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The biggest day on the primary calendar all year takes place tomorrow, with elections in four states and some of the most interesting storylines of the 2010 campaign. Activists on the left and right have battles against the establishment which will be decided tomorrow, and Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to declare victories which they will spin into a narrative about November. Here’s a guide to the election:
• Pennsylvania: The biggest story here is the Democratic primary for Senate. For months, Joe Sestak couldn’t gain any traction against party-switcher Arlen Specter, but suddenly in the last month, he surged in the polls, and now the race is seen as a dead heat, with enough undecideds to swing the race in one direction or the other. The question is whether Specter’s establishment support, with the DNC’s campaign organization and President Obama himself working on his behalf, will juice turnout enough to drag him over the finish line, or whether Sestak will get the bulk of the undecideds in a lower-turnout race and ride his current momentum. Specter’s experience argument, that his 30 years in the Senate represents a better deal for Pennsylvanians, may resonate as well. Chris Bowers predicts a Sestak victory:
None of those leads make Sestak anywhere close to a sure thing. However, Specter is only competitive in this primary due to his ongoing advantage in name ID, an advantage which averages 20% across five of these six polls (excluding F & M). That means Specter still has a big advantage among low information voters (who have still never heard of Sestak), and as such will need high Democratic turnout to win (since these low-information voters are less likely to vote). With Democratic turnout sharply down in primaries do far this year, that ain’t too bloody likely.
I expect Sestak to win as this point, and to become the first Democrat to defeat an incumbent backed by Obama in a primary.
Specter’s erratic behavior in the final days, including trying different messages on different regions of the state and claiming that his party switch was a matter of principle because he could easily have won a Republican primary (he admitted the switch after READING POLLS SHOWING HIM LOSING such a primary), have led insiders to despair about his chances. Bob Schieffer told local Philly news that the White House is bracing for a Specter defeat. But I think it’s a little quick to anoint Sestak the winner; this is a very tight race.
There are contested primaries on both sides for Governor as well, with Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett and Democratic Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato the favorites.
• PA-12: The special election to replace John Murtha coincides with the statewide primary, and because of the Sestak-Specter race this has the possibility of drawing more Democrats to the polls. However, right now the race is a pure toss-up between Murtha staffer Mark Critz and businessman Tim Burns. Both party committees have poured money into the race, but the circumstances around it slightly favor Critz. In addition to the heavier attention on the Democratic primary, Burns has a tough primary of his own, against 2008 nominee Bill Russell, while Critz faces token opposition. It’s entirely possible that Burns wins the special election and loses the primay, making him an instant lame duck.
• Arkansas: Bill Halter has been chasing Blanche Lincoln ever since he announced his campaign just a couple months ago. Halter received strong support from the netroots and the labor movement. The most likely scenario at this point looks to be a runoff; with right-wing Democrat DC Morrison also in the race (and getting residual support from the negative primary tactics of both the other candidates), it’s possible that neither Lincoln nor Halter will get the 50% + 1 needed to avoid a second round under Arkansas law. That runoff would take place on June 8. Lincoln positions herself as in the sensible center, disliked by the left and right, but in a potential second-round matchup it would be just her and Halter, and her fealty to wealthy and corporate interests would be on full display in an election likely to feature low turnout.
Because of Rep. John Boozman running for the Senate seat on the Republican side (in a crowded field he also may not be able to avoid a runoff), and retirements from Reps. Vic Snyder and Marion Berry, three of the four House seats in the state are open, with many candidates seeking the seat in primaries.
• Kentucky: Both the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries have interesting storylines. Rand Paul has tracked the anti-establishment wave in the GOP and is expected to win big over Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who was endorsed by Mitch McConnell and most of the bigwigs in the Kentucky Republican Party. Among Democrats, ConservaDem Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo has led the more mainstream liberal Attorney General Jack Conway through most of the year, but Conway has closed well and now it’s a dead heat. A Conway-Paul matchup would offer a real alternative in Kentucky, and polls have shown that race to be competitive.
• Oregon: There’s not quite as much drama in Oregon, where Ron Wyden is expected to cruise to re-election. The Governor’s race features former chief executive John Kitzhaber expected to win the Democratic primary, and former NBA journeyman and terrible free throw shooter Chris Dudley expected to win on the Republican side.
Beyond the marquee races, there are plenty of other primary scenarios. Steve Singiser has you covered on those. He also mentions that the Hawaii special election for the 1st Congressional district, where Republican Charles Djou could benefit from a split Democratic vote in the unusual first-past-the-post, no-primary election and pick up a blue seat, will be completed on Saturday.
23 Comments
Thanks for the details on each of these races. Tomorrow night should be very interesting.
I was depressed by a brief watching of MSNBC discussing the meaning of a possible Specter loss. “Will Dem primary voters be able to vote for Specter after decades of opposing him?”
Aaaargh!
How about, “will Dem primary voters want to hold their noses and vote for Specter, a guy who flips back and forth so often he obviously has no principles of his own? Will they vote for a man who can’t even remember when talking to Democratic county organizations that they are not Republicans? Will they vote for a man who is not a Democrat?
Or will they vote for a man who has a stellar record in the military and Congress of supporint Dem positions, who understands the need for health care reform(real reform)?”
And, whaddya think: If Sestak wins, what chance is there the WH will read the actual lesson instead of the fake lesson, as articulated by the conventional media?
Understatement of the Day award.
All this has gotten a lot of mainstream coverage….several morning reports, some discussing what it will say about the Pres. but most focus on
how angry voters are…..wonder who is paying attention to that? And Barbour claiming it’s all good for this resurgence of the Rs….
The WH has proven repeatedly that learning is not one of their strong points. If they lose, they obviously didn’t go far enough right.
Haley is havin’ his high thread count sheet and hood starched and pressed as we speak.
From a distance it would seem that PA has always been incredibly diverse. Not just politically but culturally and economically so the “race” between the two extremes, Sestak and Sphincter being close comes as no surprise to this distant observer. However that being said, Sestak who is obviously less well entrenched in DC shenanigans than his opponent, surely should have a leg up in this virulently anti-government time in which we find ourselves. Well that is the way I see it and can only hope for a good result. Unfortunately my record of correct prognostications is abysmal.
Standard neoliberal response when their shit doesn’t work. Next thing we know Axelrod and Emanuel will be addressing Tea Party rallies.
Watch Specter pull a “Magic Ballot” from his sleeve. Dude is slippery as hell. Go Sestak!
Arlen no longer deserves to be a Senator – if he ever did. He is not to be trusted by anyone. He’s old now and is beginning to look rather silly in the things he says. So, yes, Go Sestak.
Notice how many of these dudes are in their late 70s and running again?
They don’t want to give up that power and they have no other life. Most of them haven’t had any sort of job in at least 50 years. I also think it is for spite – just to keep anyone else from having their position.
Why is the coverage of the DC protests against the banks not getting more coverage on FDL? There is a growing movement on the streets yet one would be hard pressed to find evidence on the Lake. Really quite ironic given the criticisms of the MSM in covering genuine leftist populist protest.
Maybe there should be some sort of counseling for elected public servants to dissuade them from clinging to their job for no good reason. Make it mandatory after they’ve served a certain number of terms.
Blue Texan’s regularly scheduled post is now available: When Did The Atlantic Morph into RedState?
And watch to see how many votes Rendell places on the voting machines for Specter in Philly and Pittsburgh. That’s what will decide this primary. Can Sestak turn out enough angry Democrats to compensate for the fraud?
Specter is actually 80.
In Kentucky, Conway is more reformist/good government, but not actually progressive. Mongiardo represents the traditional, i.e. corrupt Democratic party dominated by Big Coal.
None of our folks are on the scene?
I’m beginning to wonder if there are any real “progressives” willing to run. For anything.
My thoughts as well. Who knows what type of bullshit electronic vote changing machine is being used in PA? We need to return to nationwide paper ballots.
Here’s a question 4 ya….when that gay republican escort “won” Kennedy’s Senate seat, what were the results of the exit polls??
Trick question, there were no exit polls. Exit polls had long been known worldwide as an excellent way to verify anelection’s legitimacy. We Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia et al started rigging elections they had a problem….exit polls were clearly showing signs of their blatant theft.
What to to? Slowly but effectively kill off the exit poll.
Bonkers……”magic ballot” freakin hilarious on multiple levels, nice one
All respect to Chris Bowers, but:
Um, no. That would be Ned Lamont, who defeated Obama-backed then-Democratic incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman in August 2006.
Why not put a post up at Seminal yourself? If you’re following these demonstrations, including the one yesterday at bank lobbyists’ lovely Chevy Chase homes, you really owe it to your fellow FDLers to promote the news about them.
Front-pagers can’t be everywhere; we rely on readers and Seminal diarists to help with the focus.
Thanks.
I wonder, if Sestak wins, will Specter run as an independent? This is not novel for duechbag candidates that Obama backs.