The Senate matchup between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand Paul is very close, with a slight advantage for Paul. A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll has Paul at 44 percent and Conway at 41 percent, with a four percent margin of error.

Looking at the internals, it seems Paul has suffered from his statements criticizing the Civil Rights Act.

Paul’s favorabilities are down among Independents — from 62-16 to 58-20, and among Democrats — from 37-45 to 29-57. Lucky for him, railing against the Civil Rights Act plays to his base. Among Republicans, Rand is now up to 79-9, from 76-10.

Paul lost more ground than he gained. This close race appears winnable for Democrats, if Conway can paint Paul as far outside the mainstream. In Kentucky, Democrats have one of their best hopes to win a Senate seat currently held by a Republican.