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Today, there was some good news for the country–and, by extension, elected Democrats. The job market saw serious growth with 162,000 new jobs added in March. If unemployment starts to head down, it should be a huge help for Democrats in November.
The American economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, while the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent.
While the numbers got a lift from the government’s hiring of 48,000 census workers, private employers added 123,000 jobs in the month.
The fact that just under a third of the new jobs created this month are temporary census workers is a bit of a damper on the news, but, even without them, last month’s job numbers are still a serious improvement.
While political reporting is often focused on tracking polls, fund-raising, and public scandals, the election is often decided by more important macro factors, like the health of the economy.
A new CNN poll shows that Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats with who the American people think would do a better job with the economy (48% Republican, 45% Democrats). It also has Republicans with a four-point edge on the generic ballot. These are bad numbers for Democrats, but if the economy starts to turn around, and unemployment starts to noticeably decline, don’t be surprised if Democrats polling numbers quickly rise. Jobs and the economy are by far the most important issues for most Americans right now. Barring some unforeseen event, the issue of jobs should play a dominant role in November.
While many people will be following the generic ballot tracking polls to try to determine how many seats Democrats are likely to lose in November, it is the monthly jobs report that might end up the best indicator. Something Democrats in Congress should keep in mind. Because, even as good as last month’s numbers were compared to the past three years, we will still need much stronger jobs growth if we really want to bring down unemployment.
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How many jobs does the country need to create each month just to keep up with population growth? I’m not sure, but it is around the number of new jobs created last month. Well, at least we are not headed into another month of deficit job creation. However, until the Obama Administration comes out with a real jobs program that warrants Government agencies to hire large numbers of people like FDR did, we will not see any headway towards surplus employment. So, I don’t see much chance that the Democrats will make inroads into their pathetic poll numbers between now and November. How could they be losing to Republicans right now? The Answer: they are putting forth essentially the same policies.
At 10% unemployment we’re looking at roughly 30 million unemployed American’s, right? I know that’s a sunny side figure because it doesn’t consider all the people who have simply given up, or the underemployed.
If we are, however, looking at the unemployment “figures” we’re talking about 30 million unemployed. So adding 123,000 jobs means roughly a 3.4% decrease in unemployment last month. At that pace it will take just shy of 3 years to fix this mess. I don’t think that’s fast enough to bridge the 4 point polling gap.
Sorry Dems, but you’re going to have to do better.
Great post Jon. Thank you.
It says all you need to know about the Democrats that took power last year, that a party like the Republicans – who have made pathological obstructionism and deliberate, overt pandering to nutbag extremists their only contribution to date – would have a 4% advantage over Democrats in general.
The Democrats deserve this fate, too, to have lost a huge popular mandate for broad reform only a year after taking power, by having been tools of the plutocracy and corporate interests. They had everything in the world going for them except their own corruption apparently.
As far as the jobs picture goes, Huffington Post has up some of the more interesting information than the sub-standard jobs gain boosted by a census skew. For example, personal bankruptcies went up. Long term unemployment went up. The financial services and information technology sectors shed jobs. The unemployment figure itself is still nearly 10% nationwide and won’t drop, despite the fact that the recession itself may have ended late last year. I wouldn’t hold my breath for any relief from the gloom of a terrible job market soon.
I think you need about 150,000 to keep up, so the 123,000(which is the real number, we don’t look at farm payroll for a reason, and census workers are an even more dramatic seasonal worker than farm payroll) is still negative territory.
The best indicator of how many seats the Democrats are going to lose is the amount of Republican policies Obama promotes and the Democratic congress passes.
I’ve never seen a Democrat like Obama who campaigned as such a progressive and served like someone who runs up to every GOP idea and just hugs it like a brother.
I can’t help but wonder if the jobs number were adjusted for population growth and the census bump if we didn’t actually lose jobs on the balance.
Actually, over 40% of the population is under twenty (27.6%) or over sixty-five (12.6%) according to Wiki. I don’t know what percentage of those are looking for jobs, but 30 million are not unemployed.
Anyone listen to Democracy Now yesterday and Bill Clinton talking about how he takes responsibility for how his policies affected Haiti? Found it amusing that in the resulting conversation on the matter between Amy Goodman and the reporter he said he didn’t believe he alligator tears on Haiti for a second.
Just sorta thinking about how NAFTA, WTO and our continued outsourcing is affecting that unemployment number and what little is being done about it.
Kinda depressing.
Thanks for this post, Jon.
Is it the “unemployment figures” that influence voting, or whether folks actually have JOBS?
It doesn’t seem to me that folks who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and are looking around at their community and seeing no jobs are going to be influenced by predictions of a “rosy future” and “things looking up.”
Also, are these numbers consistent across the country, or concentrated in some areas, not others? For example, I don’t see how Detroit & Flint MI are ever going to come back?
The real clincher is the percentage of “jobs” due to census workers! Maybe they can run the census right through to November 2012.
BTW – just asking with these questions, not arguing. Again, great post.
Another great indicator is the “intensity” number for voters of either party. Self-identified Republican voters according to at least one news report I’ve read are apparently hugely energized to vote, with 80% or so saying that they will vote for sure this year. Contrast this with the (badly demoralized, alienated, divided) self-identified Democratic voters, who are at little over half that rate saying they are going to vote. Perhaps if Obama had bothered to actually deliver on any of his campaign promises – and the health insurance corporation giveaway law doesn’t count as any such delivery, he promised actual reform prioritizing the interests of the broad public, not corporate interests and plutocrats – then the Democrats wouldn’t be lagging the obnoxious and pointless Republicans in a poll.
I guess this is his “11 dimensional chess.” None of the Republicans can claim “those are our policies,” and the Democrats are too cowed and scared to criticize or run against them. [Which is what should be happening: these should be identified as "Republican policies" and the Dems should be criticizing them to the hilt.]
The real test is how long it’s going to take for these things to crash and burn, so the results can be laid at the Democrats feet. Based on the health care bill, it looks like they’re counting on that not happening until 2014.
Kind of hostile to attack Clinton for admitting his mistakes, isn’t it? Did he steal your wallet or something?
Yeah, I wonder when we’re going to see similar Clinton crocodile tears on NAFTA?
I get 0.41 percent decrease. 123K / 30M = 0.0041
In his disdain for us “fucking re****s,” Rahm didn’t seem to calculate that we’re the most energized portion of the “base,” not just voting, but doing the donating, canvassing, phone banking, e-mailing to our friends, etc.
It’s disturbing that the MSM and blogosphere members of the “base” have gone over to cheering for Obama, but I wonder how effective that’s going to be.
I’d really like to see a story or two on: the number of “unsubscribes” [or just plain lack of responses] to the e-mail barrages by OFA, DNC, DCCC, DSCC and their ilk; and the level of contributions in response to these tin cup mailings.
I know I used to give as best I could [I'm shocked in going over 2008 records to see how those amounts added up], but now I write a nasty response to accompany my “unsubscribe,” or just delete. They sure don’t get a dime.
The White House knows the polls, and the intensity polls, better than anyone. Their unconcern, and continued screwing, about the base indicates to me that the makeup of congress isn’t a concern of Orahma. Think about it….easier to enact the policies they favor with a Democratic or Republican congress? Now, instead of the year long kabuki they had to go through to get their sweet deals into place in HCR (mandates, no po, etc., all without leaving their fingerprints on it)….the GOP can simply create the bills Orahma wants without all the hand waving. How do they lose?
They probably figure on running in 2012 as a brake on GOP excesses. Good luck with that.
a) Clinton stole everyone’s wallet when he was in office,
b) He is famously the king of crocodile tears, spin, and repentance as a PR mechanism.
That’s certainly out of Rahm’s 1994/1996 playbook.
However, “fool me once . . . ” And this time I hope there will be more folks pointing out the strategy.
I think that you and I are probably considered to be alienated primary voters – and primary voters are a very important minority in the party. Even if, nationwide, we only amount to a few percent of the voters that the Democrats would normally count on to turn out in droves, a loss of a few percent in the normally closely divided elections nationwide could easily swing elections to Republicans in many places. Whether we are representative of a core “base” for the Democrats or just an alienated fraction of the minority which is primary voters, alienating us was a very bad idea.
Do you think there are any “true” or “decent” Democrats [members of Congress] out there who realize what’s going on — how they’ve basically been completely neutered and will now be forced to go along with every piece of crap Obama proposes?
And how are the environmental groups feeling this morning? Was the CAFE standards thing enough to shut them up re off-shore drilling?
How could anyone be completely stupid enough to think republicks would do better with the economy? Can anyone be brain dead enough not to remember who got us into the mess we are currently in?
The acute stupidity of the people in this country never ceases to amaze me.
But getting repulicans elected is a great idea right…
Census jobs and termporary & part-time jobs are a far cry from reducing real unemployment.
Living standards are sinking, taxes are rising from the poor and middle class, and costs are rising (food, health insurance, gasoline, etc.).
People are getting more angry, not less.
We are going to have another “change” election in 2010.
“Because, even as good as last month’s numbers were compared to the past three years, we will still need much stronger jobs growth if we really want to bring down unemployment.”
I think the first problem is seeing that the numbers are supposedly good in the first place. All that it is saying is that Obama delivered Bush employment numbers, which is nothing to cheer about. Also the talk about the recession being over is of little consequence as a recession stopping doesn’t mean that there is economic expansion. The recession could be over and we could have permanent double digit unemployment as high unemployment and lack of a recession are not mutually exclusive. If all else fails Obama will go to war with Iran in an attempt to raise the poll numbers – Diego Garcia is standing by with the bunker busters ready to go.
Well newsflash to Rahm: not only do I always turn out in both the primary & general, but I bring a lot of voters with me, through phone banking, canvassing, and that quaint “e-mailing to friends.”
I think there’s a multiplier effect [re what we "energized voters"] can do — and what that effect is going to mean if it’s not there — that they’re totally miscalculating.
Gregg Levine has a new post available: Lincoln Crushed in Cash Race with Halter; Will Soon Mess Up Derivative Reform
Without doubt, the Stimulus has been an unqualified success. Too bad the Democrats don’t get as much of a boast politically from their successes at avoiding disasters as Republicans get when their failures cause and/or lead to the disasters in the first place.
Still, the Democrats have certainly squandered a lot of historic opportunities to do great things.
They don’t deserve my support going into Nov 2010.
And we are looking directly at the grads in June and the kids looking for summer jobs. Going to get tough out there.
It would be interesting if someone could calculate what the effect of the Stimulus would look like if all those fucking tax cuts weren’t in it, and were replaced with real “stimulus $$$$.”
Tell me about it: I’ve got a kid graduating from college in May.
Agreed!
Good luck. I have one daughter, single mom, who is unemployed now because they downsized at the SPCA. She’s looking.
“Can anyone be brain dead enough not to remember who got us into the mess we are currently in?
The acute stupidity of the people in this country never ceases to amaze me.”
Yes, it was a combination of corporatist Republicans and corporatist Democrats with a special hat tip to Bill Clinton and Phil Gramm. I do agree though that it never ceases to amaze me how people can get bamboozled with Obama and how he hired Bush’s economic team to be his own economic team into somehow believing things are new or different than what has gone on under the prior administration.
Fair enough, but it would be a moot point had there not been the 2009 Stimulus.
I’m not trying to vindicate the Democrats, who’ve been a disappointment even by their own standards. Nor am I saying that they deserve support in 2010. I’m just pointing out that they have had a few successes.
Indeed, they could be doing far better politically right now had they acted like leaders rather than sellouts when great reforms were possible.
Just read Hugh’s diary. Wow… truer words were never written. As much as I worry about what the R’s will do, I have to admit there is no daylight between them and the elected d’s. Orahma is a bluedog thru and thru.
I am willing to vote for someone other than a D. We have to do something. There doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to stand up for the working stiffs in this country any longer. The supreme clown ruling will make this even harder.
Better to have properly labeled Republicans than phony dems. This year has set back progressive causes immeasurably. Msm has 85% of the country believing these are liberal policies. The nutcases think this is socialism. Fuck the dems. Let’s take over the green party and start over.
If things are good or getting better, no one has to tell you about it unless you work in DC. Those jobs reports get revised continuously. Not to mention we need about 150,000 jobs every month just to keep up with population, etc. So maybe we broke even for the month.. And if “Republican Obstructionism” keeps unemployment from getting extended to thousands of families. Well, it sucks for them but that brings down the unemployment numbers, making the Democrats look less odious.. Well that’s just pragmatic politicin’ at its finest.
Its an upside down world. I’m thinking I might actually vote Republican for the first time in my life. It took George Bush to get Dems to nominate someone who pretended to be almost progressive, maybe it takes Sarah Palin to get them to nominate some one who actually is progressive. At least it will be fashionable to be against the war and constitutional infringements again. Plus after giving someone money based on complete lies, I can at least say I stood up for myself. So, maybe Nader, maybe Palin herself (or Ron Paul) if the Dems can’t be bother to Primary Obama. I won’t vote for a war criminal. The Big Orange could justify reelecting Stalin or Hitler if they were on the “D” ticket.
Jobs? Don’t need no steenking jobs! As long as Wall Street, the banks and all major corporate political contributors are having mega profits, that’s all that matters to Dems, Reps, or the media.
I wasn’t disagreeing with you Knox, I was just trying to extend your analysis.
I was just wondering today — and realizing the danger of bringing “Nazi” into the conversation — but wondering nonetheless: what was it like in Germany as the Nazis came to power? Were folks who issued warnings treated to the derision heaped upon people here who’ve tried to sound the alarm about health “care,” FISA, TARP etc.? [I know that once the Nazis assumed power, critics were killed, but what about before they got to the pinnacle?]
This is NOT to say Obama = Nazi, but just a question of how people can speak out against a bad, repressionist regime. Is opposition doomed to failure, to await the next “swing” of the political pendulum back to something approaching normalcy?
Seems fairly likely that the bailouts will finally prove that Reagan’s trickle down, so widely praised by Rs and Ds, is just about to prove successful. At some point the Wall Street banksters and their DC employees will almost certainly need to give their newest Gucci loafers a new shine and at that point the jobs will start rolling in.
Another possibility is that a third party candidate actually wins because people are so “disenfranchised” from BOTH parties. Example, Jesse Ventura who became governor of Minnesota in 1998 ran as a member of the Reform party against Democrats and Republicans and won.
President Obama is a corporate “New Way Democrat”.
Obama: I am a New Democrat
We therefore, will continue to see a conservative agenda. If Republicans did become the majority in Congress, the President will use former President Clinton’s method of “triangulation” and we will go further down the conservative route. The problem is, this route has been eroding the country for decades.
Situation is the worse since WW2 ended – we are above 6 million that have been unemployed more than 6 months.
Job transfer to other countries continues because when Obama copied Hillary and called for the end of the tax code rules that make sending jobs out of country a subsidized move – well – Obama lied. He has not even submitted a bill or a suggestion for change to Congress – after a year in office.
I do not get it. How can Obama and the Dems get the blame for a failed economy that he did not create?
They should only be blamed for things they did not “try” to improve…the economy and health care ring bells?
The republicans have tried to stop/block every attempt to improve our economy and they will get credit for that?
What a crazy political climate….
We should be continuing to pound home to folks what we are doing and continue to ask the republican candidates what they stand for and where were they and where are they when the dems are trying to make things better !!!
Keep Pounding Away !!!!
We want answers !!
The Democrats only control the House, the Senate and the Presidency – do we have to be a one-party country before you hold them responsible for being in charge? Though I’m certain Democrats will pretend they are powerless as they continue to enact corporatist legislation as we saw the kabuki theater of the Democrats claiming to support the PO but claiming there weren’t 60 votes for it and then exposing themselves for liars with their purported support of the PO when they no longer went along the 60 vote path.