Californians want to fight it out on marijuana legalization, ease up on budgeting procedure and stay strong on resisting climate change, according to Field Poll (PDF) results on some of the state’s ballot initiatives. Field surveyed on four of the 10 Propositions that will be on the ballot this November.
Prop. 19: Marijuana Legalization
The poll shows Prop. 19 losing narrowly, 48-44, with eight percent undecided. Of all four ballot initiatives polled, it had the most voter recognition. A full 77 percent of those polled had heard of it. This continues the pattern we have seen in other polls, with almost all voters having an opinion of Prop. 19 and very few undecided.
Men slightly favor Prop. 19, 48-47, but women disapprove, 50-41. The Field Poll also confirms the pattern of young voters under the age of 30 heavily supporting marijuana legalization, 52-39, but those over 65 opposing it strongly, 57-33. Support divides fairly evenly for voters between 30 and 65. The success or failure of Prop. 19 will probably depend on whether marijuana legalization being on the ballot motivates young supporters to turn out in unusually high numbers.
Prop. 25: Majority Vote for State Budget
This measure to eliminate the super-majority requirement of a two-thirds vote in the state legislature to pass a budget has super-majority support among voters. Among California voters, 65 percent support the measure while only 20 percent oppose it, and only 15 percent are undecided. It even has majority support among Republican voters, 58-25. While it’s still early, Prop. 25 looks likely to pass in November.
The two-thirds requirement to pass a budget, along with the two-thirds requirement to pass tax increases, has caused nearly endless gridlock in Sacramento, perennially late budgets and unpopular horse trading to get the last few votes. It has created huge dysfunction in the state government, and it looks like the voters have finally had enough. For non-California readers, think about how extremely dysfunctional the US Senate is with its 60-vote super-majority requirement to end a filibuster.
Prop. 25 will restore a simple majority vote to pass the budget but leave in place the two-thirds requirement for tax increases. Prop. 26, which would impose a two-thirds requirement on new fees or levies, was not polled
Prop. 23: Suspension of State’s Climate-Change Law
Prop. 23 is on the ballot because two big oil companies spent millions to put it there. It is another disgusting display of corporations literally trying to buy favorable laws by using the ballot initiative system. If passed, Prop. 23 would suspend AB32, the state’s greenhouse-gas reduction law.
The poll finds California voters rejecting this attempt to gut climate-change legislation. It is currently losing, 48 percent opposed to 36 supporting, with 16 percent undecided. Democrats and nonpartisans strongly oppose the measure, but Republicans support it.
The strong opposition to Prop. 23 should send a signal to politicians in Washington, DC, where climate-change legislation is all but dead. Even while experiencing one of the worst economic downturns in decades, voters in California are still committed to regulations meant to reduce global warming.
Prop. 18: Water Bonds
The state legislature put the proposition on the ballot to approve a $11.1 billion bond measure related to water development. It is currently winning 42-32 but has a very high undecided rate of 26 percent. Only about one-quarter of voters had heard of Prop. 18 before the poll, so opinions are definitely not firm. Of all the ballot measures polled, this one is likely to see a significant change in the level of support going forward.



23 Comments
Thanks for the rundown, Jon
As always the GOTV matters most.
Awesome Jon
Assembly Budget Committee Chair Noreen Evans explains the budget (destroys right wing talking points)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogfNEw2XSbY
Prop 25 info and a petition to sign
Book Salon up at the Mothership with Robert Kuttner’s A Presidency in Peril: The Inside Story of Obama’s Alliance with Wall Street hosted by Mark Thoma
Marijuana ministry in Hilo “busted” by feds
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2010/07/10/marijuana-ministry-in-hilo-busted-by-feds/
Pot is slipping away, and will be dashed on the shoals of yet another lying “save our children” campaign just as Prop 8 was won. It’s the cynical manipulation of the electorate again, and with women skeptical already it won’t be too difficult.
Also, the opposition of all but three of California’s federal electeds and office-seekers will make the cynical among the young less likely to turn out for pot and, thus, for them.
I hope the majority rules prop passes. However, it will have tough sledding against a gazillion Rethug ads declaring an increase in taxes if it wins. This is one to watch.
Think Arnold is bad? Fiorina is a “Wall Street” candidate par excellance and electing her would definitely make Prince Sparkle Pony cry.
Take a tentacle off the Vampire Squid, California: block Fiorina AND legalize marijuana unless you really, really enjoy being mined by the petro-pharma dollar/Casino complex that just makes a handful of European banking interests richer while we get to eat cat food (see “New TARP revelations: AIG bailout mishandled, shaky banks got loans too“).
You’re correct to point out the clear, incisive messaging that Noreen Evans can always be counted on for.
Regarding Prop 19, I’m afraid that the messaging is all on the no-side.
It would be great to inform voters of the serious problem of seizure and forfeiture laws. That law enforcement agencies directly benefit in every way from the continued criminalization – especially on the federal level – a clear conflict of interest that is never mentioned.
Currently, the Proposition polls poorly with mothers of school age children. Just my opinion, but I think it more accurately reflects a mother’s concern about not being present during the post school hours due to demands from the job, and a real lack of family friendly workplace policies.
I hope that the voters will pass this reasonable, harm and crime reducing prop.
OT– more sweet self-help for California, the 8th largest economy in the world:
- from “Mutual Fund Avoids Big Banks“
Think you mean Meg, who is running to replace Arnie?
What we need is a way to reach out to those moms of the little kids and let them know that the biggest threat to their kids is not drugs, especially pot, but in fact, the police. When their kids are teens and young adults is the time to worry about them getting busted, it will ruin their life. Pot never will.
Also, the messaging about pot needs to include the FACT that it prevents rape by cutting down on drinking. I’d really like to know why our police encourage drinking, I think it is a part of their ethnic cleansing campaign. But maybe that is because I self identify as a Native American.
Wrong.
Fiorina is running for the US Senate, Meg Whitman for CA’s Governor.
Plus all that John McCain apple-polishing she did in ’08 isn’t a great resume item.
Thought Californians were going to vote on the 14-word proposition that all budget and revenue measures would be decided by majority votes in the legislature. Is that measure not reported and losing so badly, it’s hopeless? This is the one where Jerry Brown, as Secretary of State, reworded the voters’ pamphlet summary to use terms like ‘tax increase’ and ‘raise taxes’ repeatedly, essentially reversing positive poll numbers for the measure.
I am as left-of-center as anyone, but when I actually read AB32, my guts tell me that these draconian constraints on industry, manufacturing and transportation will cost a fortune and further cripple our state’s already fractured economy. Read AB32 and ask yourself if any industry will relocate here…state taxes, employer liabilities, bloated real estate valuations, red tape central…
I don’t buy the Air Resources Board’s scientific conclusions either. They all seem to simply knee-jerk-react by creating mandates from studies that any scientific overview would find suspect (pretty bad science). The ARB folks surely mean well, but far too often science lacks the consciousness to ask the big hard questions: if we mandate, will it help? What percentage of prior smog mandates reduced pollutants and by what degree? If our former record was one of hit-or-miss smog laws, what makes AB32 any different? How about a federal mandate enacting and legalizing hitch-hiking stations throughout America? Providers would recieve gas and tax credits, traffic jams reduced (less smog), commute times lowered, etc. Those driving alone can pay double at toll booths (bikers ride for free).
Obviously, such a plan is too logical, politically dangerous, and quite presumptuous; for it asks people to treat others as they would treat themselves. Our planet cries out for mankind to harmonize, and 200 plus years of ‘industrialization’ begs for a new forum, for new careers in sustainability, agribusiness, permaculture, gardening… If every cent AB32 will suck up were spent on permaculture and organic gardening, the biomass created would inhale smog and vent O2, lower heart rates, improve diet, empty hospitals and initiate Nirvana…
Why are people worried about Prop 19? 1) I haven’t seen any heavy ads or anything. 2) GOTV is always important, when hasn’t it been? 3) The women that don’t support it are likely mothers under that “Save the Children” nonsense.
As long as the College Aged and those in High School over 18 turn out in decent numbers (it doesn’t have to be record) it will pass.
This is being pushed hard likely under the radar, its not even did being discuss on a national level really.
Stop being a worry wart.
If businesses want to make the air unhealthy and use energy like they can’t afford to use it wiser, then they can leave, a new company will come up in their place.
SB810 will take much pressure off of businesses.
Health Care and Employees cost more than going green or using less energy.
All that might seem to be true
But I used to work for a company that 1) installed energy saving lights that saved 50 grand per month and 2) recycled all the old cardboard and metal for another 20 to 30 thousand per month
Going green saved money and made us more efficient
Personally, I’ve got some sympathy for the down-market domestic dealers who are hardly AK-toting Mexican dynasty gangsters but who have been getting their skulls broken and their lives ruined for years by cops and criminals alike so that the pampered consumer of pot can have his cake and eat it too – getting all the benefits of (black-market-inflated, I admit) access to the substance while letting the people who get it to them go to jail, even if it’s just some kid trying to pay the rent and his community college debt.
Legalization comes through, they get replaced by Daddy’s budding little businessman with $1 million in seed cash and a house in the Bay Area, and go from being legally screwed to financially screwed, right as we admit that by risking their lives by violating these laws, they weren’t actually doing anything wrong.
Maybe it’s just because I’m descended from rum runners. But it kind of sucks that even the boutique market won’t have a place for the entrepreneurs that provided the access to pot in the first place – the access that’s slowly leading to the proper conclusion that it’s a fairly harmless vice.
All of the prohibitionists’ arguments boil down to a single point: If my child (or yours) gets a little off track and starts using marijuana, the prohibitionists want to put them in PRISON. Prison is not good for my kids or for yours, and it’s much worse than the effects of marijuana, so we can pretty well disregard all of the prohibitionist nonsense about keeping it illegal to protect our children. I hope my kids steer clear of marijuana, but I REALLY hope that if they do use a little marijuana, they don’t end up in prison.
If you’re a California citizen (or if you want to pass this along to any California citizens), Californians can register to vote at w w w . sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_vr.htm by completing the online form and mailing it to the address on the form.
Three questions about the California ballot choice on marijuana:
1) Would I want my child to go to prison if he or she tried a little marijuana?
2) Am I ready for the “October Surprise” from the Drug War side?
3) How do I register to vote? (Those registering by May 24 2010 can vote in the Primary Elections on June 8. Those registering by October 18 can vote in the November 2 General Election.)
Citizens of California can go online and register to vote by completing an online form and mailing it to the address on the form. The form is available at
h t t p s : / / w w w .sos.ca.gov/nvrc/fedform/
(You’ll need to copy and paste the URL into your browser and then remove the blank spaces in the “h t t p s : / / w w w” part order to activate the URL. )