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Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Political Report, sees a Republican wave coming in November. While not always right, Cook has been at this for a long time and is a respected name in political forecasting.
Among all voters, there has been a significant swing since 2008 when Democrats took their new majority won in 2006 to an even higher level. But when you home in on those people in this survey who are most likely to vote, the numbers are devastating. The NBC/WSJ survey, when combined with a previously released NPR study of likely voters in 70 competitive House districts by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger, point to an outcome for Democrats that is as serious as a heart attack. Make no mistake about it: There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge.
Anyway you slice it, the numbers are bad news for Democrats. Cook points out that Democratic voters are less enthusiastic about voting, and the generic ballot has swung in the Republican direction. This dire warning from Cook will send Washington Democrats into a further panic, which will probably result in them doing even more things that will crush enthusiasm among their base. They’ll ramp up their misguided faux deficit fear-mongering while millions struggle without a lifeline in the recession.
I want to make a small point about the generic ballot. Democrats currently hold an unusually large majority in the House. In 2008, Democrats won about 53 percent of all votes cast for Congress. To keep all their House seats, Democrats don’t need to win just the majority of votes cast for Congress but need to receive a similarly big majority of them. Even if Democratic candidates manage to get a majority of votes for Congress in November, if it’s only a small majority, say 50.5 percent, the result will be a large loss of seats.
This November, especially because of how districts are gerrymandered, Republicans could win what is declared an overwhelming victory, a net gain of 30 or more seats, even though Democrats receive more total votes for Congress than Republicans.
63 Comments
Jon, you’re correct. The dims are going to panic and become even more rethuglian to their detriment. The dims realize that their masters, the corps, don’t care which group is in
poweroffice, the masters simply want their wishes obeyed. What the population at large wants is beside the point.Someone should expand on this assertion.
a lot of it has to do with the requirement to have minority majority districts. It ends up producing some extreme democratic districts.
Right on! They don’t care what the party label is just as long as those with the power in DC do as their told. Barry so far has done just that while talking his shit non-stop. Frankly, I wish he’s STFU already because every time he opens his pie hole it gets progressively ( the only thing that is progressive about this guy) worse for the rest of us out here. Does he really care? Not a bit as far as I can see. He’ll just climb on the Billy Clinton speech band wagon after his one term and get his big fees while all the while blaming whomever. He’s more pathetic even the BV$H if that’s possible.
Jon, that was way too easy to predict. if you want to impress us with your prognosticating skills, you’ll have to find another subject! /s/
As usual, the Dims are on top of their game.
Hey Dims: Prove you can read.
Renew unemployment benefits. Today. Start major infrastructure projects. Today.
Does the word “today” mean anything to you, Dims?
Idiots.
Well if Cook said it, then you can be assured this is the Conventional Wisdom in Washington. The Democrats certainly deserve to be creamed in November. The natural beneficiaries of any rejection of the Democrats will be the Republicans. Although with some of these being Teabaggers, the Republicans are likely to see their ongoing civil war move from their base to their officeholders. I can’t help but think that progressives lost a major opportunity by trying to work with Democrats on issues like healthcare rather than recruiting and running grassroots populist progressives to primary Democrats. If they had, progressives, not Republicans, would be the ones gaining in the coming election.
Still I have to wonder how big the defeat in November will be. Democrats should lose swing districts, but others not so much, even with a depressed base. After Pelosi’s conniving to get a vote on the cat food commission recommendations, I would dearly like to see a populist campaign against her. But I’m not from California, and I don’t know what the deadlines are or if a write-in candidate is allowed. And as happens so often, the anger over the latest Democratic betrayal is already fading and being forgotten.
Finally and ultimately, I have to say I don’t care if Democrats get hammered in November. We will have catastrophically bad government no matter which party is in control. The Republicans are more annoying, but the Democrats have shown themselves to be more dangerous: putting anti-choice language into their healthcare plan, the individual mandate, slashing Medicare by $400 billion, and the cat food commission and the attacks on Social Security. And either way we will still get the same corporatist agenda, and we will still have depression in 2011, or sooner.
I sense your total frustration. Understood. It’s unclear what it would take to get our elected representatives to understand the real reason for the lack of enthusiasm on the part of their supporters. More of that old “none so blind as he who will not see”, I guess.
Democrats. Republicans. They all suck. Boycott the legacy parties!
Yep. The corps are the masters and we the people are nothing more than sheeple. Debt slaves with massive ADD and ADHD. Whose memory is so bad that we can not even remember what the pols said yesterday.
The MSM, the 4th leg of the republic, has become nothing more than the favorite tool of the corporate oligarchs to control the masses.
The future looks bleak to me. Really glad I won’t live long enough to see the final fall of the republic into a morass of Authoritarianism and religious fundamentalism. Nope, we are in The Decline and Fall of the American Empire. All due to life long political jobs in congress, which was never ment to be a career but a sacrifice to the well being of the republic. The founders were more than a little naive about human nature, weren’t they?
But then again when the polity becomes uninformed about the issues and education falters, the rot starts from within. The sheeple care more for sports and “reality” (read unscripted) TV programs than they do for good govt then the rot spreads until all we can say is that we sat on our asses while the edifice of democracy crumbled around our ears and we turn to Authoritarian Leaders simply because they promise results without pain and when we elect such a leader and leave them alone because we would rather live in a fantasy world of TV, then we will indeed get the govt we deserve. And we will not like it one little bit. But by then it will be far far to late. The Authoritarian police state that we wished for will have arrived. But the majority will not be anglo but hispanic. The Decline and Fall of the “White” American Majority. Hello to the new rulers. The Asians and the Hispanics. And the old majority? The old whites over 50, uneducated, ignorant and proud of that ignorance will finally reap what they sowed. And they will not enjoy that experience.
The Trojan Horse effect.
No one should be surprise, Obama and Rahm mission from day one has been to wipe out the Democratic majority and destroy the little power progressives have in the house.
crap like this just does not happen after Bush. Obama and Rahm had to work hard at making people hate dems, and the phony dems played along.
the USA currrently has two corporate parties. (the party of FDR has been hijacked by a bunch of Neo-Idiots)
it gets better, Obama will get to finally work with his party. (remember Obama has already passed the Bob Dole health care plan, Bob Dole is a republican)Watch how Obama screams and hollars as he signs republican bill after republican bill again acting like he is a Dem, Obama and Rahm will laugh for days at how they con all the Dems.
come 2012 Obama will act like he is running against the GOP, and start begging progressives to vote for him, because he is a good corporate politician. (Obama will have a flash back to 2008)
how is all this possible? because the so call liberal media that is own by rich Republicans allows this to happen.
the end game is simple, keep real progressives out of congress and the white house.
How many dems voted for the public option? zero
How many dems voted for an up and down vote on the public option?zero
And do the Dems really deserve to keep their big majority?
There are a couple of things which always make me kind of leery about making predictions this early.
Basically, until we know who all is running, it is impossible to make firm predictions. Not long ago, the conventional wisdom was that Harry Reid was toast, but now it looks very good for him to win reelection. The conventional wisdom was that the next Senator from Florida was Marco Rubio, but now it appears to be Charlie Crist. I expect that the Dems will lose some seats while gaining others. I expect them to pick up New Hampshire but lose Arkansas.
Each race is unique. I expect the Dems to lose some of their majority, but not lose the majority entirely. That is still up in the air, but this is what I’m seeing as of this second.
Scary times we’re living in…
“and destroy the little power progressives have in the house”
And for that they get my undying thanks.
Sign of the times:
Vacationing in far Northern Wisconsin this 4th of July weekend and attended the local parade. This part of WI is not traditionally Dem territory but none-the-less the Democratic Party was out is full force and quite high on Obama. Quite a contrast this year where Obama’s presence was intentionally missing. Dems in the parade carried huge photos of JFK, Eleanor Roosevelt, LBJ and Truman.
And why is that?
Either way, conservative-minded politicians win. Right?
Perhaps FDL can use the almost-certain upcoming recession/depression as a “shock doctrine” to move us away from Corporatist rule.
We need to split the Teabaggers from the Republicans AND split the Progressive from the Democrats. The Progressives (issue-based, not self proclaimed) are the largest group of the 4.
Can we achieve issue-based voting? It would sure beat identity-based voting (Repub vs. Dem) and we might get back to sane governing.
Please someone, post links – sites – politicians whom we can count on to move government forward. I fear we are sliding into 1920′ territory.
“Democrats currently hold an unusually large majority in the House.”
Too bad they didn’t recognize it and act accordingly.
What I’m thinking is going to really burn my hide come November, is if Cook is correct those people in what will be the former majority will accept no responsibility for smacking their base upside the head every chance they got when they lose, but will blame the ignorance of the voting public.
Jerks.
I agree, Barry will be happy to be able to help his party ( the Gopers that is.) He’ll sign everything they dish up to him and he’ll whine and moan in public as he does it ( and laugh and celebrate in private) and blame all of us for not helping him, while he’s at it. He’s a lying sack of shit who thinks the rest of us are fools. What we are @ this juncture is irrelevant, not fools. He’s destroying the Dems. from inside like the cancer he really is.
define democrat?
most of the current democrats in congress would hug Reagan before they would hug FDR.
what progressives have to understand, and we keep forgetting this simple fact. GOOD GUYS FINISH LAST!
Obama lied his way into the White House, just like a lot of the other dems in congress.
it will be great day when a real progressive acts like a tea party follower and once he gets to congress becomes a hard core liberal. (this is exactly what Obama done, he acted like a progressive and once he got to the white house became George Bush)
Imagine, we will have Sharron Angle, Gorman, Carly and Meg all following Sarah. and Rand in Kentucky.There are lots of them out there, came out of the woodwork once they saw they could win. And I agree that the dems will hurt themselves by buying into all this cut the spending and deficit shit. Still time for the dems to turn it around but they don’t seem to have the fire.
And now the ultimate irony.
Obama sold out to Wall Street and now they are not paying up….
Since Tea Baggers are running against Republicans, there’s a big split going on which may help Dems. It’s not possible to tell how many Progressives will vote for Obama and other Dems. If most Progressives feel like the ones here at FDL, they won’t be voting for many Dems, IMO
You can never Out Republican Republicans. Obama and Rahm think they can suck up to the corporate types, but in the end they will go for the real thing.
One thing I can guarantee….as a one term president, you’ll never see Obama building houses for the poor like Jimmy Carter.
Charlie Cook was wrong and off the mark in 08 and will be again in 10. He like most in DC listen to each other and the media both network and cable and not the people who actually work precincts…wards and who get people to the polls to actually vote. The GOP is great copy and makes newsy shows..well newsy…but the reality is that the Tea Party are the same brown-shirts who elected Ronald Reagan and who cling to the belief that they are the REAL americans.white god fearing real america…the same minority that will always believe in the black helicopters hovering over head waiting to implement that one world government thing and of course the biggie..Armageddon the evangelical and charismatic christians(Palin) crowds fav. Sadly some on the left, the democrats and the media seem to buy into the bullshit and live in fear of the boogie man…thats what kept Bush in office for 8 years….that boogie man. THought we had grown up.
The 2012 elections are still a long way off.
But, at this point, other then a few Obamabots, I can not see anyone supporting him.
The only people who will be surprised by this will be Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, et al. Of course they will get a lifetime pension no matter what. The repubs will mistakenly look upon this as an American return to conservatism and their neocon thinking.
you are correct!
we all just need to ask one simple question
what was the number one issue in the USA in 2008? Jobs
what is the number one issue in the USA today? Jobs
Obama, Rahm, and the phony dems intentionally avoided the Job issue. WHY? because if they had done the obvious thing and fix the economy via FDR tactics the GOP would no longer exist.
instead Obama gave us an individual mandate, making all americans buy insurance. (I did not meet anyone in 2008, talking about how great it would be to force all americans to buy health insurance)
again, it takes a lot of hard work, to make Bush look popular again,
Obama is a TROJAN HORSE
Whoa, whoa…
The progressives lost a major opportunity? The progressives weren’t given a seat at the table. You are misrepresenting the facts. Progressives were never given an opportunity to be involved.
I don’t come here as often as I once did because I don’t want to be associated with you FIREBAGGERS! You people are really ignorant and childish. While the Dems aren’t doing enough to over come this bullshit 60 vote shit, I’m wondering who you [edited by mod] are going to vote for? You people are embarrassing. Go ahead, vote Republican or stay your dumb [edited by mod] home!
[modnote: please, no namecalling]
So for some perspective, where you hangin’ now?
Forgot “pony” mention.
Again:
For some perspective, I (for one) would like to know where you’re hanging now? There must be some sites that you frequent on that Interweb Machine.
Fuck em. Useless eaters.
That is precisely the problem. Progressives needed to organize on their own. No one was ever going to “give” them the opportunity. We needed to take the initiative. We didn’t.
Hi roxsteady.
: )
Obama will lose in 2012, too. Just you watch.
That gave me a morning chuckle, thanks. Just the very image, which will never happen, as you point out.
The Democrats had the Presidency and the largest Congressional majorities in 80 years. And they did jack with them. If the situation was reversed, do you think that Republicans with those kinds of numbers would have allowed Democrats to obstruct them? And if you do, then why didn’t Democrats obstruct Republicans during the Bush years?
You just seem to be shooting the messenger here. The Democrats screw up and betray their base at every turn. We point this out, and we’re the bad guys?
Well, christ, Hugh. We did about as much as humanly possible during the HCR fiasco, and EVERY SINGLE ONE of those little punks in congress and the punk in the WH lied and sold out.
We took the initiative!
Hugh?
Progressive got CON by Obama! it is that simple.
Obama walked and talked like a progressive all the way to the white house.
Progressives under-estimated the extremes the elites would go to, to stay in power.
Hugh?
you can never forget the power of the corporate/govt media that protects Obama. (this is not the media of walter cronkite)
without the so call liberal media, that is owned by rich republicans Obama would never have gotten away with all the lies and deception.
progressives must re-calculate their approach to politics, it is pretty simple. Progressive candidate must learn to say anything to get elected and once elected become hard core progressives.
remember one hard core progressive in the senate and a couple in the house would have destroyed the OBAMA agenda and force the debate to move to the left.
remember OBAMA kept the senate and house from voting on the Public Option, because he knew it would pass, because no Dem could vote against it and win re-election.
Oh, for crying out loud. What a bunch of whiners. The Dems/Obama save the auto industry and the financial sector, pass health care, will pass financial reform, pass student loan reform, negotiate a new arms control treaty with the Russians, draw down 40,000 troops out of Iraq, pass meaningful education reform, and none of it is good enough. Because each piece of MAJOR legislation had compromises that didn’t please the hardcores, somehow NOTHING got done, the Democrats suck and have losses in 2010 coming, Obama is a Republican stooge and all is doom.
How about you realize that more has gotten done in 18 months than during any time in arguably 75 years? How about you realize that much of the gloom is self-imposed misery because the Democrats don’t even know they’re WINNING when they are, and whine about a lack of perfection. How about we keep in mind that the hole we are in is deep and dark and we were put there by a Republican administration and people are negative because of that? And instead of sitting and whining that Obama didn’t do this or that, begin to realize how much has gotten done, and how little good will get done by a Republican majority congress? And to those iiot, and boy you are idiots, who say they don’t see a difference, it reminds me of those imbeciles who voted for Nader in 2000 saying there was no difference between Gore and Bush? Really? Would we be where we are now if Gore was president?
Seriously guys/gals. Get a grip. You’re born losers.
Uh huh, how come dems are going to lose the house then?
Because they’re miserable little punks, and they deserve it. I am so looking forward it.
: )
hastingpete?
You were the person, that heard Obama discuss the following in 2008
Hello, I am Obama and I am going to pass the Bob Dole Health Care plan. (bob dole is a republican)
Hello, I am Obama and I am going to make Unions Members pay a tax on their Health Care plans
Hello, I am Obama and I am going to make sure I kill the Drug Importation
(majority of Americans want Drug Importation)
Hello, I am Obama and I am going to support candidates like Blanche Lincoln, and make sure seats like this stay Republican (Halter had a chance to win, Blanche Lincoln has no chance)
Hello, I am Obama, I am going to talk about a bunch of non-sense for 2 years and ignore the job problem in the USA, which is the only issue in the USA. (in 2008 jobs was number 1 issue and today it is the number 1 issue)
Hello, I am Obama, I am going to make all the health insurance companies love me, I am going to force americans to buy insurance, and I am going to kill the public option ( majority of americans supported the public option)
hastingpete, we progressive missed this speech!
the teacher unions have already put Obama on ignore. (teacher union shuns Obama people)
the only thing Obama does not do like Bush, is talk like Bush.
by the way, how is the Obama reponse to BP OIL spill in the gulf going? can U say Bush’s Katrina. It is all over the net how OBAMA is helping BP cover up their Oil Spill disaster and kill the Gulf of Mexico.
hastingspete? name a democratic president in the modern era that would have let BP destroy the Gulf of Mexico. (where are the super tankers)
the military is preparing for war with Iran, I guess
coming this fall OBAMA cuts social security. (alan simpson let this slip out the two weeks ago)
It wasn’t their mission. It was a side effect of their policy choices. Of course, they were completely indifferent to the damage to the party.
The Dems deserve everything that’s coming to them.
Bullseye.
the public option was/is vaguely defined bullshit
meh – javascript was turned off, so it’s missing the “in response to”. this was actually in reply to someone upthread, and i can’t be arsed to find the comment #
So was/is Lynn Woolsey.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiyO9VBGhHA
No u.
I am a progressive and I broke with Obama in July 2008 over his vote on the FISA Amendments Act. I actually pointed out the need for a progressive party then because it was clear that Obama and the Democrats did not support a progressive agenda. It quickly became apparent that Obama was going to be a lot worse than even I had thought.
The corporatism of Obama and the Democrats, their failure not simply to effect “change we can believe in” but even to bother to fight for such change on top of the deteriorating economic fundamentals obvious in up close and personal ways to so many Americans have created a lot of populist anger. Progressives through their inaction and lack of organizing have let Teabaggers and Republicans (by default) be the beneficiaries of that anger. It should have been us. We have the ideas and solutions that work that can fix the problems that sparked that anger. Instead some got lost in the vast distraction and diversion that was the healthcare debate. The fix, a very different kind of fix, was in on the that from the start. Progressives trying to work with Democrats who had not intention of working with them was just an enormous waste of time. We should have been opposing them, educating the public about single payer, and castigating, not participating in, the Democratic sellout of healthcare.
As it is, many progressives will only support a progressive party if it is handed to them ready made and up and running. It is scarcely surprising that nothing has happened on this then.
If you Obamabots want to see why some of us don’t think Obama is the Second Coming, I invite you to look at this list which I keep.
http://obamascandalslist.blogspot.com/
I wonder how long it will take for the country to wake up from their coma this time, after the Repugs take the majority??? If the Repugs do succeed in doing so, then the United States of America deserves whatever “bead news” it has wrought for itself!!!!
Nobody said Pres. Obama was the “2nd Coming”….nobody except Conservatives!! and of course you Hugh….hahahaha!! I guess Right-wingers just can handle the fact that a President can get the things he said he would done. How about some whine with that cheese?? All you can get is more petty and post a link to a smear rag sheet!
Then you didn’t vote for Obama then…….that explains a lot.
Oy.
lucilee?
The illusion that there is huge difference between the current Dems and Republicans is what makes every thing about the current congress Hazy.
We talk like this is the Democratic Party of FDR, LBJ, JFK. etc. it is not.
The base of the DEM Party still considers itself followers of FDR, LBJ, JFK.
The Dems in congress consider themselves followers of Ronald Reagan.(or the corporation that own them, they are really all NasCar drivers, without the logo suits)
It is up to the base to elect congress people that follow FDR, LBJ, JFk, etc. and they are out there.
The current Dems in congress are just great liars and actors.
Obama is a super ACTOR.
Obama is for more war
Obama is against the public option
Obama is against a woman right to choose
Obama is for the individual mandate.
However, when you hear him speak, he talks like a progressive.
The Progressive Base has been lied to, not beaten.
The MSM tries to say thing like Fire Dog Lake, Bold Progressives are fringe groups, knowing they are the majority, because the Public Option was supported by 85% of real Dems.
A pox on both their houses, that’s how I feel about it. One group of corporatists are going to lose power, after which they’ll trade places with the corporatists on the other side.
I’ve been political since the sixties, I beat my head out against the bush wall, protesting, writing, calling representatives trying to affect a change.
When the dems won in November of 06, I felt an indescribable joy, the monsters were in check and they would pay for all their acts done with impunity since, well since forever, but, mainly the latest bunch.
Then impeachment was taken off the table, and the lowest hanging of the fruit went unpicked, then outrage after outrage, turned me from a strong democrat into I don’t give a fat rat’s ass about politics.
I’ve been on hiatus for the past couple of years, just taking it easy listening to music, staying stoned and minding my own,every so often I poke my head up to see what’s going on, and, I’ve got to say the way things are going it’s damn scary out there.
Of course the reptiles are going to regain control, myself and millions of others have had enough, we’re staying home come November, the dims made their bed let them lie in it.
In my opinion, we’ve either reached the tipping point, or are right next door to it, it’s all down hill from here boys. For myself I’m old enough that it doesn’t matter, I hate to think of the world my grandson is going to be living in.
I did vote for Obama, I regret to say. He hasn’t come close to living up to any of his promises. Since Congress does play a role and it’s not entirely up to him, I don’t blame Obama so much for that as I blame him for failing to even try to make an honest effort to fight for the promises he made. So I conclude he lied to us. I will not support him for reelection or the candidates from my state. They ran as progressives, but govern as conservatives. I hate to think of the Republicans back in power, but the Dems deserve it for not living up to their promises, as well. We’ll go from bad to worse, but bad isn’t real great as it is.
Here is the thing, Hugh. The criteria by which you (correctly, in my opinion) discounted Obama is that his actions did not reflect his rhetoric. If voters could learn anything from this past election and its consequences, it is that they should evaluate a candidate based on what s/he has done, not what s/he says s/he will do. Right, got it.
So… who are your Progressive Party candidates? Using our new evaluative criteria, unless a candidate has quantifiable progressive voting records, we should not vote for him or her. I certainly wouldn’t vote, because I can no longer trust campaign promises. Problem is, there aren’t a lot of progressive politicians in the U.S. right now. And those who have never run for office before but want to are too great a risk to support, again given our evaluative criteria.
So what do you do?
Thanks Rahm.
That’s part of the problem with getting Democrats on board with the fair districts amendments on the Florida ballot; they’re afraid they’ll lose their seats.
There should be a national constitutional amendment describing districting methods to be used by all of the states. I would suggest a non-partisan commission but we all know how those turn out. The districts should be as compact and simple as possible with little to no population differences. There are plenty of models that fit from Voronoiesque diagrams to homogeneous square/wedge districts to population centroids. If voters weren’t asleep at the wheel, they would be clamoring for this.
Well, we need to mention the possibility that if (when?) Obama and the democrats get shellacked 16 weeks from now, they will quietly breathe a deep sigh of relief at having the terrible burden of those big 2008 congressional margins, along with the expectations that came with them, lifted from their centrist butts.
For example, as Jane points out up above, Pelosi has used her “Madam Speaker” political savvy to move the forever republican wet dream of turning the SS lockbox over to the tender mercies of Wall Street, that much closer to fruition.
I can’t think of a single reason why she wouldn’t welcome a much thinner margin of democratic seats, as long as it didn’t disappear altogether, and send her back to the benches, so to speak.
Pete:
He met with the health insurance CEO’s about 14 months ago, and he gave up the public option. And signed on to mandating 30 million new customers for them. What good points there are about that trojan horse HCR won’t kick in until 2014.
In the house, he told Pelosi to kill a bill that some of the dems wanted to bring up, that would have stripped the HMO’s of their exemption from the anti-trust laws.
He told Reid to kill the Dorgan amendment that would have allowed re-importing of cheap foreign drugs. A huge cave to Big Pharma.
He sat on his bi-partisan ass for 16 months, instead of toughening the offshore drilling regs that he inherited from Bush. Or shutting it down altogether. In fact, he signed off on MORE of it, just three weeks before the platform exploded and sank. (Two days after the explosion, he said he wasn’t going to let that change his mind. I thought: “Would you like to bet on that, Mr. Centrist?” :o) )
From the gitgo of the misery in the gulf, he’s allowed the United States Coast Guard and NOAA, to function like a couple of trained parrots on BP’s behalf, practically reading press releases handed to them by BP’s flacks. Simply stated, practically every time BP low-balled the living shit out of the catastropne, they were basically backed up by those two government agencies.
Last week, the CG implemented a ruling by which journalists, or anyone else getting within 20 meters of an oil boom, can be fined $40,000 and sentenced to 1-5 years for their “trespass”. I hold Barack Obama responsible for this, not George Bush. Your mileage may vary.
I think that the main reason the wellhead can’t be plugged is that BP wants to salvage it and keep using it.
I think that Obama should send armed federal marshalls in an unannounced dawn raid to take over everything that BP is doing or not doing down there.
Then, he should bring in top NASA engineers (who know more about problem solving in a hostile environment than British Petroleum ever dreamed of…) and HE should take complete responsiblity for plugging the wellhead. I think it can be done, and if he could do it, he would look like Captain America; it would go a long way toward recouping some of the political mojo that he’s pissed down the drain.
Of course, the problem is, that he would also be re-establishing federal government domain over giant corporations, and I have a notion that this preznint’s bowels start to loosen when he thinks about doing that.
Needless to say, I am not as proud as you, of all of the good works he’s done on behalf of corporate amurka. I think he had a great opportunity to replace the Reagan/Bush financial crapshoot “oversight” with something that had real teeth. He do not do that.
Likewise, he had a gold-plated opportunity to tell GM, and the rest of the companies which build and/or sell autos in america, that they have 18 months, after which every car or small truck they sell here has to get 28 miles to a gallon, T & C, or they will have an environmental tax on them that won’t whoa. He didn’t do that, either.
I note that you don’t include Afghanistan on your “good job, Barack!” list,
which is wise, considering that the casualty rate for June was the highest for the entire 9 years of that misery, and considering that there is not the slightest reason for optimism that ratcheting up our troops numbers there is going to do any good.
Of Iraq, I also see no reason for optimism. It’s going on 4 months since the last “election”, and there is no sign of a viable government.
Joe Biden’s make-nice/don’t fight trip has been a total failure. When he got to the green zone, he was greeted by a short mortar barrage, and I will go out on a limb and say that IF Obama continues to draw down (and getting the real numbers is dicey and getting dicier) the days when ANY high-ranking american politician will want to visit Baghdad, are drawing to a close. And that, of course, is as it should, and will, be. There is not going to be a happy ending in either shitmire. It would have been well if he had used some of the political capital that has rotted away in the White House closet to speak that unpleasant truth to americans. I promise you; most of them already know it.
This list could be longer, but I’m tired of reciting the reasons why I think Obama is going to be the poster-boy for a failed president.
Let’s keep track of the number of dems running in the November elections who ask Obama to come and campaign for them. I don’t think he’ll be much in demand.
If, as I expect to happen, we get shellacked in November then, if we listen we might be able to hear an audible sigh of relief from Obama and the democrats, as the burden of those big congressional margins and the expectations that went with them, are largely lifted.
Finally, I hope you hang onto your achivement list for him; I think that we’re going to get hammered, and I’m right, he’s going to be pushing the yardstick for lamest lame duck ever. After that, there won’t be a lot that you can add to your list.