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Rep. Mike Rogers, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s incumbent-retention program, has pinpointed the nine most vulnerable GOP House members up for re-election and wants supporters to focus only on them. All represent districts that carried President Obama in 2008. Here’s a look at the endangered nine.
Charles Djou (HI-01) (his district’s Partisan Voter Index or PVI is Democratic, +11) and Joseph Cao (LA-02), PVI D+25, the fluke winners: Both won fluke victories in overwhelmingly Democratic districts. Djou managed to win with less than 40 percent of the vote due to Hawaii’s poorly designed special elections, where two candidates split the Democratic vote. Cao won because he was up against the scandal-ridden Democratic incumbent William Jefferson. It is very hard to imagine how either incumbent holds on in a general election this November against untainted Democratic opponents.
Lee Terry (NE-02) PVI Republican +6: Terry represents Omaha. He suffers mainly from the trend of urban areas voting more Democratic. In 2006, Terry beat Democrat Jim Esch 55-45 but in 2008, managed only a 52-48 margin over the same opponent. That year, Obama managed to beat John McCain in the district by a very slim margin. This was mainly due to Obama’s campaign focusing heavily on the district, since Nebraska is one of only two states that can split its Electoral College vote. Esch is making his third attempt to unseat Terry this year.
Dan Lungren (CA-03) PVI R+6: In 2008, Lungren won the district 50-44. Lungren will be facing Democrat Ami Bera, a doctor and prolific fundraiser with nearly $1 million cash on hand.
Mary Bono Mack (CA-45) PVI R+3: Last election, Mack breezed to a 58-42 victory. This time, she’s up against a top recruit, Steve Pougnet, the openly gay mayor of Palm Springs. The Democratic challenger has national support and more than half a million of cash on hand.
Pat Tiberi (OH-12) PVI D+1: Tiberi has won his last several races by double-digit margins but will face Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Franklin County makes up a significant part of the 12th district’s population. Update: Brooks has just been endorsed by EMILY’s List.
Charlie Dent (PA-15) PVI D+2: PA-15 and PA-06 are two of the few districts that both John Kerry and Obama won, yet continue to have Republican representation. Democrats are hoping to rectify that. They’ve recruited Bethlehem mayor John Callahan to take on Dent. Callahan has already distinguished himself as a great fundraiser.
Jim Gerlach (PA-06) PVI D+4: PA-06 is a highly competitive Democratic-leaning district where Gerlach has held on since 2002 in a series of very close races. His Democratic opponent is Dr. Manan Trivedi, a veteran of the Iraq war.
Dave Reichert (WA-08) PVI D+3: Reichert has taken pains to stake himself out as a moderate Republican in his Democratic-leaning district. He did some real damage to that image when an audiotape of him meeting with local Republicans was leaked. Reichert implied his support for environmental issues was not genuine, simply part of a cynical strategy to keep environmental groups from backing his opponents. He will face Suzan DelBene in November.
All the incumbents are currently running in districts that President Obama won in 2008. That is important, given that the most recent poll for NPR shows Obama’s approval rating is currently much higher in swing districts held by Republicans than in swing districts held by Democrats.
The two “fluke” incumbents are likely to fall to Democrats, but the other seven could go either way. If the mood in November is anti-Democratic, these GOP incumbents should be in good shape. If, instead, anti-incumbent and anti-Washington anger defines Election Day, Democrats may grab these seats and help offset inevitable losses elsewhere.
21 Comments
And now we know why Cao went and made a remark that, were he a Democrat, would have got him hounded out of office by the DC Tone Trolls, with David Broder and Chris Matthews leading the way.
That was pretty funny what he said (i.e. in Asian cultures, BP execs wouldn’t resign they’d commit hari kari). Of course he was kidding, Seppuku a Japanese custom, not an “Asian” one, but it was a good line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seppuku
Cao will be OK… he’ll lose re-election, then Obama will appoint him to a federal judgeship and all will be right in the forest. :o)
Damn. My Republican POS rep isn’t in the list.
I am elated to see that Lungren is beatable. I worked on Dr. Dursten’s campaign against him the last two elections. Dr. Dursten did a great job. I love it.
Did I mentioned I don’t like Lungren?
Oh yeah, I just sitting on pins and needles wondering what’s going to happen in November. I mean, what’s more exciting than finding out which whores are going to dick us over for the next few years?
To bad Mike Rogers isn’t on the list himself. A real d bag. Republicans carved out a very safe district for him, the former headquarters of the Michigan KKK.
BP Chairman – “We care about the small people.”
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/06/bp-chairman-oil/1
While I wouldn’t say I’m excited, it is something I do want to keep an eye on.
To get Lungren – I could almost die happy.
Wouldn’t mind ditching Mary Bono Mack,too. Waste of space.
Republicans want us to give up and not care — makes it easier for them to fill Congress with total tools. Besides, the GOP/Media meme is that Obama’s too liberal, which is why they say the Dems are in trouble — any bit of truth we have to counter that meme helps shove the Overton Windows back where they belong.
I have to say that not as many Ds are going to lose in the midterms as I would like. They’ll be even cockier after November.
Scarecrow is upstairs!
Oil Execs Say They’re Helpless; Oil State Reps Say It Doesn’t Matter
I don’t care what they call themselves on my own recognizance. What the republicans or democrats want isn’t a consideration. I judge them by their actions, what else would I do?
I need the waaaaaaaaahmbulance bc my pos Republic goon rep ain’t on the list, either, but that’s no surprise bc the Dem challenger is a giant LOSER (sigh). CA-50. Cretin “Surfer” Brian Bilbray (R) v. loser Francine Busby (3rd time at bat and has yet to run anything close to a good campaign, and not for lack of folks like me trying in the past but not anymore… sigh).
Heh… ain’t that the truth?!
Josh Mull is upstairs!
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GO TEAM! Go Democraps!
****pukes****
They are going to be spending big time to hold Michele Backmann’s seat in Minnesota’s 6th. State Senator (and DFL 6th District Nominee) Tarryl Clark’s primary opponent dropped out last week, so no primary, just a clean shot at November. It is a conservative district, but Clark has won a number of campaigns both for State Senate and County Commission there, and I detect growing discontent with Backmann’s Celeb Strategy in the National Media.
The possible loss of nine GOP seats coincides nicely with the recent (this week, I think) analysis by NPR.
They conclude that roughly 70 House seats have a good chance of changing hands. 10 of those seats are held by Republicans, 60 seats are currently held by Democrats.