Heh. Pardon me while I skip on over to DKos, where the members of the small-but-vocal group that demonizes FDL has been trying to slag the FDL/SUSA poll as inaccurate.

Yeah I saw that, Nate Silver was cited about a billion times saying it wasn’t accurate.

Funny that a Congressman would retire over an inaccurate poll. You’d think his own polling might have to indicate the same thing before he’d take that kind of big step.

You go, Phoenix Woman!

The Daily Kos nonsense is contagious, unfortunately. Take a look at some of the bs at The Seminal today…

What does this mean for Blanche Lincoln?

Friday news dump!

And btw, speaking of Nate Silver, is the debate between him and Jon rescheduled?

Too bad it wasn’t Mike Ross who was declining to run again in AR. But this is symptomatic of the complete demoralization of the Democratic base. No matter how much Obama & crew “launch the propaganda”, Dems know when they’re being sold out. The GOPers will run hard against “The Evil Mandate” in this legislation and it will stick. I see 25-30 seats lost in the House and 2-3 Senate seats. Let’s hope the losses are steep among Blue Dogs, New Dems, and DINOs.

I’m hoping Coakley loses in MA and HIR is defeated in the Senate. Dems can then blame the GOP for killing the reform(even though it wasn’t) and start again using reconciliation.

Come to think of it, what does this mean for AR-02? Wide open primary?

Too bad it wasn’t Mike Ross who was declining to run again in AR.

I thought the same thing! Too bad.

But this is symptomatic of the complete demoralization of the Democratic base. No matter how much Obama & crew “launch the propaganda”, Dems know when they’re being sold out.

Agreed. Now who wants to try to explain this unfortunate truth to Jason Rosenbaum, who calls the view of a MA progressive who won’t vote for Coakley “a load of crap” and who calls people who agree with that MA progressive “idiots”?

Jim Cooper next, please.

He looks pretty old, maybe he’s just tired.

I guess it’s comforting to think that none of you fuckers will ever see one iota of your agenda enacted. Good job pushing a good Democrat, who voted for a bill with a public option without any qualms, despite the fact his district opposed it (and the PPP poll showed they opposed it WITH a public option). The next time you’re crying in your bong that our government isn’t passing progressive policies, remember that Vic Snyder was on your side until you decided to push him out.

Morons.

I’d like to see Jim Cooper unceremoniously booted by a primary challenger. His seat in TN is in far more Democratic (Nashville) territory. His constituents would go for a real Democrat if they were given a choice.

Short of a primary challenger taking him out, I think that sleazy, mealy-mouthed ass is safe.

You do realize that the failures in ’09 were entirely those of sellout Democrats, don’t you?

Democrats are entirely to blame for what’s about to happen to them electorally in 2010, which is pathetic in the wake of their ’06 and ’08 victories.

You want Democrats to get the moral high-ground and momentum back? Start calling them out for failing miserably. It is the best way by far.

oh please. Tell me how Vic Snyder “failed.” He supported your agenda 100% and you pushed him out of the fucking race with a poll that turned around and fucked you in the ass.

how did a poll push him out of the race? it just measured the support he had. Sad as it is, it wasn’t there.

Does calling everyone names make you feel better?

We did that with a poll? Wow. Think you need a refresher on what polls are, what they’re for, and how they work.

The problem for everyone with a “D” after his or her name in 2010 is that many Democrats betrayed core Democratic Party principles.

We can start with sellout Obama, for one. The failure of the Democratic Party to stand for what the Democratic Party was supposed to stand for will trickle down to every Democrat in 2010.

I’m not happy about it at all.

FDL commissioned the poll. Because you’re not happy with what leaders stand for, you welcome the defeat of Democrats who do…good job asshole. That’s very fucking productive.

Does cutting off your nose to spite your face make you feel accomplished?

***as moderator***

do not attack the messenger — disagree with the message but no flaming of the person

Ahh, good to see you on duty m’dear!

*slides beverage Suz’s way*

thanks for the fresh cuppa coffee — looks like i’m gonna need it

Did FireDogLake sponsor this poll, or didn’t it, and did it not find that nearly half the district opposes ANY bill and only 25% wanted a bill with no requirement to carry private healthcare?

You guys just shot yourself in the foot with this poll and you’re spinning it like it’s a great thing.

When did I say that I welcome the defeat of Democrats?

I wrote that I’d welcome Jim Cooper facing a primary challenger. That would be good for Democrats.

I wrote that fake Democrats like Mike Ross and Blanche Lincoln need to be shown the door as fast as possible. That would be good for Democrats.

Frankly, I’d say I care more about the Democratic Party winning elections – which they would if leaders of the Democratic Party would act like Democrats – than you do.

You do know that nearly half means a minority, right?

I don’t know why you’re so angry at FDL for taking a poll, which just measures public sentiment, it doesn’t change it.

If you want to look for blame for who’s changing that sentiment, well the Democrats in Washington DC need only look in the mirror.

thank you — nicely done

I’ll gladly say it.

I WELCOME THE DEFEAT OF DEMOCRATS.

They deserve every loss they’re about to suffer. It’s just too damned bad their “punishment” will be going off to work for those same corporations they’ve been working for as a member of Congress, only now with a huge raise.

Assholes.

Are you saying polls are causative of a result? I thought polls are measurements, not causers of results.

And predicting results is also not causative of results, no matter what entity does the polling or predicting.

And please point to “spin” language in DDay’s post. I’m not seeing it.

I looked at criticisms of bias in poll and found them significant. Which means, to my amateur but informed eye, that the poll was probably biased. That does not mean that the single numeric conclusion is inaccurate.

I think it does FDL no tribute to word Qs, organize their order, etc. in an unprofessional way. If FDL is going to conduct polls, it should adhere to the highest standards. Clearly USAToday is not in that category.

You are making the same mistake that those who attack Dem incumbents without a positive alternative are doing. Stop it..

That said: I agree with your point. It is silly and destructive to attack and try to damage Democratic incumbents.for relatively minor divergence from pure liberalism while not offering a positive alternative.

I introduced and it was repeated in an earlier thread today, in my view, the more effective approach; that being to get ourselves into power at the local level and develop progressive candidates as an alternative to the Blue Dogs.

Hang on a minute — To be honest, I’m not really into following or supporting anti-choice AR democrats — however, I just did a search Synder + public option — and found out that no he wasn’t with us a 100%. So what are you talking about?

http://arkansasnews.com/2009/08/18/snyder-public-option-not-necessary-for-health-care-reform/

If Democrats are going to screw over the American people, then I agree with you: they deserve to lose big time.

I’m just saying that I wish it were different. I’d rather have a Democratic Party that stands for what they say it stands for and see Democrats succeed in every sense.

The voters handed them a huge vote of confidence, and Obama and the sellouts shit all over it.

Do you have any reason to believe that Nate’s criticisms weren’t also biased? Because he’s not been unbiased in this “debate” till now.

I thought some of the points sounded right, but the one critisism he made regarding the question mentioning the fine but not alternative sounded to me like he was advocating FOR push polling. I.E., adding in language to get a desired result.

I’m not going to argue with you since my eye is less trained than yours. I simply want to point out that it’s possible Nate’s own biases are creeping into his “professional” hats.

Possible. I didn’t say it was the explanation, as I’m NOT an expert, or even a layman, on polling.

See my 28. Please don’t confuse an accurate prediction with an accurate process. You are much too smart for that.

I looked at Nate’s criticisms on the merits, as I understand them. I have done only 2 polls with U. Mich consumer survey, so my experience is limited. But I learned a lot about wording Qs and ordering them from that small experience. U Mich is top drawer when it comes to economic surveys.

Who’s on the bench in AR-02?

So what was he suggesting the result was? (Sorry, he’s lost me as a reader so I’m not clicking there). Would you mind answering for me if you read it?

Is he saying opposition to the mandate was probably too high? Is he saying support for health care reform was too low? I certainly hope he isn’t saying there’s any material effect regarding the race itself, because I’m quite sure that politicians have plenty of internal polls and there’s no way he would withdraw unless his internals were telling him the same thing.

From what I’ve gathered from his criticisms, I think he’s simply saying that to draw conclusions as to WHY Snyder was doing so poorly was probably invalid due to some of the questions. Am I wrong on that?

Like I said, some of his points (that I’ve seen repeated here) seemed legitimate to me, but at least one sounded like he was also a little guilty himself.

If you’d rather not answer, I understand. Fact is I probably should go over there and read it myself. But I’m just a little angry at him right now because IMO he’s selling out too over his love for Obama. IMO.

Tim Griffin is an abomination, a Karl Rove gofer who ran a Republican obstruction team in Florida in 2000 and was one of Rove’s gofers in the White House thereafter. He’s a former Army lawyer with a thin resume padded by wingnut welfare and his utility to Karl Rove.

Rove got him appointed without senate confirmation as a USA in Arkansas, until the USA firing scandal made his tenure impossible. His motto in Florida 2000 he stole from the Gladiator – “Unleash hell!” He’s a minion for powerful people who should not be let loose as an elected official from anywhere.

Is Tim Griffin Karl Rove’s friend who was prominent in the US attorney’s scandals?

Sorry..didn’t read #37

I’m not talking about the outcome, I’m criticizing the process, as I mentioned to Jane in 33. Forecasting is a fraught business; some have called it a loser’s profession. I did forecasting of the U.S. economy for several decades. It is easy to be right for the wrong reasons (mostly my competitors *g*), and wrong for the right reason (mostly me *g*). My philosophy is that, in the forecasting business, you’ll perform better if you have better models and better tools (don’t know anyone who’s tried to document that, but you gotta have a philosophy to do your job). The “science” of survey design, to my nodding acquaintance, is well advanced. From what I know, Nate hit on salient points. There is no reason to have poor process. Might as well flip a coin, which is right half of the time.

Also, the survey design that FDL sent yesterday was also fraught with problems, as indicated in this thread. Just love that word “fraught” today.

We didn’t write the poll, SurveyUSA did. We chose them because they’re non-partisan, they had the lowest average error in the 2008 and both Kos and Nate Silver have given them the highest accolades in the past. But if you have evidence of otherwise, please let us know, we’re very interested in keeping the highest standards in our polling.

Tim. Griffin. does anyone else pronounce that “Unindicted Co-conspirator”?
What’s that fellow got going FOR him? If Democrats can’t keep him out of elected office (or get him put in jail), we are in trouble!

My only evidence is Nate’s criticisms, which pass my smell test, and the comments about the FDL survey I linked, and with which I agree. My contact at UMich was Richard Curtin. My last contact with him was several decades ago, but he taught me all I know. If he is not yet retired, try curtin@umich.edu wrt Qs on surveys. As I said, from what I’ve seen and what little I know, FDL surveys are hopelessly amateur. I am not familiar with SurveyUSA, but from what I have observed, they don’t seem like an intellectually reliable partner. I could be wrong. YMMV

One other suggestion. Don’t read Nate’s criticisms as dishonest. Pretend, even thoug you might disagree, that they might be honest. I see your defense of choice of surveyor for valid reasons, but do you know enough about surveyors to trust your selection? Seems to me that a lot more investigation might be warranted.

yeah yeah James Clyburn said the same thing, did he or didn’t he VOTE for the public option in the end?

The most conservative Democrats you can imagine…enjoy!

yeah great, I feel wonderful, 48% want no bill at all, another 22% want a bill that isn’t progressive.

But we got the other 25%! We’re 1/4 of the way there!

You have names of potential candidates, or is that just a general slam against Arkansas?

A little of both. Considering all of the potential candidates, such as Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, are to the right of Snyder…because of how right this district has become…I’d be surprised if we see a true liberal run here, forget about winning.

Vic’s my congressman. He is a good one, and I am very unhappy about this. I believe the Washington Independent, and I am very unhappy with this site. We had a chance for progress after 40 years of regress, and tantrum throwers on our side threw it away. Shame on you.

I thought some of Nate’s observations were valid (question order might have been better, for instance), but some I just had to shrug at. What it looked like to me in some cases was that no one else asked the questions that way, so, since the numbers looked rather different, Nate was suspicious of them.

And while I agree that Jane should look at it dispassionately, it’s pretty clear from the language of his article that Nate wasn’t.

Still trying to work out what you were talking about when you were trying to tell us this DINO was 100% with us? Also, I’m trying to find this vote — do you have the roll call link I would interested in having a look at it — Thanks?

OMFG http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll887.xml

He’s a made man with Karl Rove. Why probably relates to his knowing where the bodies are buried.

Just for the record, I find it hard to believe that Vic Snyder decided to spend more time with his family based on this poll. My guess is that Jane’s right at #2, either he had his own polls, or some other poll data is available. No one in his right mind trusts one poll from an inexperienced organization like FDL when making a decision of that magnitude. I’ll do Snyder the favor of assuming that he’s in his right mind.

Look up post hoc ergo propter hoc for further edification.

That was quick. Passed by twothree votes.

Thanks…

I thought you meant there was separate bill on the public option — Did you really think he thought it was going to be in the final bill, esp. after his comments to his constituents? Or is it more likely it voted because he wanted the Stupek language in there?

Guess we have to pick up two House seats elsewhere to cover the gap. Sad that he bowed out now; it’s a long time politically until November.

Sounds like progressives in Arkansas need to start building a bench of candidates from city councils up.

However, if I remember rightly Lieberman came out immediately to say that there was no way the PO was going to be in the final bill. And I think we knew back then Lieberman had veto, not Obama.

So what exactly is your point?

That based on the polling in Arkansas, Snyder should oppose the bill?

WELL I AGREE!!! I hope he does just that.

Jane doesn’t have to defend SUSA — Nate himself did, about seven months ago, and declared them to be not just the second-least biased pollster out there, but in fact the very-least-biased of the big coast-to-coast pollsters:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/pollster-ratings-v311.html

If you think this bill is progress, then you must be a health insurance CEO. Sorry we let you down. Now you’ll only get $20 million bonuses instead of $30 million?

And btw, what exactly do you mean by “threw it away?” Last I heard, this bill was PASSING. (Well, nevermind. I guess passing this bill is THROWING AWAY all hope for real change in the future, so I guess I do see what you mean by throwing it away.)

Arrrgh, make that “a little over a year and a half ago” — it was May 2008, not May 2009.

No Snyder had always been a yes vote with a public option, he simply said it wasn’t necessary, not that he would oppose it

and he wasn’t one of those who would’ve voted no if there was no Stupak Amendment. A lot of those who voted for it would’ve voted for the bill without out…that’s why it passed by a large margin.

They tried that and their candidates lost for the most part. There isn’t a big enough progressive base in Arkansas.

What happened to the old New Deal folks and the Fulbright folks and even the liberal education governor Clinton folks? Some of those types (the so-called Jessecrats) are beginning to come home in NC. It’s time for progressives in the South to stop hunkering down, run on issues that folks care about, but give the solutions from progressive principles, and do the hard legwork to get candidates elected. Off-year city elections have proven to be wonderful opportunities; all you have to do is figure out what turnout you need to get to the polls, put up a candidate who is written off, and capitalize on the other candidate(s) thinking they have a walk in the park. Once you elect one with a progressive brand and they perform well, it is easier to become competitive. It hardslogging; don’t give up. If you have the geographic reach, see if you can capture a bunch of small town council positions even if you can break into Little Rock politics. There is not a precinct in this country without one hunkered down progressive in it.

I’m not convinced — From what I’ve read from the AR papers he was never going to be a definite YES vote — Also, on his house.gov as far as I can see he’s never stated his case/record for a PO.

http://www.house.gov/snyder/healthcare-initiatives.shtml

However, I did notice he was a big supporter of Stupak at the time, and don’t see why it would be hard to believe that [behind the scenes] he used a token PO vote in exchange for that vile Stupak language going in.

“…Rep. Vic Snyder, D-Ark., told a generally friendly crowd last week in the latest town-hall style meeting on health care reform that he wasn’t “a big fan of the public option” and didn’t believe anyone should be forced to participate in it.

However, the Little Rock physician and Democrat who represents central Arkansas in Congress said such a public option provision is not likely to be included in whatever bill comes out of the current health care reform debate in Congress….”

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5248/is_34_26/ai_n39169341/

— Still shocked it even came to the floor in the first place. Even now Stupak is trying to fling his weight around, saying he has buddies that are behind him to put Stupak in as a deal breaker — is Snyder one of them? If not, how do you know?

NYTimes: “…Stupak saying he and 10 or 11 others, whom he would not name, will vote against a final bill that does not meet his standards,…”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/us/politics/07stupak.html?pagewanted=1&hp

As David Dayen says “…there’s a HUGE universe of yes-to-no flips that are at least possible.” I’m sure that Snyder and others knew that Lieberman and Nelson were going get that PO out of the bill asap… and he was right.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/01/13/why-emanuel-cleaver-knows-the-health-care-bill-is-in-trouble/

This is Arkansas…a black man won the Presidency…the end

It really is that simple.

Let me be more specific, when Lyndon Johnson said “we have lost the south for a generation” he meant Arkansas. Keep in mind that after 1964, Arkansas, while Democratic locally, only voted for two more Democratic Presidential candidate, Southerner Jimmy Carter and Arkansas-native Bill Clinton…that was it. Social issues took over for those New Dealers, they oppose civil rights, they oppose abortion rights, they oppose gay rights, and the more the Democratic Party got involved in those issues in the 70′s and 80′s, the harder it became for progressives to win in Arkansas.

Whoever you nominate is almost certainly going to be anti-choice and anti-gay, and will run from progressives like cats from a dog.

They tried that and their candidates lost for the most part. There isn’t a big enough progressive base in Arkansas.

There are progressives and potential progressives there and as well populists. You can’t expect to launch a candidate and immediately get him/her elected. Even permitting the expression of progressive values in most of these Blue Dog local parties is a chore. Have to have a longer range plan and start getting onto county committees and finding progressives who are willing to campaign in primaries knowing they will likely lose initially but they will get some media coverage at least and as our values are enunciated a constituency can be built to eventually win some elections.

I have had it sitting here in my southern red state hearing nothing but hand wringing and Blue Dogs cursing “elite liberals.” Even our Mayor who calls himself a Democrat refused to let our County party endorse him!

Don’t expect to win but demand a voice and eventually you may hear more than just an echo of your own voice.

“…and he wasn’t one of those who would’ve voted no if there was no Stupak Amendment. A lot of those who voted for it would’ve voted for the bill without out…that’s why it passed by a large margin…”

OK I see what you mean — he’s anti-choice, but didn’t put his name to the ‘knife at the neck’ letter to Pelosi.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/god-and-country/2009/07/01/conservative-democrats-warn-against-funding-abortion-in-healthcare-reform.html

http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/11/clyburn_abortion_provision_only_got_us_ten_votes.php

God this bill needs to die.

We need a PLC (Progressive Leadership Council)

So young fellah, whatcha gonna do for an encore? Helluva way to launch yer new FDL venue:
1. Take poll
2. Publish poll
3. Get faxed withdrawal announcenment from subject of poll.

Way to go, Jon, congratulations, sir!

Yes, we’ve been doing this for decades and it hasn’t gotten us anywhere.

The progressive bogs are to blame for the current malaise of the progressive electorate.

When I turned 18, the first opportunity I had to vote was a presidential primary in the 70′s, I voted for Shirley Chisholm, so I will put my liberal bona fides up against anyone.

The fact is that the progressive blogs over played their hands demonizing the health bill.

All the liberal blogs, not just FDL, need to wake up to the fact that they are doing to the Democratic party what the Wing Nuts have done to the Republican party, they have driven up the negatives on all Dems, not the Blue Dogs or Conservadems but moderate and liberal Dems.

Most Americans do not read blogs, they do not spend time poring over polls or comparing voting records, they want to back a winner that will help them with their problems. That means we have to support the party while we work to change it. If we lose MA, the loss will be squarely on the heads of the progressive blogs.

Time to turn the vitriol off and start looking to repairing the damage to the psyche of the progressive voters or the 2010 will be a disaster. Then we are back to winning symbolic victories, when we need real victories at the polls. It’s shades of 2000 where progressives called for a pox on all parties and we ended up with Bush. (yea I know he stole the election but if people had voted for Gore instead of Nader there would have been no change to steal the election)