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Today, important primaries are taking place in Michigan, Kansas and Missouri. FDL Elections will be live blogging the results as they come in this evening.
Michigan
Governor–Perhaps the biggest action tonight will be Governor’s race here. Both parties feature competitive primaries. The latest polling shows a legitimate three-way race on the Republican side among Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and businessman Rick Snyder. Snyder owns a very small lead and millions of his personal wealth to spend on the race. On the Democratic side, it’s a battle between State Speaker of the House Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero was endorsed by the AFL-CIO, which is important in this labor-heavy state. He currently has a modest lead in the polls.
MI-01—Democrat Bart Stupak’s retirement from this fairly conservative district has Republicans viewing it as a possible pick-up. The two big Republicans running for the seat are Dan Benishek and Jason Allen. A poll from a few weeks ago had them effectively tied. Benishek banked a lot of national donations when he entered the race right after Stupak’s health care vote. Democrat Gary McDowell is unopposed.
MI-02–Conservative Pete Hoekstra is retiring from this right-wing district to run for Governor. Seven Republicans are fighting to succeed him. Given the district’s leanings and the election climate, the winner of this crowded primary will likely end up in Congress. A “Grand Rapids Press” poll gives former pro football player Jay Riemersma the lead with only 22 percent. Bill Huizenga and Bill Cooper are tied at 15 percent. With such a huge field and even spread in the poll, almost any of them could win tonight.
MI-03–Another Republican-leaning district with a retiring Republican has produced a GOP feeding frenzy. The fight is among Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman and Steve Heacock. The latest poll gives Amash a six-point lead with 28 percent to Hardiman’s 23 and Heacock’s 17. An endorsement from the Club for Growth is benefiting Amash.
MI-07–Freshman Dem Mark Schauer is in a swing district, and his race is rated a “Democratic Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report. This could be a pick-up opportunity for Republicans; their primary is between Brian Rooney and former Rep. Tim Walberg. Schauer beat then-incumbent Walberg in 2008. The only reference to any public polling I have seen on this race indicates Walberg has a significant lead.
MI-09–Freshman Dem Gary Peters is in better shape. His district is more blue and his race is rated “Likely Democratic.” But with a big GOP wave, it is possible he could lose. Four Republicans want the right to take him on, but the real fight is between Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and Paul Welday.
MI-13–Longtime incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in serious trouble. Her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, was forced out of office in disgrace after pleading guilty to several crimes, and he now faces trial on federal charges. The fallout from that is clearly hurting his mother. While several Democrats are challenging her, the most prominent opponent is Hansen Clarke. A poll from last month had Clarke beating Kilpatrick, 44-31.
Kansas
Senator–With Sen. Sam Brownback stepping down to run for Governor, the big fight is the Republican primary between Rep. Jerry Moran and Rep. Todd Tiahrt. The latest SurveyUSA poll has Moran with a 10-point lead over Tiahrt, 49-39. The winner is likely to be a huge favorite over whichever Democrat emerges from that party’s primary.
KS-01–Moran’s retirement opened up a safe Republican seat, with hungry GOP politicians leaping. Tracey Mann, Jim Barnett and Tim Huelskamp are all tied at 24 percent each in a recent SurveyUSA poll.
KS-03–This swing district has been held by Dem Dennis Moore, who decided to retire and have his wife run for the seat instead. Rated a “Lean Republican” by Cook, this is one of the Republican Party’s best pick-up opportunities this cycle. In the crowded Republican field, Kevin Yoder holds a huge fundraising advantage over all others. His only real competition is Patricia Lightner, but Yoder should win easily tonight.
KS-04–Tiahrt leaving this red seat open has set off a competitive primary. According to a SurveyUSA poll Mike Pompeo, Jean Schodorf and Wink Hartman all have a chance of winning, with Pompeo holding a small lead. Pompeo has also benefited from the endorsement of the Club for Growth.
I suspect Club for Growth’s power comes less from their willingness to challenge incumbents, which they do, and more from how they play strategically in these low-key primaries to replace retiring members. These contests provide a very high bang for your buck when it comes to electing individuals who are aligned with you or owe you a favor.
On the Democratic side, Raj Goyle holds a huge lead over Robert Tillman but will likely be an underdog in the general.
Insurance Commissioner–Two-term Republican insurance commissioner Sandy Praeger is being challenge by ultra-conservative David Powell. Powell is the Tea Party favorite and is running on a platform of using the position to “migrate the impact” of the new health care law until it is repealed. While he’s not expected to win, it will be interesting to see how well he does. As a health care policy expert, one of my many fears about the new law is that it leaves enforcement and implementation up to state officials who can be downright hostile to it, almost assuring failure. In another low note for democracy, no one from any other party is running for this office, so the winner of the GOP primary is guaranteed to fill the position.
Missouri
Senator: Rep. Roy Blunt is getting challenged by a slew of Republicans including the hard-right Chuck Purgason, but according to recent polling, he should win easily tonight. On the Democratic side, Robin Carnahan should also easily secure the nomination.
MO-04–Dem Ike Skelton has managed to hold on to this absurdly red district for a long time, but Republicans are hoping this will be the year his luck runs out. Cook has the race ranked “Lean Democratic.” Vicky Hartzler and Bill Stouffer have spent big in their fight to see who gets to be the Republican to take on Skelton.
MO-07–Roy Blunt gave up this extremely red seat to run for Senate. Whoever wins the Republican primary is almost assured to win the general. Billy Long, Gary Nodler and Jack Goodman are all competing for the GOP nomination.
Proposition C–Also on the ballot today is Proposition C: Missouri Health Care Freedom. It is an anti-individual- mandate ballot measure that is meant to block the government requirement to buy health insurance. The state legislature placed it on the ballot. This is the first of potentially several anti-individual-mandate ballot measures to be voted on this cycle.
17 Comments
I don’t believe Republican pick ups will be anywhere near as huge as most of the traditional media keep trying to tell me they are. That being said, there isn’t that much difference between the parties now. The Democrats are now Reagan Republicans while the Republicans are candidates for the nuthouse.
Vote!
It really does matter, even if the choices are far from being the best.
The alternative is the bad guys win without our participation.
And the bad guys currently scheming to do away with Social Security?
Obama’s candidacy energized huge numbers of new voters but I think the reality of his bait and switch tactics have turned a lot of those voters into cynics first time out.
Truly. That’s how the Nazis came to power and the current state of the conservatives is every bit as insane as they were, if marginally less bloodthirsty. For now.
That’s exactly my feeling on the situation as well.
Is Holy Bart retiring to devote his time to finding families for snowflake babies?
Who knows? I’d rather see a Republican in those seats than a Blue
DoucheDog anyway. At least we know what to expect from them.Unfortunately, I am cynical enough to believe they are ALL bad guys.
I’m still going to vote, right after work. I think Rocky will win, based on the tons of lawn signs I have seen. I wish someone had primaried Peters. Bernero/Dillon will be very close but I think Bernero will take it.
Kilpatrick is toast. I’ll reread this comment tomorrow to see if I predicted correctly. :^)
I can’t do that. I cannot vote for these asshats anymore. Sorry, I really DO believe both parties are indistinguishable when it come to ultimate effects. Regardless of Dem or GOPer, corporations win, the Constitution loses. Who voted for the Patriot Act? DEMOCRATS and GOPers. Who have voted and voted and voted for more more more war spending? DEMOCRATS. Who watered down healthcare “reform” to make sure it worked out precisely the way bigass corporate insurance wanted it? DEMOFUCKINGCRATS.
The list goes on and on and on. I cannot support it anymore so I either vote for ANYTHING but the Democrats or GOPers or don’t vote at all.
That’s cool, but vote anyway. Write in your own name if you have too. But register that vote.
If the situations starts slowly changing where the two major parties instead of getting 99% of the votes start getting 96%, then 92%, then 89%, beleive me, it will get noticed. (Assuming elections are still legitimate. I’m not sure anymore TBH, but if they’re not, then there is no point to this site or any of this discussion so I’d rather assume that they are legitimate).
If that percentage drops election to election and reaches new lows, then all those folks dreaming of a 3rd party will have the opening they’ve been waiting for and you’ll see change. It occurs too slow in this country for my liking, but at least change is possible. I know it’s possible because the government of the 1930′s is vastly different from the government of the 2000′s. If it changed once in that direction (way toward the right) then it can change back in the other direction.
I so wish someone would come up with a website we could all link too that had a name for all 435 districts that we could all agree to write in in protest. It could just be a blogger, a school teacher, anybody. Just a name in all the districts, and let’s see how many folks feel the same way as you. Then let’s see how many feel that way in 2012. And 2014.
If interest in that grows, beleive me, someone somewhere will be looking to take advantage of this new paradigm. And then the pace of change can be quickened.
SOrry for the length, but I feel such despair for my country and it’s future that I think our only hope IS change. And it may be too late now anyhow since it’s always so slow, but I can’t just give up. Hope you won’t’ either.
Want to point out that although Gary McDowell is unopposed in MI-01 for Stupak’s seat, he has virtually nothing out in the way of signage or broadcast advertising across most of the district. My gut tells me that the DCCC/DNC have written off this seat, even though this R+3 district was held by a Dem for more than a decade.
Another race to watch is MI-05 — that’s Dale Kildee, whose facing a primary opponent for the first time ever since he first ran for this district in the late 1970′s. Yes. You read that right. Kildee’s been in this seat for 34 years. He also voted with Pitts-Stupak, undermining his constituents desire for a public option to boot. If the constituents are truly in a throw-the-bums-out mood, Kildee’s underdog opponent, Scott Withers, will do some serious damage. Withers has received the endorsement of a couple women’s/abortion rights groups, indicating that women in the district are upset about Kildee. On the flip side, unions continue to dance with Kildee.
I think Hansen Clarke will take Cheeks Kilpatrick out. Clarke’s mostly good, certainly better than a number of other candidates running. The people of the Metro area certainly seem to have had enough of the Kilpatrick name.
Peters could have used a primary opponent pressing him on the issue of net neutrality. That’s a biggie. There’s a lot of homework to be done there, really need more effort from local party activists explaining to their CWA union fellows that net neutrality doesn’t threaten their jobs and ensures they still have freedom of speech over the internet.
I will vote, but it will be a write-in, a protest vote if you will…But I think part of your comment is regrettably true:
I find very, very little that even hints at legitimacy these days with these folks who are posing as ‘the people’s representatives’…I think that representation is in word only and is a significantly cruel joke that they all seem to want to perpetuate. They will get their wish come November, whether we vote or not…NO DIFF! It is all about degrees of insanity, not rational leadership!
Peters originally ran on the premise he would not vote for war funding unless it included dates for pulling out, etc, etc, blah, blah. He just voted for the war supplemental. He’s too right of center for my taste, too close to corporatism.
And hooray that Detroit is finally sick of the name Kilpatrick!
Media is reporting a light turnout for early in the day voting for Michigan. Hope it heavies up this evening. Hey, if you’re in Michigan and you’re reading this, you have until 8PM tonight to vote! Exercise your right!
I agree, OFG! Always a good site to keep an eye on- http://blackboxvoting.org/
MI-03 is even more interesting when the Dem is presented. The likely winner of today’s primary, Pat Miles, is one of the first Dems ever to enter this race with anything like full funding. It’s not just that Rep leader Justin Amash fan is a Club of Growth darling, Miles himself as a law school buddy of his own to count on, the President. Miles own centrism stands in contrast to Amash, but there is a noticeable distaste for right wing fringiness of Amash to make this a real race. Add that Kent County voted for Obama and that there is such a sharp contrast — this has the makings for a very interesting campaign.