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According to a new SurveyUSA poll, 50 percent of likely voters in California say they are certain to vote yes on Proposition 19, which would legalize, regulate and tax marijuana. On the other hand, only 40 percent of likely voters said that they are are certain to vote no on Prop 19.
SurveyUSA (8/9-11)
Prop 19
Certain Yes 50%
Certain No 40%
Not Certain 10%
Support for Prop 19 has remained unchanged over the past month. When SurveyUSA polled the same question one month ago, they found the same 50 percent of likely voters certain to vote yes and 40 percent certain to vote no. Combine this with a recent poll about marijuana legalization from Field and a PPP poll on Prop 19, and it seems that there is a bare but firm majority of California voters that supports legalizing marijuana.
This new poll finds most people people certain to vote one way or another on Prop 19 and relatively few undecided. It is unusual for so many people to have already locked into a position about a ballot measure three months away from the election, but clearly Prop 19 is much higher profile and easier to understand than most initiatives.
With most voters having already made up their minds about how they plan to vote on Prop 19, and with only about 50% certain to vote yes as of today, it looks like the initiative’s success or failure will come down to turnout.
Some potentially bad news on that front for supporters of Prop 19 , however, is a Pew poll that found young voters nationwide are not strongly engaged in this election or motivated to vote. Young voters tend to be much more supportive of marijuana legalization than older voters. It remains a question whether having marijuana legalization on the ballot can motivate many young voters to get to the polls in California this November.
21 Comments
Those darned professional left hempheads.
“It remains a question whether having marijuana legalization on the ballot can motivate many young voters to get to the polls in California this November.”; suggestions for getting them to turn out?
Free Pot??
Replying to nahant @ 3
Only after they vote!
Is the opposition spending much against it yet?
not yet but there is still time.
Spoil sport…./s
Replying to nahant @ 3 no need to do that just use the Reply button.. works real well.
Too bad the democratic party in CA refuses to support it.
Jane is on the Ed show MSNBC…
Go Jane!!! Just Say Now!!
I’m a bit amazed that so few undecideds appear to have made up their minds. Still, even they go with a coin toss, Prop 19 wins.
Assuming, of course, that all those folks make it to the polls.
I suspect undecided will probably break like 75% against which would be fine but still make it very close.
We’ve already won this battle. If it doesn’t happen this November it will happen shortly thereafter. The fact that we are even having this discussion, that Jane has appeared on TV discussing the legalization of pot, is HUGE and having that discussion was really the battle to be waged. We have already won.
A side note–many marijuana growers in California will be voting NO this November. Their profits are about to be destroyed and many of the northern California counties like Humbolt and Lake County rely heavily on tax income from pot growers to keep their governments running. The loss of tax revenue, during these already difficult times, will be devastating not only to the pot growers but to all the people who rely on government assistance in those areas. People will lose homes and cars and families will go hungry.
I think we need to start a new campaign here at FDL to help them out. Another round of voting on the campaign slogan? I suggest “Support Humbolt Families, Smoke Dope!” or maybe “The More you Buy, the Less they Cry.” Think of the children after all! ;-)
(only half joking)
Sorry, didn’t mean to make light of a difficult situation. There will be repercussions to legalization and they won’t all be good. I hope someone in Sacramento is working on solutions. Like in any industry, pot growers are people too and will have to find other ways to make ends meet once availability of pot drives down the prices. Maybe we can ask Obama to bail them out like he did with the banks and car companies. ;-)
They’re non-union, so it’s probably more likely.
Why is that? I can’t dispute this notion, but it’s an interesting one. Is there some reason you suspect most of these people are undecided?
normally if people are undecided about almost any ballot question they tend to break no. I think it will be even more for marijuana. I think the supporters are supporters. I many of the currently undecided will think it is taboo or be swayed by some reefer madness nonsense. We have been way to programed to think pot is illegal.
Pot doing better than Brown or Boxer: they need to get aboard the legalization train, right?
The strongest predictor of how someone will vote on Prop 19 seems to be their position on choice. Those who are pro-choice tend to be in favor of Prop 19. Those who are anti-choice are also against Prop 19.
interesting but it is only one poll. Need to compared to others who ask the same thing to see if it holds up.
If they do win, it will be on the coattails of mary jane, not the other way around. Dems are pre-programmed to shoot themselves in the foot.
I feel helpless as to how I could help get Prop 19 passed. And if it does, will we have to worry about a lawsuit by opponents? Seems like the Mexican Cartel Power argument is not as high profile as it should be. Tonight on The Ed Show was the first I had ever heard anyone talk about it on national TV. I am generally unfamiliar with it. Why isn’t this at the top of the debate at maximum volume?
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Vote-NO-On-Prop-19/138496216179977