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Fifty-six percent of adults living in the state think California should legalize the use of marijuana, while only 42% oppose, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. The level of support is basically unchanged from last year, when a Field Research poll found that 56% of registered voters in California supported legalizing and taxing marijuana for recreational use. And the poll is consistent with a recent CBS News poll showing that 55% of adults in “western” states support legalization, with only 41% opposed. California voters will be voting on a ballot initiative that would legalize, regulate, and tax cannabis. Currently, a strong majority of adults support the general idea, so it seems its fate will rest on the turnout demographics.
As would be expected, there is a huge generational divide on the issue. Three-quarters of adults under 35 support legalization, but 54% of those over 65 oppose the idea. Since older Americans are traditionally likely to turnout in much higher numbers than young people, this generational divide could spell trouble for the measure, even though support for legalization polls 14 points ahead.
Among the other findings from the poll is that there is a huge gender divide. Men support legalization by 65%, while only 46% women do. African Americans are the ethnic group that most thinks marijuana should be legalized (67%-29%), while Hispanics are the only ethnic group where a majority does not support legalization (45%-53%).
Interestingly, independents are the political group that most strongly thinks marijuana should be legalized–62% of independents favor legalization, while only 59% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans feel the same way. There appears to be a huge divide in support between self-identified liberals and Democrats–an overwhelming majority of liberals, 77%, supports legalization.
For the ballot measure to win, large numbers of young men are going to need to vote in November to offset the disproportionately high turnout from senior citizens. Young men are not a demographic known for their reliable voting patterns, but maybe the possibility of actually legalizing marijuana will get them to the polls in numbers that no politician ever could.
24 Comments
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I’m a senior citizen and I’ll be voting legalize Mary Jane.
me, too. It needs to be done.
I am very surprised by the Hispanic polling. I wonder what is the reason for their low support? I guess my suggestion of “Su Voto, Su Mota” may not play so well as a slogan.
am wondering if Rock The Vote and similar orgs will be willing to get in on this – as I think a lot of likely orgs are gonna run and hide
‘cuse the broad brush, but they are a law and order bunch
If Obama smoked lots of weed when he was a young-un, why won’t he let the rest of us have some fun once in a while? Plus, hemp–if legalized–can easily replace plastics.
Food for thought on this Earth Day!
Is this definitely going to be on the ballot?
Heh. Just wait until the plastics lobby weighs in against that.
That does not fly with me. I want more info, but thanks for giving it a shot.
My feeling has always been that reefer AND hemp would put some PHARMA and chemical companies out of bidness. That’s why Obummer was so dismissive of legalization. He’s the biggest corporate whore out there!
Agree on O. I’m reading Paul Street’s book on him, which got him spot on. It’s a depressing read, and the weather is great, so it’s taking me a long time to finish it.
In Ca it is and I think in some other states.
Are the Mormons going to gear up their awesome advertising efforts against it?
so far they have been quiet. They had some really bad publicity after Prop. 8 and may stay out of this one.
Thanks. Audio book disc loaded, so I’m off again.
Yes, the initiative has qualified for the November ballot in CA.
Get Out the Vote is going to be the critical part of passing this.
FDL organizing can win this. And FDL has a good history with grassroots organizing.
Prop 215 was written by grassroots activists – Dennis Peron in particular. Once it qualified a lot of money came in (Soros (DPF,OSI), Lewis (Progressive Insurance), Sperling (University of Phoenix), Zimmer (Men’s Warehouse)) to get it passed (this is a good thing). That money hired a professional organization (Dave Fratello, Bill Zimmerman, et al), that managed the campaign effectively.
Prop 215′s success at the polls inspired further campaigns for medical cannabis. These campaigns did not seek grassroots input on proposition language, and at times actively worked to produce weaker protections “because it can pass” against the objections of grassroots activists. I’d hate to see this happen again. (There is documentation on all this from a mailing list archive – drctalk – in particular the objections to Oregon and Colorado medical cannabis campaigns had strong push back against the language put on the ballot by the professionals).
Demographics and polling from 1996 CA general election should help guide GoTV targeting for 2010.
Prop 215 won with 55% in favor. Pre-election polling did not show Prop 215 with a majority before reading the ballot title/summary (see Field Poll, page 6).
CA general election results from 1996 are here. This data should be helpful in identifying demographics unfavorable to legalization. In those counties GoTV should be targeted with a very fine grain, eg. under 45 years old self identified liberal voters.
History – Amorphia (became CA NORML) qualified Prop 19 for the 1972 general election. It lost 33% – 66%
Another bit of outreach – the modern day Voluntary Committee of Lawyers should be good for providing rhetorical support. I’d think they may be good at reaching the older demographics and relating crime to prohibition. Their original incarnation was one of the drivers of the 21st Amendment.
I no longer trust pre-election trends – at least in my state of CA. We were strongly pushing an initiative for the repeal of our brutal and costly Three Strikes Law. Polls showed Californians were disgusted with it too. But then a bunch of scare ads (confusing the issues) and strong anti-ads from the Gov and others – and bingo. Hundreds of minor league, non-violent perps continue Life without Parole, at $44K per year.
More positive: I moderate a Current Affairs Discussion Group with seniors – they are all TOTALLY for legalization. And they vote.
The Mormons have never geared up for anything other than opposing gay marriage and ERA. They aren’t saying anything about marijuana that I have heard in my circles and I don’t expect they will. Mormons individually would vote against, though.
How liberal is your Current Affairs discussion group? I’m thinking that possibly you’re seeing a subset of the senior demographic, after all 29% of those older than 65 support legalization on a nation wide basis. Your discussion group may be representative of that subset.
Glad to have their votes!