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With the Michigan primary election just days away on August 3rd, there is currently no clear leader in the Republican gubernatorial race. The latest EPIC-MRA poll has the race effectively a three way tie among Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and Businessman Rick Snyder. In the Democratic primary, Virg Bernero holds a solid eight point lead over Andy Dillon.
Republican Governor Primary
EPIC-MRA (7/26-27)
Mike Cox 24
Pete Hoekstra 23
Mike Bouchard 10
Rick Snyder 26
Tom George 1
Undecided/Refused 14
Democratic Governor Primary
EPIC-MRA (7/26-27)
Andy Dillon 32
Virg Bernero 40
Undecided/Refused 28
Snyder has a mere two point lead over Cox and a three point lead over Hoekstra. Given the poll’s small sample size, 4.9% margin of error, large number of undecided voters and the difficulty of polling primaries, all three individuals seem to have a decent chance of winning the nomination on Tuesday. Snyder’s rise in the polls is quite remarkable and was in no small part a result of him being the best financed individual in the race. Snyder was able to spend millions from his own personal fortune on his campaign and it seems to have paid off.
The primaries this year seem to be dominated by extremely wealthy self-financed political novices beating veteran politicians. We’ve seen this happen in the two big GOP California primaries. It is also likely to happen in the GOP Connecticut Senate primary and in both the Florida Republican gubernatorial and Democratic senate primaries. The success of these self-financed political novices is probably a result of the general anti-establishment mode of this election that seems to favor “outsiders.” It is possible the increasing cost of running a winnable statewide campaign and the potential difficulties of raising funds in a down economy have also played a role.
I wonder how many self-financed billionaires who spend massively on their own campaign will take high office before Americans demand a system of voluntary public financing of elections so that actual middle class individuals can win important elections.
14 Comments
But when will Americans demand public financing?
Support Crazy Pete! Watch Emptywheel’s head explode!
Boxturtle (Bet she’d relocate to Chicago at the merest hint that Crazy Pete might get the job)
Um, no, please don’t. Remember, I’m in the process of moving to W MI. I’ve been counting on Crazy Pete losing so he doesn’t accrue more power.
As to Snyder, part of it is that he’s self-funding. Part of it is a generalized “none of the above” (to some degree, in both parties) for the political insiders. If Dillon were closer, I might well be thinking of a Snyder voter right now.
Remember, Granholm beat a much better known self-funder who spent, proportionally, in the neighborhood of what Whitman is spending in CA. It’s not JUST that Snyder is self-funding…
Self-funded billionaires with somewhat mysterious special interests vs. corporate-sponsored prostitutes with special interests that are more easily identified (yet largely ignored).
If MI doesn’t need Granholm any more please send her to SC. We need someone like Granholm.
Obama was the first presidential candidate since Nixon to refuse public financing for his presidential campaign.
I follow MI politics in a desultory fashion, but I follow it enough to feel good about Virg Bernero’s lead. After seeing home some on national news stuff (Maddow, maybe?), I came away impressed.
There really needs to be a scorecard to help introduce this phenomenal field to the FDL community, otherwise folks won’t be able to keep them all straight.
Mike Cox — dirtbag par excellence. The number of stories out there about him being caught in flagrante delicto in empty courtrooms is mind-boggling; he’s already made his spouse suffer through the affair confession in public ca. 2005 because of one such longer-term dalliance. Try Googling “Cox + Kilpatrick + Manoogian” for more dirt. He’s also got anti-gay, rabidly anti-abortion staffers on his team and encourages them in spite of the abuse these folks dish out to constituents.
Pete Hoekstra — stupid is as stupid does. He’s left a really wide wake of stupid behind him. Means well, but cannot be trusted with open flames or sharp objects. And a useful pawn of much bigger, uglier far-right ideologues.
Mike Bouchard — too big for his britches sheriff who thinks that’s enough cred to run this state. Far-right ideologue.
Rick Snyder — about the only guy on either side of the aisle I can’t find dirt on. Actually has serious money invested in Detroit.
Tom George — small-time far-right ideologue, very much against anything that will really turn this state around. Like investment in education or enhancing revenue.
Andy Dillon — began his political career as a Republican, born to a Republican family, is essentially the quintessential DINO. Hardcore anti-abortionist, is eager to put anti-abortion laws into effect in this state. Encouraged the sell-out of many state house members as current state house speaker, rumored to have promised many term-limited Dems a spot in his administration if only they would vote in line with the Republicans, prolonging the most recent budget crisis. Ask him about the signed agreement he made with Republican state senate leader Mike Bishop, never seen by the public or any other members of the Dem house; we can only deduce that it led to the budget negotiation collapse last year.
Virg Bernero — although he’s received the support of the AFL-CIO, Bernero has been sued by another union and cannot be reliably seen as pro-union over the course of his work history. Claims he’s helped save jobs in Lansing, but these are GM jobs which were really saved by the automakers’ bailout programs and concessions by the UAW. Much, MUCH more dirt on this guy is out there and as yet unreported by major Michigan news outlets, in no small part because they 1) have suffered so many cutbacks, and 2) are frustrated by the lack of a clear winner in the overall gubernatorial horse race. The current lead may be laid at the feet of union people and pro-choice women who don’t want Dillon or any Republican right-wing ideologue.
Oh, and Bernero has a very nasty temper and a filthier mouth. If you saw him on any broadcast, you saw him on his very best behavior. There’s video out there of him not behaving very much like a public official.
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So basically, I don’t have a dog in this race, given the spread of dirtbags to buffoons we are offered. I am planning on not filling in the blank for Governor come Tuesday’s primary. I guess that makes me one of the “Refused.”
Your characterizations seem dead on. I like what I know of Virg and certainly in comparison to Dillon. Virg can cuss and yell all he wants as long as it is not at a waiter or waitress. Maybe he can channel it into an Alan Grayson persona.
“Remember, I’m in the process of moving to W Mi”
Bring your oil clean up gear.
Rayne,
In the Michigan gubernatiorial primaries (scheduled for Aug. 3), it should be noted that Oakland County (Novi) sheriff Mike Bouchard — the 2006 Republican Senatorial nominee who attempted to unseat, but was landslided by, Sen. Debbie Stabenow — is in support of turning Michigan into a right-to-work state (code language for union busting).
http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/07/mike_bouchard_says_right-to-wo.html
Bouchard won’t get the nomination — let alone is he electable.
Best matchup, given the realities of the possibilites, would be with Rick Snyder vs. Virg Bernero.
ManwithaParachute (9) — Bernero does not have the temperament to avoid being an ass when reporters are present and video is running. As I said, he’s been on broadcast, specifically cable shows, when on his best behavior.
coolblue71 (11) — Bouchard’s popularity is highly local, confined to Oakland County which favors the ‘winger/white flight crowd. He’s got no name cred across the rest of state, in spite of his 2006 Senate run. I saw exactly one Bouchard sign across most the Upper Peninsula, so he’s not making a credible run for this term, only building his brand, IMO.
Agreed on match-up, Snyder would force Bernero to step up his game (and ditch some of his more troublesome campaign staff), and Bernero may force Snyder to the left just a hair. Not much, though, as I suspect that both men are centrists. All bets are off, though, if some of the really dirty dirt emerges — one of these guys would go down in flames and it would be spectacularly nasty.
I recommend stocking up on Michigan-grown Zastrow’s popcorn, just in case.
[edit: I should point out that I've traveled a rather large chunk of the state over the last month and seen quite a few television ads in different markets from both parties' candidates. Only one guy has altogether resisted going negative -- that's Snyder. He also didn't neglect northern lower and upper peninsula residents, bought significant ad time there along with signage. Saw Cox ads, but he'd gone negative early; saw Hoekstra signs, but he put them out very late in same northern lower/upper Michigan market.]
Snyder used to work for Ford Motor Co and Ford is backing him.
Just another biz man serving biz needs.
http://www.rickformichigan.com/michigan-talks/campaign-news/07-26-2010-icymi-snyder-ad-feature-bill-ford-jr-endorsement-detroit-fre
Yeah, I saw that Ford had come out for him in his most recent ad. Ford usually doesn’t stick his neck out like this.
It’s important to keep in mind this guy may be a biz guy serving biz interests, but he’d still have to deal with the reality of a hyper-partisan and polarized Dem state house and Republican state senate to get anything done. That might actually be the best outcome: a deadlocked state for four years.
Just run out the scenarios:
–If any Republican wins, the state will be driven into the ground with help by the Republican state senate.
–If Dillon were to win, he’d be a proxy for business given his financial backing and he’d govern like a Republican.
–If Bernero were to win in November, the state would remain deadlocked because Bernero (who has no experience in the legislature) cannot persuade a Republican state senate to move at all to the left and they’d do everything possible to make any future run for office by Bernero untenable while savaging Dem branding.
A simple deadlock might be preferable. It couldn’t be any worse than our current situation.
If only I could believe that Dems could take back the state senate, the scenarios would change…real Dems, though, none of those DINO Dems…