On Tuesday, May 18, there are three highly contested Democratic primaries for US Senate seats: Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas. In each race, the more left-leaning Democratic candidate is currently polling as the most electable.
In Kentucky, Jack Conway, not a raging progressive but at least a supporter of much of the Democratic platform leads his ultra-conservative primary opponent, Dan Mongiardo. According to recent PPP and DailyKos/Research 2000 polls, Conway is polling better against likely Republican nominee Rand Paul than does Mongiardo.
PPP (May 1-2)
Paul 42%- Mongiardo 38%
Paul 41% – Conway 40%
DailyKos/Reseach 2000 (May 10-12)
Paul 43% – Mongiardo 38%
Paul 42% – Conway 39%
In Pennsylvania, Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-7) is challenging long-term Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter. In head-to-head matchups against Republican Pat Toomey, Sestak is narrowly out-performing Specter.
Quinnipiac (May 4-10)
Toomey 47% – Specter 40%
Toomey 42% – Sestak 40%
Rasmussen (May 6)
Toomey 50% – Specter 38%
Toomey 42% – Sestak 40%
The pattern continues in Arkansas where Bill Halter is challenging conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln. Rep. John Boozman has a commanding lead in the Republican primary field and is the likely GOP nominee. Against Boozman, Halter is polling slightly better than Lincoln.
DailyKos/Reseach 2000 (May 10-12)
Boozman 54% – Lincoln 40%
Boozman 50% – Halter 41%
In each of the three primaries, the more progressive candidate currently has en edge. This might be an anti-incumbent effect against Specter and Lincoln, but does not explain Conway in Kentucky. The strategy of running right-leaning candidates in a tough year for Democrats just does not translate into being more electable.
It looks as if, given the choice between a real Republican or a Republican-lite fake, many voters will just choose the real thing.



16 Comments
Rahm and his DLC bankers are not going to like this kind of talk! Prepare for some disdainful references to “extremist bloggers” and “fringe elements” to discourage anyone from looking at the actual poll results…
Just like on the Ed Show last night, after Chuck Todd laid out Sestak’s comparative November strength, they brought out Party hack Fattah to say how Specter was the stronger candidate! The MSM spin factory could care less what the actual voters are saying.
There are some who believe reality is made not out there existing.
Our elections are futile. Wall St. is in total control of this country. They call all the shots. Our political parties are mere window dressing to keep the charade going for the masses in denial.
Does it really matter if we get “real” Democrats anymore? There is no such thing anymore, once they get elected for sure.
Corporations own them all, some sooner than later. The results are always the same. Congress gives them unfettered access to rule us and rob us while they fatten their campaign coffers.
Keep on playing their game expecting things to change and get dissed again.
I’ve reached the point of eyes glazed over at a headline about upcoming elections.
“Real Liberal Democrats” can easily be shortened to “Real Democrats.”
Goldman Sachs runs the U.S. Really. But so did the mob at one point. We need a strong Government with a strong backbone to remind Goldman who’s really in charge and just how fast laws can be created and enacted that make them wish they never robbed the country blind. All it takes is one person to slip past the sentries to spark a revolution. I can’t figure out why tea party protesters aren’t standing outside of Goldman every single day, instead of attending some random town hall event.
What?!? The Rahm Emanuel strategy of pretending to be Republican doesn’t work? The dickens you say!
That’s because in their minds the voters are irrelevant. WE don’t get invited to the DC parties after all so WE don’t know what’s good for the country and for ourselves. It’s only the DC village insiders who know what we need. I’m surprised none in the media have begun a campaign to prevent all of us from voting yet.
It was ever thus. Voters have always gravitated to the real over the pretend, and will continue to do so.
If I’m reading you correctly, I entirely disagree. You’re giving credit to an electorate that elected Reagan twice and a Bush three times.
W Bush was only elected President once and there’s good evidence that the time he won legitimately was not be as large a margin as was originally stated. Bush lost Florida the first time, though I admit that enough people voted for him to make the election close enough to steal.
“Conservative Democrat” is an oxymoron–like “clean coal.”
Certainly seems to be the case considering the U.S. voters already went all in with Pelosi-Reid-Obama leadership. So the U.S. people do actually want real left liberals running the country.
“The Rahm Emanuel strategy of pretending to be
Republicandemocrats doesn’t work?”It’s clear that what the serf voters want is irrelevant. No matter who gets in, the corporations are in charge.
As far as it goes, *most* Democratic voters are still more or less left or progressive in their outlook and what they want to have happen in govt. The slow push to the right by our current crop of ALL Dems at the federal level has nothing to do with fear of the GOP or bipartisanship or appeasing conservative voters or whatever other hogwash is out there.
Dems have trended ever more conservative (to the point where Arlen Specter thinks he’s a “Democrat” fer gawd’s sake) bc they are being paid off by the coporations to legislate that way. The end.
I agree with a prior post. It doesn’t matter much who is voted in (other than a pyrrhic victory) bc the corporations will just step in, cross their palms with silver and very clearly explain who’s in charge and how that new legislator is going to vote and behave. And so… on it goes…
Is Sestak a “real, liberal Democrat”? Then again, who is?
Jon, I generally like your work but this time I suspect you are making a claim that is dubious. Most of the polls you present above show the three pairs of primary candidates running very close versus their GOP opponents – in fact, the biggest margin is two points. These slight differences would be considered within the margin of error by most people. I think, at best, one could say these polls show both the Dem candidates perform about the same against their GOP opponents.
Most of us would love to see that the progressive candidates are doing better in the general, but these polls don’t present evidence of that. OTOH, primary polling is notoriously inaccurate and polling for the general just before the primary could be described as dubious methodology. Just sayin’.