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Why You Won’t See Much of Obama on the Campaign Trail

By: Friday August 29, 2014 10:25 am

President Obama has never shown must interest in campaign for other Democrats and it has now gotten to the point that even if he wanted to he would probably end up doing more harm than good.

Not only has Obama’s approval rating been negative for almost a year but the number of people excited about him has also plummeted. The percent of people who strongly disapprove of Obama is now more than double the number who strongly approve of him. From Gallup:

President Barack Obama's Approval Ratings, by Intensity

Obama campaigning in a swing state or swing district could end up doing more to rally Republicans than it would to rally Democrats, so don’t expect him to make many stops which aren’t fund raising.

Any victories by Democrats this year will be mostly in spite of Obama, not because of him.

Iowa Senate Race Is a Dead Heat

By: Thursday August 28, 2014 2:44 pm

Bruce Braley does have a slight edge when comparing favorable/unfavorable numbers

At this moment the most competitive Senate race in the country is in Iowa. The open senate seat created by the retirement of Tom Harkin (D) is a dead heat according to two new polls of the state.

The Suffolk/USA Today poll found both Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley with 40 percent support among likely voters. A plethora of minor candidates have around one percent each and 15 percent remain undecided in the race.

The result is essentially the same as the result of the PPP Survey, also out this week. It found Barley at 42 percent and Ernst at 41 percent when all the minor candidates where included. In just a head-to-head matchup, they are tied with 42 percent each.

One small advantage for Braley is that his favorable rating is marginally better than his Republican opponent’s in both polls. According to Suffolk, 41 percent view him favorably while 35 percent see him unfavorably. By comparison, Ernst’s favorable rating is 41/41. It is not much but in an extremely close race any little bit can make a difference.

Republican Base Is Far More Tuned In to the Midterm Election

By: Thursday August 28, 2014 11:32 am

In yet another sign of the Democratic enthusiasm gap this year, Gallup found that regular Republicans are paying far more attention to the election than regular Democrats. From Gallup:

Thought Given to Upcoming Election for Congress, by Political Party

At this point 42 percent of Republicans have given at least some thought to the upcoming election while only 27 percent of Democrats have. Even Independents are paying more attention with 32 percent having thought at least some about the contests.

Democrats have a broad but shallow foundation of support. Their big challenge is to figure out how to get these potential supporters to come out for non-Presidential elections and it looks like so far this year they haven’t solved the puzzle.

New York Times Won’t Endorse Gov. Cuomo in the Democratic Primary

By: Tuesday August 26, 2014 3:40 pm

While New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) is still the big favorite to win both the primary and the general election, he received a powerful rebut Tuesday when the New York Time editorial board choose not to endorse anyone in the Democratic primary. From the New York Times: Mr. Cuomo became governor on that platform [...]

NH Sen: Scott Brown Within Striking Distance of Jeanne Shaheen

By: Friday August 22, 2014 10:37 am

Republican Scott Brown’s decision to move to another state may actually allow him to get back into the Senate. A new WMUR Granite State Poll¬†found the New Hampshire Senate race is extremely close. If the election were held today 46 percent would vote to re-elect Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and 44 percent would vote for Brown. [...]

North Carolina Senate Race Is Extremely Close

By: Thursday August 21, 2014 12:31 pm

Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s run for re-election in North Carolina is shaping up to be one of the closest and most important elections of the cycle. Two new polls out this week show Hagan with only a tiny lead over Republican Thom Tillis and indicates that the Libertarian candidate possibly a big factor. According to [...]

Strong Initial Support for Insurance Rate Control Initiative in California

By: Thursday August 21, 2014 10:35 am

Efforts to give the California government more control over premium increases are off to a good start. Proposition 45, the Public Notice Required for Insurance Company Rates Initiative, currently has strong support, according to a new Field Poll. 69 percent of likely voters plan are inclined to vote yes on Prop 45 while only 16 [...]

The Number of Anti-Obamacare Ads Are Down for Now

By: Tuesday August 19, 2014 12:56 pm

Over at Bloomberg Heidi Przybyla crunched the numbers and found the frequency of anti-Obamacare campaign ads is down noticeably from a few months ago in key Senate races like North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana. From Bloomberg: In April, anti-Obamacare advertising dwarfed all other spots in North Carolina. It accounted for 3,061, or 54 percent, of [...]

Minimum Wage Increase Will Be on the Ballot in Nebraska

By: Monday August 18, 2014 1:06 pm

While efforts to increase the minimum wage at the federal level have are basically dead for the moment, some real progress is being made at the state and local level. Not only have state legislatures and city councils moved forward with new laws this year but activist campaigns have managed to put the issue on [...]

Popularity of Congress Remains Extremely Low, but 90% Expected to Win Re-election

By: Monday August 18, 2014 10:12 am

The percentage of Americans who think most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected this November continues to remain near record lows. From Gallup: While significantly more people think their own House member deserves re-election — 50 percent –¬† that number is notably lower than most recent elections. This mid-term election is going to be [...]

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