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The latest PPP poll (PDF) shows Florida Gov. Charlie Crist holding on to his modest plurality in his independent bid for the United States Senate. Republican Marco Rubio comes in second, and the official Democrat is stuck in the teens. Despite being one of the most polled contests this year, the dynamic in the Florida Senate race has remained remarkably stable for weeks. This is the first poll I’ve seen that includes Libertarian Alex Snitker, who is polling in the low single digits and does not seem to have much of an effect on the race.
PPP (7/16-18) (PDF)
Charlie Crist 35
Marco Rubio 29
Kendrick Meek 17
Alex Snitker 4
Undecided 15
Charlie Crist 38
Marco Rubio 29
Jeff Greene 13
Alex Snitker 3
Undecided 16
The poll shows Crist gets a mild boost if self-financed millionaire candidate Jeff Greene manages to beat Kendrick Meek in the Democratic primary on August 24. Greene’s victory could be an even bigger gain for Crist than this poll indicates. Meek, as a long-time Democratic official in the state, probably has a fair amount of traditional Democratic-leaning institutional support. Greene likely does not inspire that same loyalty. If he wins the nomination, some liberal groups and individuals might back Crist with a clearer conscience.
I don’t foresee the dynamics of the race really changing at least until September, when the Democrats can start focusing full time on the general election. Even by then, the Democrats may have been polling in the teens for so long it might become impossible for their choice to break out of the trap of being viewed as a spoiler candidate.
The one piece of good news for Democrats is that 55 percent of Crist voters want him to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, and only 22 percent want him to caucus with Republicans. The tricky thing for Crist will be if he can keep that 22 percent if or when he is forced to say what party he plans to caucus with.
Crist is the perfect beneficiary of the current political environment, where voters are extremely disappointed with Democrats but also have little trust that Congressional Republicans will do the right thing. People can vote against the Democrats by selecting the independent Crist, without thinking they are giving Congressional Republicans more power.
15 Comments
Crist will caucus with Lieberman — as long as their headquarters gets a Queer Eye for the Straight Guy makeover.
Is Florida a runoff state, for the general, if no one breaks 50% in the November election?
Who’s got the big cash (and money backers), Rubio or Crist? The big-gun TeeBee ads will start coming out September-October.
no not a runoff state in the general. I believe Georgia is the only state with general election runoff elections
Rubio is pulling in more money but burning through it quickly. Crist has some decent fundraising numbers and a very large pile of cash on hand
Socialist of Florida for me. I live in Orlando but I don’t see myself voting for Crist, I have never voted for a repug in 26 years of being able to (even in an all-repug county in IL) and can’t see myself voting for a turncoat repug either. That batshit crazy Rubio would shake things up a bit, that’s for sure: the final crisis of Capitalism.
There’s no socialist on the ballot running for the Senate unless one of the write-ins is a socialist.
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanList.asp
I live in California and would roughly equate that statement to me voting for personality-disordered, and ultra-wealthy Meg Whitman. Ain’t. Gonna. Happen.
Well, as I have said I won’t vote for a repug ever. I just think in terms of what they will do in the Senate the difference between Crist and Rubio is marginal, at best, and I am through voting for the evil of two lessers.
I hear ya…
Ah, I’ll bet they couldn’t afford the fee ($10k for Senate) this year, they only needed 112k signatures. They don’t have any recommendations on their website, just stuff about Gaza and the IDF being nazis. Typical disorganized left….
Meek is the archetype Democrat…that is to say, despicable. The 17% must all be family. Crist really is the best of the three. There was a socialist…in ’06, I think…Bryan Weiss, I think. But last I heard, he
was running for president in CA. He looked pretty good, but he left. Crist does not compare to Lieberman. Lieberman would be happy with the R’s
(his people), except he wouldn’t have the power. Crist would not be the farthest right among the D’s.
Well, I’ve been seeing and hearing TV and radio ads from both Crist and Rubio for months. Not a peep from Meek. It is ever thus here in deep Florida republican country. The dems don’t even try and don’t spend a penny here, which is unfortunate and foolish, because the last 3 house elections saw an unfunded candidate come within a few hundred to a low thousand votes of unseating our corrupt R representative.
We’ve got record unemployment, the economy here is totally tourism and (was) the housing industry, and there are lots of immigrants and poor people of color who can be convinced to GOTV. Of course electing a democrat in today’s climate is no guarantee of any change to speak of but still, one can hope.
I also think that Crist would be more progressive than Bill Nelson by half. That doesn’t take much though, LOL.
I would like someone to start the rumor that Alan Grayson will challenge Bill Nelson in the Dem Senate primary in 2012. If Grayson doesn’t look past this year’s election, that is.
I live in the district next to Grayson, and I am on his mailing list, he isn’t taking the election for granted if the volume of emails I get is any indication.