That latest job numbers are bad news for the country, and, as a result, bad news for the incumbent political party, which will inevitably feel the brunt of voter anger over the economy. The country lost 131,000 jobs in July, and there is no indication the jobs market will improve in the three months leading up to the November election. Congressional Democrats have done nothing recently that should noticeably increase employment and nothing new is expected to become law in the next month. This is a recipe for a bad midterm election for Democrats.
The correlation between economic performance leading up to an election and the success of the incumbent party is very close. Bad economic conditions heading into an election have historically meant electoral losses for the party in power, and this year looks no different
The November election is fast approaching. People’s opinions about how the economy is doing will soon jell, if they haven’t already. Even if things begin to improve in late September, that could easily be too late to actually change minds and votes. There is now almost no time left for Democrats to do anything to significantly help employment before the election. That is why this jobs report is so important
Unlike tracking polls or horserace polls, this jobs report is probably the most important piece of political news in a long time. Democrats have failed to take the action needed to reduce unemployment before the election and will pay at the polls for this failure. Pathetic and fabulous excuses about weird Senate rules and a mean Republican minority are not going to change voters’ minds or save Democrats this November.