilet, it’s full, and start with a clean bowl.
Undecideds generally are no-shows in mid-term elections.
It is the ground game – organizing and getting out the vote – that is going to make the difference in the results. And that depends on getting folks who have already decided to get out and vote their decision. How Democrats do varies from district to district and state to state. The key question is not how many folks have a good or bad opinion of Obama or the Democrats, or of the Republicans. It is whether OFA can turn out more people to vote for Democrats than megachurches can turn out to vote for Republicans. And that depends on the thoroughness with which they canvass to find voters who have made up their minds and do all the things, including transportation, to get them to the polls.
And how many districts and states OFA can deliver to the win column. Guess what, the folks who think that Obama has not done enough are geographically concentrated and won’t make much of a difference.
And the opinion polls of “likely voters” push undecided to decide, which overstates who will show up.
I moved to a different state about 9 months ago and I would normally have registered (independent/unaffiliated) to vote by now because I usually vote every election (+30 years). Since I don’t care for either party, I don’t plan on voting this cycle. Before, I always just bit the bullet and voted for whoever I believed to be the lesser of two evils; this time I say screw the spineless Democrats. I have as much respect for them & Obama as Obama & his administration have shown for the people who voted for him.
Nothing infuriates the pols and media more than voters who dont vote. Stay home on election day and enjoy all the talking heads on teee veee have hissy fits about voter “apathy”. LOL.
” ….It appears that the Republican Party’s brand remains damaged from the Bush administration …”
Curious on what basis you come to that conclusion? Seems like what has damaged the Republican Party the most is its lurch to right wing extremism, and in that regard the Teanuts have pushed the GOP over the edge.
LOL!
You got any evidence of that tarheel, or is this your version of wishful thinking?
If, say 15% of those that supported Obama and the D’s are now fed up and turned off, what evidence have you got that those 15% aren’t spread evenly among those that supported him?
I mean I think everyone understands that, say state A, supported him 67% to 33% while say state B supported him 51% to 49%, then, well, obviously 15% of 67 is more than 15% of 51, but it’s still roughly 15% of prior supporters.
Where is your evidence that this “I’m done with Obama and the D’s” is somehow geographically condensed?
This sounds a lot like wishful thinking to me.
See ya in November!!!!
i’m only considering voting for independents, and in places where none are on my ballot, or the ones that are there are crazy or secret republicans, i’m writing in Jane hamsher
fuck the dems, they backstabbed us the last 18 months on every single issue. anyone who’s still ok keeping the D by their name isn’t getting my vote
I’d like to see FDL do that.
Your little “jokes” are racist, offensive and not at all funny. Next time, please get your parents’ permission to use the computer.
Mr. Walker, I salute you, not only for a nice article, but especially for the ultra-rare and proper use of the apostrophe in your headline. Bravo!
Time for a national “None of the Above” option at the polls.
That’s what I’d be ticking if I could. I don’t want any of the people running for my Congressional seat.
It is highly unlikely that 15% is 15% in every Congressional District. More likely that it is 30% in say Nancy Pelosi’s district and almost zero in G.K. Butterfield’s district. And the average is 15%. And when you apply those percentages to the percent of the vote Obama got, more than likely there will be less of an effect on candidates in less Democratic districts and more of an effect in more Democratic districts. Which means that for Heath Shuler’s district there will be no effect because of the low percentage of Ds who are critical of Obama. And in Pelosi’s district, there will be an effect only if the critics and the Republicans are over 50% of the vote, which might be unlikely.
And the undecideds themselves probably won’t vote at all. They’ll sit it out.
OK, I mean I was just making up the 15% number out of my ass as a sort of “what if”, but I was wondering what you meant by the former Obama/Democratic supporters now Obama/Democratic detractors being geographically condensed.
I get that there will be more of them in a more D district. I don’t get how the percentage of disenchanted form D voters will be any different in different districs.
If I’m making any sense, which there’s a good bet I’m not.
I just wondered if you some polling to support that.
I mean doesn’t it sound strange to you to say that maybe 20% of Democrats in this district are unhappy with Obama but only 3% of Democrats in that district are unhappy with him. Wouldn’t it likely be similar, though obviously not exactly, accross the board among Democrats??
Maybe that was a better way of asking. Sorry for the confusion.
Whoops. Reading is fundamental.
I see you ARE saying exactly what I was asking.
Boy I had to read it thrice to get that. Losing my friggin mind.
Well, again, I’m wondering if you have any evidence of this? Is there some polling to support it? I remember seeing some recent polling that said something like IIRC 13% of Democrats were unfavorable in O’s approval rating. Did that poll break it down among states or regions and that’s where you’re getting this from?
Spare a thought for the stay-at-home voter
His empty eyes gaze on strange beauty shows
And parades of gray-suited grafters
A choice of cancer or polio
Mick Jagger/Keith Richards
According to Strunk and White, the correct way to express the possessive form of undecided is undecideds’s disdain.
Really, what they need to do for the 2012 election is, in the Presidential Candidate section put a third alternative that reads “none of the above”. So if nobody likes the Democratic or Republican candidate, then none of the above is chosen and the election cycle begins again with two new candidates!! I know, I’m dreaming!
I will likely go out to vote for Dem house members in an attempt to retain the voice of the only politician with power and cahunas in Washington who will speak out for the people once in awhile – Madam Speaker.
Campaign finance reform. *************(Pause for laughter)************** Now, please excuse me while I go munch on some razor blades and wash them down with bleach.
OFA, you turds, yup, I’ll vote: I’ll vote for “down ticket” candidates. For the “major” offices [e.g., that worthless piece of crap, Dan Inouye], I’ll vote for a Green, Independent or write in Jane Hamsher.
Unfortunately, for the races in my area, my vote won’t make a whit of difference. but for folks where it will — but where the choices are loathesome [e.g., crazy-ass Republican vs. spineless sell-out Democrat] –, I hope that people WILL vote [Green, Independent, write-in] just to demonstrate the number of voters out here who refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils. If you don’t vote at all, they can’t see that. [Look at how they're still denying the 800,000 who stayed home in the Coakley-Brown race].
If there is any chance the Democrats can redeem themselves and reclaim the mantel of The People’s Party, they first must be punished quite sharply this November. I agree, instead of an election boycott, vote for a down-ballot candidate or write in Jane. That sends a clearer message that can’t be explained by bad weather or important episodes of American Idol or Gossip Girl.
Of course we have a patchwork of election systems in this country, but it’s worth a shot anyway.
Singular possessive – undecided’s disdain (an undecided voter’s disdain)
Plural possessive – undecideds’ disdain (the undecided voters’ disdain)