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In November, Californians will vote on a ballot measure to legalize, regulate and tax cannabis. A new Public Policy Institute of California (PDF) poll shows a very small plurality supports the measure. Forty-nine percent of likely voters favor legalizing cannabis while 48 percent oppose it.
Not surprisingly, younger voters and San Francisco Bay-area residents are more likely to support the measure. There’s a strong gender divide, with 54 percent of men favoring legalization and only 42 percent of women agreeing. Latinos have high opposition to legalization, with 62 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor.
The poll finds that among all adults, support for legalization is actually lower, with only 48 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed (sampling error is between two and three percent). This seems improbable, given that older Americans are more likely to turn out in midterm elections, and senior citizens are the group most strongly in favor of keeping marijuana criminalized.
Compared with earlier polls, the PPIC survey shows dramatically lower support for legalizing cannabis among all adults. In April, a SurveyUSA poll of California adults found 56 percent favoring, 42 percent opposing. A CBS News poll, also from April, showed that 55 percent of adults from Western states favor legalization, while only 41 percent oppose it. A Field Poll from April 2009 found that 56 percent of registered voters (PDF) in California favored legalization and taxation of marijuana for recreational use.
PPIC has a very strong track record in California, but there seems to be something counter-intuitive about the results when contrasting all likely voters with all adults. That part has the feeling of being an outlier.
This is the worst poll for cannabis legalization in California so far, but it still shows that likely voters slightly favor it. With a divided electorate, the ballot initiative could go either way in November. Its fate will depend heavily on the quality of the public outreach, framing and get-out-the-vote efforts from both sides.
44 Comments
Get out the vote is going to be key.
Which slogan won the Pot Contest? I can’t believe a pot post doesn’t mention that.
I’m with you. I thought that was going to be announced Wednesday?
Thanks, Jon. This means we must get the Dems out to vote. And the young.
I don’t know if a likely voter filter is a good one to use in this case. I know many people who wouldn’t bother to vote for somebody who SAYS that he or she wants to legalize pot but would register and vote in a heartbeat if it was up for referendum.
“toke the vote”
What good will a CA ballot measure do?
Didn’t they have one called Prop 8 that passed by 60%, majority rule indeed.
Wonder at the why of “Latinos have high opposition to legalization, with 62 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor.”
I’m sick of senior citizens holding America back because they’re too ossified and prejudiced to get out of the way. If you have a 10% chance of dying before New Year’s Day, you shouldn’t get to vote on the rights of the rest of us. “Bah, I think mari-joo-wanna is bad!” Oh, yeah? Well, you thought it was a bad idea that women started working, too, you worthless fossil.
Any theories regarding the high Latino opposition? Is it RC inspired? If we could increase support in that community for legalization it would put us way over the top.
No clue is this trend confirmed by other polling?
Hmm a theory Phone polls would be answered by Mexican Moms who stay home and they tend to have more kids.
Moms tend to be anti drug no matter what they did when they were single.
That jumped out at me, too. I’ve not seen any type of trend in California for Latinos to be heavily conservative. This seems counter-intuitive to what I would’ve thought. I’d be interested in seeing followup questions to the “Yes” or “No” responses, if there were any.
California Actual Voters Approve Prop 8.
What’s popular vs. what’s right.
Not always the same thing.
No idea. Maybe it would be a good idea to promote the notion that legalization would lower gang revenue. Not suggesting that pot is the only gang revenue stream but legalization would put a dent in their budgets, for awhile at least.
ditto re the Latinos – a good place to start may be how counter-intuitive the concept of legalization is to putting cartels out of business.
Also, too, happy to see others asking about our pot campaign – i thought you all had a secret place you went off to to toke, chat, and admire the new roll-out.
Also perhaps the example that alcohol being legal but restricted actually makes it harder for teens to purchase. Pot prohibition means transactions take place clandestinely, with no controls.
Calitics has a post on some pro-side internal polling:
http://www.calitics.com/diary/11716/voters-favor-legalized-regulated-and-taxed-marijuana
Interesting side note – this could be a driver for GOTV among young/new/independent/Dem voters. “So while Jerry Brown may not be embracing the measure, you can be sure he’s glad it is on the ballot.”
No we are going to see a lot more polls on the topic to get a good idea.
I’m a ‘senior citizen’ who be voting for legalization after having smoked pot almost daily for 40 years so quit making bad generalizations please.
Agreed
They tend to be conservo-churchy, although that’s selective. When I worked in family support, I got a lot of young ladies whose ‘religion’ barred birth control and abortion, but got ignored on the topic of pre-marital sex. Surprise.
I think the same thing its funny how when there is unexpected big news on a dead morning thread everyone jumps in i think FDL gives out Alarm clocks that ring when there is big news.
Either that or an I phone app.
Didn’t you mean the vote is DREADLOCKED? Man I’m killin myself here.
we don’t have alarm clocks but not a bad idea. We do have twitter feeds
This place is full of people who are the thin part of every Bell Curve :)
You’re a dear for calling me thin, even though I know you’re lying. :)
Given how I am in the morning alarm clocks or my I pod blasting full blast are the only things that might get me up.
Cum On Feel The Noize by Quiet Riot might be a good way to start a wake me up in the morning ipod selection
http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Cum-On-Feel-The-Noize-lyrics-Quiet-Riot/E3D4E29B6C82098248256D75002F6465
Yes definitely lots of Heavy Metal
Your only fat on content, snark and the Shiny:)
My dad will be 87 this summer. He commented the other day that he is PO’d that we didn’t get single-payer out of HCR. From previous conversations, I’m pretty confident he will be voting yes on the marijuana initiative. He married my mom in 1950, other than a couple years home in the early 60s when the kids were small, she worked her entire life until she was 70. His cousin got married during college, and when she graduated her hubby said she should stay home instead of having a nursing career, so she divorced him – and that was in Colorado, in the 1940s.
Not sure what might have changed, but a friend did an informal poll in 1996, and found older voters more likely to approve of medical MJ – she theorized they had more acquaintances with issues for which it would be beneficial. THAT was in Modesto, one of the redder regions of CA.
Redrum? Oh no, that’s The Shining.
3 pm, time to sneeze the day. See ya later, Things.
If the tx in your name stands for Texas, or even if it doesn’t, your comment is pedantic and somewhat patronizing. Certainly not helpful to pushing this dialogue forward. Thank you.
So, go work to get out the younger vote. Right?
Ha! Cute and clever comment, but, I’d don’t think so. Totally no one of the many people I have smoked with for many years have dread locks. It’s one of those over generalized comments that smacks of some underlying misconceptions.
Three questions:
1) Would I want my child to go to prison if he or she tried a little marijuana?
2) Am I ready for the “October Surprise” from the Drug War side?
3) How do I register to vote? (Those registering by May 24 2010 can vote in the Primary Elections on June 8. Those registering by October 18 can vote in the November 2 General Election.)
Citizens of California can go online and register to vote by completing an online form and mailing it to the address on the form. The form is available at
h t t p s : / / w w w .sos.ca.gov/nvrc/fedform/
Register today if you want to vote in November. The Drug Warriors will be pushing their people to the polls; don’t let them destroy another generation. Get registered, get your friends registered, and VOTE.
thank you Reggie White – wth Things ??
Kind of like the old myth from the military days (mine at least) that all men who smoked grass parted their hair down the middle.
Dude, a lot of the folks I smoked with had pony tails. No part. :)
Yeah, but in the military, we didn’t have too many folks with ponytails so the supposed “tell” was the middle part (and those of us who parted what hair we did have on the side were alright)
Of course, one of my nicknames in those days was “Charred” and I had a roommate who didn’t smoke anything but parted his hair down the middle.
A lot of the folks in the military power chain of command were and are basically clueless
Personally, I’m opposed to ponies smoking, or smoking ponies, for that matter.
Just a drive-by, please carry on.
Maybe they seek to protect one of the few successful industries in Mexico that has not been undermined by NAFTA.
What seems amazing is that most of the people do not understand the facts and that like the banking industry the cartel industry is trying to poison the water.
To legalize it would mean regulating it and taxing it. The cartels would like to suggest that everyone would turn to other drugs and got their big profits. The reality is that it is and alway will be available at high prices and not regulated or taxed. The other issue is young adults who might get it from adult friends already do or they take medication that is worse from their parents cabinet and get sicker & die.
What does surprise me is that older adults don’t support the effort, since they were part of the 60′s & 70′s who know all about it. There are no boogymen here as was promoted in the past.
The truth is more known now then before and marijuana is NOT an addictive drug.
I had to put up with that “part down the middle” B/S when I was in the Navy. I would love to know what “genius” got paid to make up that fairy tale.