A new Courier-Journal Bluegrass/WHAS-TV poll of the Kentucky Senate race conducted by SurveyUSA shows that the likely general election matchup will between Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican Rand Paul.

In the Democratic primary, Dan Mongiardo has a strong lead over his Democratic challengers. Forty-five percent of likely Democratic primary voters selected Mongiardo, while Jack Conway, his closest rival and only other candidate in double digits, was selected by only 27% of likely primary voters.

In the Republican race, Rand Paul has a 15-point lead over his closest Republican opponent, Trey Grayson. The poll has Paul with 42% to Grayson’s 27%. The one caveat for the poll is that Rand Paul draws strongly form supporters of his father Ron Paul’s presidential campaign and people who identify themselves as libertarians.The younger Paul’s unique appeal might allow him to draw in many new people to the process who are not likely Republican primary voters, making the Kentucky Republican primary difficult to poll.

As of this moment, it appears the general election will likely be a match between Dan Mongiadro and Rand Paul. The final question in the poll was a generic ballot question asking people “If the General Election for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate?” The result was a statistical tie with the Republican candidate at 43%, the Democratic candidate at 42%, and with 16% undecided. This should put Kentucky clearly in the target column for the DSCC in a year with few bright spots of Senate Democrats. Of course, Rand Paul is not quite what one would call a “generic Republican,” which is why the Kentucky Senate race will probably turn into one of the most watched races this election cycle.